Nassau v. Staten Island

[ag]

Surprisingly, nobody mentions the elephant in the room: the collapse of the long-standing Republican dominance of Nassau at the local level.

A dosen years ago, or a bit more, when I lived there, Nassau was the Republican stronghold in NY.  It was a classic local political machine, corrupt, spendthrift and in cahoots with the public sector unions (a unionised Nassau Community College professor at the time would get more than a professor in all but a handful private sector research universities in the country), regularly able to "deliver the vote". It was the Al D'Amato country. Of course, the end of it was a huge debacle, both governmental, financial and political, damning the Republican party in the eyes of the locals and destroying its vote mobilization capacity.

Of course, SI is (and was) also locally dominated by the Republicans. But, being part of NYC, it doesn't have much of self-government (with all due respect to the old guy Molinari, who was the borough president and local Republican czar back then, a borrough president is only responsible for an occasional ribbon cutting ceremony, so dedicating oneself to party-building is largely harmless). They do elect a couple members of the city council, but, as Republicans in NYC, these are usually there only for decoration, like the wallpaper. Since lack of power means there is no potential for a screw-up, the party remains untainted. In fact, SI Republicanness serves to highlight its distinction from the rest of the city - if you wish, it is a local identity thing.

As for the more working-class nature of SI, compared with the relatively white-collar LI, that is also a plausible explanatory variable. In NY, the white blue-collar types are, probably, among the most socially conservative people around. Wealthier, better educated, more middle-class - among the whites in NY these are all the things that will increase the probability of voting Dem, not Rep.

[ag]

The local GOP in Nassau County was absolutely horrendous, a wolf in sheep's clothing.  It was well deserving of its collapse.

I'm not sure it has that much to do with the trend toward the Democrats in national elections, though.  I think that national elections turn on different issues than local elections, and people vote differently in them.  Even I will vote Democratic in local elections.

A local party machine is an important thing, even in a national election. It might not affect most voters, but on the margin it is capable to do things. Get out the vote and vote registration drives, for one, are much easier done if the local party is strong.  A swing of a few percentage points is all we are talking about here.

[ag]

I agree that the local party can make some difference, but I don't think it can explain the shift that has taken place in Nassau.

But, probaly, enough to account for much of a few percentage points that distinguish Staten Island (where the party organization is intact) and Nassau.

[ag]

I agree that the local party can make some difference, but I don't think it can explain the shift that has taken place in Nassau.

But, probaly, enough to account for much of a few percentage points that distinguish Staten Island (where the party organization is intact) and Nassau.

I'm sure it makes a difference.  But there are major demographic differences between Staten Island and Nassau that I'm sure affect it too.

The demographics of Nassau and Staten Island as of 2000 closely mirror each other, actually: (round to tenths of percentages)

Staten Island: 77.6% white, 9.7% black, 12.1% hispanic
Nassau: 79.3% white, 10.1% black, 10.0% hispanic

I was  talking more about economic status.  Staten Island is largely blue collar, while Nassau leans much in the direction of being white collar.

No doubt of that, and no doubt it explains some of the difference, as I did mention in my very first post.