Venezuelan Dictatorship Referendum, 15 February

[ag]

The referendum will be on whether to do away with presidential term limits.  It will be funny to see if long term US congressional office holders like Dingel, Waxman, Mccain, Pelosi, Hoyer, Kennedy and others find it a terrible idea inasmuch as they run on and on and on.

There is a big difference between presidential term limits and the legislative ones. Myself, I believe the presidential term limits to be indispensible, while I would fight tooth-and-nail against the legislative term limits: no contradiction whatsoever.

[ag]

In 4 minutes (6 PM local time) the entrance to the polling stations will close (all those in lines at that moment will still be allowed to vote).

[ag]

This time there are some exit polls, though who knows what they are.

Here they are reporting the lead for "no"

http://alexismarrero.blogspot.com/

[ag]

Alí Rodríguez, Minister of Finances and member of the United Socialist Party leadership, has stated the "Yes" option has an "irreversible" lead, citing exit polls.

BTW, why do you have an old Georgian flag on (and not, say, the current version)?

[ag]

Just for comparison, here are the pre-voting polls. Quite a bit of divergence in opinion there as well:

http://eriksez.wordpress.com/2009/02/13/enmienda-2009-proyecciones-finales-de-encuestadoras-y-otros-15f/

[ag]

Both sides seem to be claiming exit poll victory, but, so far, it seems it is chavistas who start celebrating in the streets.

[ag]

If I am to believe this picture:

http://150209no.com/

For much of the day the No voters dominated the exit poll, but towards the end the Yes came up (given that the missing jungle areas are chavista, that particular result would seem to indicate Yes winning).

[ag]

W/ 40% of the Zulia state (not quite sure in which metric) reporting, the NO has 63.23% and the YES has 36.77%. Zulia, of course, is the hotbed of the opposition (though the NO is getting a slightly higher vote then the opposition governor at the last election). Still, I would guess the opposition would need more from Zulia to win.

[ag]

is there anywhere where i can get realtime results on this?

Not really: only reports of "interested parties". The electoral commission (CNE) is, so far, silent.

BTW, I've goofed up in my previous post: Zulia only gave 57% to no in the 2007 referendum - so, if it is really 63% this time, it's a good sign for NO.

[ag]

As before, no oficial news, but the pro-government crowds (on cars) have shown up in Caracas, celebrating victory.

[ag]

may i ask where you're getting these figures? link plz?

The 2007 results I am getting from the oficial web page of the CNE

http://www.cne.gov.ve/divulgacion_referendo_reforma/

There is nothing there (yet?) about today's result. Everything else is, as I have made clear, close to hearsay, taken from various blogs. The thing about 63% from Zulia comes from here:

http://alexismarrero.blogspot.com/

[ag]

For some reason, there seem to be no updates on many of the sites I am watching (eg, www.eluniversal.com). Have no clue what it means.

[ag]

Imagine the reaction of the pro-government crowd if NO prevails!

Unfortunately, does not look very likely at this point. On various forums, the NO voters seem to be pretty despondent - this is not a full-proof indicator, but an indicator. At the very least, it would make it easier to "pull" the results to the desired level.

[ag]

This Venezuelan pracice of not providing partial vote counts for hours and hours is very diconcerting. At this point we've had 2.5 hours after the closing of the polls and nothing official yet.

[ag]

Informally, it seems there is a pretty wide margin for "yes" (something like 54% agains 46%). 

Ain't looking any good.

http://www.caracaschronicles.com/

[ag]

I find it interesting that we are all so strongly against the removal of term limits when I was reading another forum topic about new constitutional amendments and it appeared that the most popular one in America would be the removal of term limits.

what irony.

In presidential systems outside the US presidents rarely loose re-election. If Chavez gets this, he is not abandoning his post via election - ever. At best, at some point there is a popular rising that removes him relatively bloodlessly (a catalist for it might be another electoral campaign). At worst, there will, eventually, be a major civil war. He might also die in office of the old age or of a bullet. There might be a coup. One thing that is not happening: he is not retiring at the end of ANY constitutional term.

BTW, I would be strongly against removing the presidential term limits in the US as well (though, once again, I hate legislative term limits).

[ag]

It seems some sort of official announcement is imminent.

[ag]

Will plunging oil prices do him in? Just a few months ago he was bragging that the global recession was not affecting Venezuela at all.

They may very well. Unfortunately, if he wins today, "doing him in" might mean his untimely departure from this world. Or else, if he is in danger he might really dispense w/ further democratic niceties. In either case, Venezuela will be hurt, and hurt badly.

If he looses, he, actually, has a much better chance of serving out his current term in peace and transferring the office to a hand-picked successor. If he wins, things won't be pretty for him - but they will be worse for Venezuela.

[ag]

Seems like the "yes" victory is official w/ 94% of the count. But I still can't get the formal result. They are speaking right now.

[ag]

8% margin?

[ag]

With 94.2% of the vote counted, theresult is:

Yes - 6,003,594
No - 5,040,082

http://www.caracaschronicles.com

[ag]

Well, this ought to occupy my Democratization class tomorrow. Such a terrible result. I can't wait to see this pig gone. Looks like I might have to wait awhile for that...

Or not - this might even hasten his end. But there is no outcome that I see, which will be good for Venezuela.

[ag]

Well, this ought to occupy my Democratization class tomorrow. Such a terrible result. I can't wait to see this pig gone. Looks like I might have to wait awhile for that...

PS I wouldn't call him a "pig". His intentions, are, actually, good, I believe - that's why he is rushing at high speed to Hell.

[ag]

Well, this ought to occupy my Democratization class tomorrow. Such a terrible result. I can't wait to see this pig gone. Looks like I might have to wait awhile for that...

PS I wouldn't call him a "pig". His intentions, are, actually, good, I believe - that's why he is rushing at high speed to Hell.

Uh...?

His intentions are good, but, like the saying says, ''The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions''.

That is what I understand of ag.

Exactly

[ag]

Well, this ought to occupy my Democratization class tomorrow. Such a terrible result. I can't wait to see this pig gone. Looks like I might have to wait awhile for that...

PS I wouldn't call him a "pig". His intentions, are, actually, good, I believe - that's why he is rushing at high speed to Hell.

Uh...?

His intentions are good, but, like the saying says, ''The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions''.

That is what I understand of ag.

Well, ok, I should have picked up on the old saying but to say that this guy has totally good intentions is really naive.

Depending on how you define good intentions He is clearly not very interested in personal luxury - might be a consideration, but it is minor. He hates his opponents - but he does not visibly enjoy doing nasty things to them. He is clearly motivated by a desire to transform an unequal society and help the poor - nothing bad in itself, except the path he has chosen does not lead where he thinks it does. He clearly thinks of himself as the only one capable of seeing it through - lack of humility and a fatal error, to be sure, but not everybody views it as a sin, and, clearly, he is among those who don't. He is willing to use nasty means to get to the worthy goals (though, truth be told, so far, he has abstained from the worst excess) - but, surely, he only does it when he views the goals as worthy.

Don't get me wrong: I do believe, he is the worst thing that happened to Venezuela in a long, long time. It's going to be Hell, and he is going to be responsible. But a pig he is not.