Independence for Kosovo, Yes or No?

[ag]

At this point, independent Kosovo is all but an inevitability: there is simply no realistic way of reincorporating it into Serbia, even nominally, without a bloodbath.  Actually, even on the extremely unlikely assumption that it were to happen, Serbia wouldn't be able to digest Kosovo and stay a democracy - in a combined state Albanians would be over 20% of the population and growing, would likely vote in bloc for some sort of irreconsilable independist party (that is, if they don't go back to fighting), which would necessitate grand coalitions of Serbian parties to govern the country for years to come (in a highly politically fragmented Serbia this would be tough to achieve).  Any, even most nominal, Serbian government presence in Kosovo would be highly resented. At most, one can talk of a nominal reincorporation, in which no Serbian government representative ever crosses the bridge in Mitrovica, except under an overwhelming NATO protection.  Ok, perhaps one could consider creating some office like "joint presidency of Serbia and Kosovo", if it can be guaranteed that its holder can't even fart in public without a written permission of Kosovo's real authorities, but this is not going to last (see the short history of "Serbia and Montenegro").

Serbia lost its chance to govern Kosovo during the 90s.  As I do not believe EU is willing (or able) to continue governing Kosovo forever, this doesn't leave many long-term options that do not involve a war.  It could be that Kosovo becomes a new Taiwan - not internationally recognized (except by Saint Lucia),  but de facto independent in every sense. However, this is, actually, a less stable arrangement (and more frought for Kosovo's minorities) than an internationally recognized independence.  "Mother countries" might dream of reincorporating Transnistria or Abkhazia or Karabakh - Kosovo is simply too big (I believe, its combined population is more than the sum total of all of the other post-Communist splinter statelets) and too close to Europe to be swallowed by Serbia.

Independence negotiations may be used to guarantee minority rights, to adjust the borders (the Slavic-majority parts of the country might be transferred to Serbia and/or Macedonia), to generally impose conditions on the Albanian majority.  Keeping it as is doesn't serve much purpose.

[ag]

No -as with Iraqi Kurdistan they are going to have to be satisfied with autonomy as opposed to outright independence. 

They won't be satisfied, that's the problem. And there is no way of forcing them to be satisfied (short of aiding Serbia in a military occupation - Serbia won't be able to do it on its own at this point). It is possible to not recognize their independence - but even maintaining unity there is not very enforceable (unlike China, Serbia can't really do much to punish/reward countries based on Kosovo recognition).  In fact, I am not even sure it can be postponed indefinitely - at some point a declaration of independence would happen,  and I don't think there are many powers that would be willing to fight it, with sanctions or military action.

No autonomy deal in which Kosovo is de facto dependent on anyone in Serbia in anything can stick at this point. The most that a peaceful negotiation can achieve (and even that would require inordinate inducements) is a provisional arrangement under which, for some specified period, a nominal Serbia/Kosovo state is set up.  The leadership of such a joint state would have to be absolutely impotent, without any powers (other than symbolic) whatsoever, and a date for independence referendum would have to be scheduled.  It is hard to see why anyone would want to impose such an arrangement, but, perhaps, as a transitional sweetener for Serbia it might be done.  If I had to get something out of negotiations, though, I'd concentrate on protection of minorities, not on empty symbolic gestures.

Let's face it. What prevents Kurdish independence is a (very viable) Turkish threat and, perhaps, for now the unfinished division of Iraqi land/oil. There is no equivalent to Turkey near Kosovo and there is no oil anywhere nearby.  Does EU want to become an eternal protector of Kosovo to maintain status quo?  Does anybody want to enforce (with real blood and money) a symbolic arrangement for the sole object of placating the (not very popular) Serbia?