New York 2006

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Fred Dicker of the New York Post said on "NY Week in Review" that Weld would be lucky to get 25%. What a joke.

He may be polling like that now but once the election gets going it will be in the 40's, same with Golisano.

I wonder if a Weld V. Spitzer race could maybe revive the hibernating NY Conservative Party? 

It will - in fact, the Conservatives are quite active, they aren't hibernating. While they won't win the election, they might actually push Weld to the third spot.

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they might actually push Weld to the third spot.

Why would more people vote for a conservative nutcase than a moderate in New York?

Sure it could be possible that some Republican votes wouldn't see a difference between Weld or Spitzer(but they would obviously blind) but the NYCon would nominate some no-name hack that wouldn't garner any attention and only hurt the cause(See: Senate 2004)

This has happened in the past (Conservative coming second behind a Dem) - and once Conservatives even managed to elect a senator. There are real (small "c") conservatives in New York, who would not see much of a difference between the Dem and Weld. The problem for Weld, he'd be squeezed between Spitzer and the Conservative - nothing wrong about him, but most Dems would go for Spitzer and most Reps won't vote for Weld, given a righg Conservative candidate.

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You have to remember that this is New York 2006. It's changed alot, no way in hell could a Conservative candidate win a senate seat and not just because he'd be a conservative but because the candidate, as I said before, would be a no name hack.

The NYGOP may be going down the toilet but the NYConservative Party has been in the sewers for awhile now.

I agree with the first part - there is no way whatsoever a Conservative would win the election in New York in 2006 (even if he is not a no-name hack).  However, I wouldn't be surprised if enough Republicans aren't willing to vote for Weld to give the Conservatives a shot at the second place. Weld's appeal is to moderate Democrats and Republicans, and the Republican core in the state is not particularly moderate (at least, not moderate enough to vote for a pro-abortion, pro-gay-marriage Massachussets liberal).

Now, don't get me wrong - Weld was a good governor in Mass., and he'd likely be a good governor in New York.  If a month before the election Spitzer eats little children on TV (or collapses in another fashion), he'd win in a landslide over any Conservative. I am confident that  3/4 of the state's population would by far prefer Weld over any Conservative. The problem is that they will, mostly, vote Dem, so it is not unconceivable that the final outcome is something like Dem 55%, Con 25% and Rep 20%.

Remember, the key advantage of the second party over the third party in the FPTP system is negated when the electoral result is viewed as predetermined. As far a "small c" conservative in NY is concerned, his vote can't affect the outcome whether he votes Rep or Con, so he might as well vote his preferred option.  Add to this a slight wiff of scandal/incompetence on the college front (however unfair), and Cons do have a chance for the second spot.

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Could this happen in the NY gubernatorial election, where two strong liberal candidates split the liberal vote, and a conservative squeaks through?

A strong liberal Democrat, Spitzer                 33%
A strong liberal Republican, Weld                  33%
A strong Conservative Party candidate         34%

Just speculating.

Any comments?

Extremely unlikely. There is just no reason for a run-of-the-mill Dem voter to choose Weld over Spitzer. Weld has against him a) the Republican designation (Democrats have been waiting for 12 years to get the governorship back - why would they choose to loose it) and b) the simple fact that he is not any stronger candidate than Spitzer: Spitzer is better known, reasonably popular, experienced, established winner in state-wide races (he defeated a Republican incumbent 8 years ago and has been reelected), well-established as a front-runner, etc., while Weld is less known, only recently back in the state and with a plausible linkage to a management disaster (however unfair).  In addition, I don't think you would have much more than 25% of NYState voters who'd choose a Conservative over a liberal Republican like Weld.  Short of Spitzer eating babies alive on TV in prime-time the night before election, I can't see much that would make the Dems loose this election.