2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[tjstarling]

Trump approval +9 in Florida.

[tjstarling]

It is still early and I have no idea how this will shake out, but maybe we all owe Hillary a big apology. Maybe she was never the problem and maybe Trump was always going to win 2016.

[tjstarling]

It is still early and I have no idea how this will shake out, but maybe we all owe Hillary a big apology. Maybe she was never the problem and maybe Trump was always going to win 2016.

Biden's running the same campaign. Maybe courting Republicans isn't a smart strategy.

If you think someone like Warren or Sanders would have or would be doing better, I think you’re very much mistaken.

[tjstarling]

The socialist messaging has had an outsized impact on SOME Latinos. That seems evident.

[tjstarling]

The socialist messaging has had an outsized impact on SOME Latinos. That seems evident.

But...who thinks Biden is a socialist?

Did people just convince themselves that AOC would be some kind of shadow leader of the country?

It’s not about Biden. It his association with the Democratic Party. They may not buy that Biden himself is socialist but they might attach that affiliation to the party itself and that matters more. I also think Hispanics swing to the incumbent party. Look at 1996, 2004, 2012.

[tjstarling]

The socialist messaging has had an outsized impact on SOME Latinos. That seems evident.

Which is why Bernie never should have been given a serious platform.  He’d be doing worse right now.

Biden won Cubans in the Florida primary, that turned out well for him tonight. Making extrapolations from the primary is foolish.
Keep telling yourself that.

https://twitter.com/ChuckRocha/status/1235164745189257216

[tjstarling]

Why hasn’t Wasserman tweeted?

[tjstarling]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

If Trump wins, how is this statement true? His campaign is all about being against stuff not for stuff. That’s his appeal. What’s evident more than ever is many people don’t vote ideologically, vote for a candidate that resembles themselves.

[tjstarling]

1976 redux?

[tjstarling]

Trump's destroying Biden on Suffolk, NY

The cops and firefighters really are helping Trump there

Nassau is Democratic

I’ll give you credit, you really do stick to a script

[tjstarling]

Once again, I’m going to stick up for Hillary. She got a ton of sh** for how bad she did in the Midwest (some of it was deserved). But she’s doing better than white male woking class Joe Biden in the Youngstown area.  And don’t get me wrong she was a flawed candidate who ran a flawed campaign, but maybe much of 2016 wasn’t her fault and more just the ground shifting underneath her. I think the results tonight lend some credence to the notion that I don’t think you can definitively say any other Democrat but Hillary would’ve beaten Trump.

[tjstarling]

AOC calls out Biden and Democratic Party over failure to win Latinx vote:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/aoc-twitter-biden-election-results-latino-voters-b1578094.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1604465253

Let’s see her do better

[tjstarling]

It seems some of the Democrats on this board have already gotten to the bargaining stage

It's clear to me that if Biden loses this, Democrats are going to go hard to the left and nominate a truly progressive nominee of the Sanders mold in 2024. I'm now starting to think Sanders, had he been the nominee, might be doing better, because he had real appeal with younger and Hispanic voters.

Who he couldn’t turn out in a primary. This is a high engagement election which was supposed to be advantage democrats. Clearly that wasn’t the case.

[tjstarling]

One pattern I've noticed: in 2016, Sanders had surprising strength with WWC in rust belt, and sure enough, Hillary bled votes with those voters. In 2020, Sanders had surprising strength with Hispanics, and sure enough, Joe bled votes with Hispanics.

This makes no sense

[tjstarling]

AOC calls out Biden and Democratic Party over failure to win Latinx vote:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/aoc-twitter-biden-election-results-latino-voters-b1578094.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1604465253

lol AOC.
You aren't electable on nationwide level, why are you trying to preach?

Our wing had the keys to win the Hispanic vote pretty much everywhere outside of Florida.

Not really. If your wing got the keys, then the soft Latino vote probably would have been spooked even more and we'd be even farther off from winning FL.

