Italy

[ag]

Yes, it is slang for testicles, it is like fools, dickheads (?)...

Dickheads would be the closest methinks.

I suddenly have an amusing mental image of John Major describing voters leaving the Tories in '97 as "dickheads"

Any recent polls?

Well, wasn't the "putzhead' ("Neoyorquino" for "dickhead") what finished off Sen. D'Amato? Of course, he called this his opponent, not the  voters.

[ag]

So Puglia voted for Berlusconi after all.

This is w/ 28 out 3947 precincts reporting (less than 15 thousand out of some 2 or 3 million votes). So far, this is just noise.

[ag]

It's getting closer. The latest projections for the Senate, actually, give a majority of seats to Berlusconi, though still a plurality of votes to Prodi. It is 49.8% to 49.1% in popular vote, but 152 to 157 in seats. The house should still go left, though. The current count is

Senate, w/ 39,154 out of 59,816 precincts reporting:

Left 50.0%
Right 49.2%
Other 0.8%

House w/ 16,214 out of 60,828 precincts reporting

Left 53.3%
Right 46.1%
Other 0.5%

[ag]

499 precincts left. The difference is about 37.5 thousand votes in favor of the left.

EDIT: 407 precincts left, the left leads by 41.5 thousand votes, but over half of the remaining precincts are in Sicilly.

EDIT 392 precincts, the left now leads by 42.5 thousand votes, but 216 precincts remain in Sicilly. What are the Sicillians waiting for? Hm.

EDIT 174 precincts left. Sicilly has reported all but 7 precincts. The left lead is down to just over 27 thousand votes!

[ag]

115 precincts left to report. 25.5 tousand lead for the left!

[ag]

http://www.repubblica.it/speciale/2006/elezioni/camera/index.html

[ag]

Ok did I justs see something big? Wasn't the Senate in the left's control not too long ago? They just had it 151-149 for Berlusconi on the webcast.

This has happened a few hours ago. Actually, looks like the ballance will be held by senators from abroad and senators for life.

[ag]

62 precincts left to report, 34 of these in the Berlusconi-leaning Lazio II. The left lead is 25.5 thousand

EDIT 36 precincts to report. Correction: the left lead is 27.5 thousand (excitement, excitement). But almost all the remaining precincts are in Lazio II.

[ag]

EDIT 36 precincts to report. Correction: the left lead is 27.5 thousand (excitement, excitement). But almost all the remaining precincts are in Lazio II.

What are you calling for?

Too close to call. Recounts likely.

By the way, Valle d'Aosta results are not included here, since they have their own electoral system, not included in nationwide PR.  Their member will be from Autonomie Liberté Democratie. They are, as far as I understand, "non-aligned". Or are they?

[ag]

Is Prodi claiming victory? This webcast seems to be of L'Ulivo's rally.

Judging by the front page of Repubblica he does. But he'd need support of foreign and life senators in the upper house.

[ag]

The Val d'Aosta people used to be part of I Democratici so may be its more Prodi than Silvio

Would not matter in the lower house, though. The way the electoral system has been adjusted, if you have an advantage, you have it huge. The Senate, though, is another matter.

[ag]

The situation is truly amazing! I´ve been all day following the recount and by 16GMT (when Berlusconi was still 10 points down) something started looking bad...

A tip: the result could be decided by the votes in... Argentina! (I`m actually not sure whether these votes are added to the totals or they belong to a different constituency, they´ve changed the electoral law recently). They haven´t started counting yet, but the link to follow it is http://www.corriere.it/Speciali/Politica/2006/Politiche2006/SEAS/camera/estero/20060409000000_18_NAZIONE_260.shtml). Argentina has thousands and thousands of italian citizens (including myself, but I didn´t vote; my favourite LA ROSA NEL PUGNO wasn´t running here, altough now I regret  not voting against Berlusconi) and the campaign here was quite intense (ie, many Berlusconi ministers campaigned here).

Foreign voters vote in separate constituencies, there are several all around the world. I am not sure if they count for determining who gets the bonus for the winning party, though.