He literally said except Florida. Even if Mr. Electable pulls it out narrowly the Senate is f***ed. "NeverBernie" trolls have no room to assert themselves tonight.

Look at how the rest of the party’s candidates are doing. This isn’t “Mr. Electable’s” problem.  Why is the dog so difficult for people to see but this has very little to do with ideology or electability?

[tjstarling]

Fk Bernie, Warren, and AOC forever.

Keep broadcasting that contempt. Watch the base become smaller and more elite.

But how are the aforementioned folks expanding this “base”?

[tjstarling]

Fk Bernie, Warren, and AOC forever.

Keep broadcasting that contempt. Watch the base become smaller and more elite.

But how are the aforementioned folks expanding this “base”?

Maybe they aren't*, but Sanders did better with the group swinging hardest against Biden. The more Democrats spend their political capital on performative pandering (both to their own party elites and their hackneyed ideas of swing voters) and the harder they simultaneously reject economic reform, the more obviously they signal that they're not interested in seeing to basic economic needs.

*In the long term, of course, sticking to their sorts of policy plans and actually delivering for the base instead of doing nothing and then expecting people to not eventually get fed up with Democrats is a better way to keep voters in the coalition.

And what evidence is there the voters care about this economic reform that you speak of? You’re sadly mistaken if you think issues or ideology matter at all here. This is a personality contest nothing more how else to explain the fact that the Hispanic candidate who I’m sure spent plenty of time reaching out to Latinos in New Mexico is running behind Joe Biden.

[tjstarling]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323863787825438720?s=20
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864021167198209?s=20

This really was the least ideal situation possible given this guy’s rhetoric and capacity to incite problems

[tjstarling]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

Its almost as if....people have been warning about Biden's Latino problem since June.

Here’s the thing is it a Biden problem or a party problem? I haven’t looked in detail but are down-ballot Democrats out running Biden win Hispanic areas?

[tjstarling]

Guys lets be serious, the difference between Biden and Sanders would be close to 0%, he wouldn't do better, he wouldn't do worse.

This has mostly always been about Trump. I don’t think Sanders would’ve peeled off a single working class vote or the Trump won, the question is whether he would’ve performed in a similar way in the suburbs.

[tjstarling]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think the Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Candidate X did well with this group in primary means candidate x does well with this group in general election is really lazy thinking. Clearly Biden’s performance in the primary with working class whites was and indicator he would do well in the general was on point. Oh, wait....

[tjstarling]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Who exactly?

[tjstarling]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Who exactly?

Is that a serious question?  Do you even follow politics?

Absolutely. Answer the question and I’ll offer a rebuttal if I disagree. Isn’t that how a forum discussion works?

[tjstarling]

Yeah it’s time to push left on fiscal issues and right on social issues.

Ew no. You really think that's what cost us in Fla and TX?

Considering you see 60 point swings in poor rural Tejano counties?

Yes lol.

I think it's pretty clear that left on economics is bad with Latinos.

While I don’t think ideology plays as big a role with voters as some posters here, I think what we’re really discounting is the advantage of incumbency among certain groups of voters.

[tjstarling]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state.  

Who exactly?

Is that a serious question?  Do you even follow politics?

Absolutely. Answer the question and I’ll offer a rebuttal if I disagree. Isn’t that how a forum discussion works?

Well you clearly have no idea how many people who had given up on politics were inspired by Bernie.  I know a lot of them actually.  Nah, I think I'll go to sleep, because you are obviously not discussing in good faith.  Bye now.

Just because you know a handful of them doesn’t mean that’s a representative sample of anything at all. You seem to know less about politics than you accused me of knowing. Clearly are Internet and social media bubbles are not representative of the voters, as these results clearly illustrate. Why didn’t these people show up for him in the primaries in mass numbers if he was sooooo inspiring? That’s the primary question you didn’t ask yourself. Frankly any discussion around Bernie is irrelevant at this point.