[ag]

For a while the numbers on the page have been stationary: w/ 35 precincts left (34 of these in Lazio 2), a left lead of just under 27.5 thousand. But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement? The left, clearly, claims victory.

[ag]

For a while the numbers on the page have been stationary: w/ 35 precincts left (34 of these in Lazio 2), a left lead of just under 27.5 thousand. But, perhaps, they have stopped updating in the excitement? The left, clearly, claims victory.

Yeah, it still has the same numbers up that were there about 15 minutes ago. This just has to take one more turn in Berlusconi's favor and I'll be satisfied. Just a few thousand more votes... 

Unlikely, at least within Italy. We are talking of just over 2% of the precincts in Lazio 2. Right leads left there by just under 118 thousand votes, so 2% is less than 3 thousand votes. Even if all of the votes there go right (extremely unlikely) 2% of about 1 mln. votes in Lazio 2 is only 20 thousand. Not going to make a difference. Unless there are recounts, this seems to be it.

[ag]

Foreign vote is leaning left. Overwhelmingly so in Europe, but also in North-Central America, and in the "rest of the world". In South America there is a three-way splity, with a local "south american" association narrowly leading, followed by Unione, followed by Forza d'Italia. This will actually allow the left to close some of the gap in the Senate.

[ag]

Just 34 precincts left, all in Lazio 2.  It is still over 27 thousand votes left lead: 18.990.408 to 18.963.290

[ag]

The "governability bonus" is going to screw Berlusconi (well, he himself thought up this electoral system, didn't he?). Had it not been for it, he'd be able to make Prodi's life impossible. This way, he'd have a much harder time doing it (that with a 1 or 2 seat plurality in the Senate, but w/ the left comfortably controlling the house). 

[ag]

Seems this is it. Including the foreign vote (?) the seat allocation will be 340 left to 277 right. The Senate will be 154 left to 155 right, which leaves the Senators for life decisive.  But, truth be told, Berlusconi did give it a much better run than I'd expect beforehand. He might stay around to lead the coalition for a while (until the new government manages to jail him, at least). 

[ag]

So to clear things up...

Berlusconi is likely to ask for a recount in the lower house while the upper house will narrowly stay with his coalition (unless the overseas vote comes in big for the left). Sound right?

Yes, he is likely to ask for a recount in the lower house. The overseas vote has come big to the left, that is why in the latest projections he only has a one seat lead there (155 to 154). But he does not have a majority, unless we figure out who are the Senators for life (former presidents? In that case he is screwed).

Correction: Actually, I was wrong. The foreign vote is not yet included, the addition is due to adding the Valle d'Aosta and Trentino Alto Adige, which are not included in the national count, since they elect senators separately. In the end, the left took 6 seats there, and the right only 2. Thus, the foreign senatros will be decisive, and, given the early returns from abroad, most of them will be left. Still, the senators-for-life will be decisive.

[ag]

On a different site it says that the Union has an additional 6 expatriate seats. How will that effect the results?

If this is about the Senate and they all went Union, the left would have 160 seats to 155 for the right w/ 7 senators for life still holding the balance. But I do not believe all 6 would go Union, though Union should get most of them.

[ag]

I´m a bit out-of-date with the recent legal changes. I´ve read the Senate has taken greater importance, but I assume it still can´t elect/censor a government, right?

CNN and BBC both seem to imply that if the two chambers are controlled by different coalitions, the government can't be formed. In that case a new election is necessary after a few months (there'd be a caretaker government in between). So, who are the senators for life?

[ag]

I think he´s from Argentina (http://www.infobae.com/notas/nota.php?Idx=248690&IdxSeccion=100551). It´s quite ridiculous that a guy who hasn´t lived in Italy since 1942 holds balance in the Senate...

Actually, he is not holding the ballance. The elected senators will be divided left 158 right 156 independent (argentinian) 1. In any case, he seems to have announced he'll seat w/ the left, making it 159 to 156 (w/ 7 non-elected life senators holding the ballance - though these are still, mostly, from the left).

Berlusconi, I think, has asked for a "grand coalition"; the left, naturally, doesn't want it. In any case, recount is on.