Mexico 2006

[ag]

PRI is the party of The Leader and The Flag. Historically, it was created to give the revolutionary generals a platform where they could interact and share spoils without shooting. Since the founders were, generally, sociallist, so was the party, at least early on.  Rather quickly, it converged to the following arrangement. The party would completely and loyally support the president in whatever he decided to do during a single 6-year term. At the end of the term, the president would nominate a successor (from within the party, and not a relative of himself),  which the party made sure would be overwhelmingly elected, and then unconditionally retire from politics.   In return, the party was guaranteed (honestly or otherwise) all but a handfull of congressional seats, all governorships and all but a few   municipal administrations.  Opposition (mainly, the right-wing PAN) was usually allowed to elect a half-dozen congressmen and a mayor of a village or two.  If they disagreed with such a paltry alotment, they were free not to take their seats.

Starting in the mid 1980's PRI had a sequence of 3 pro-market presidents. Once the new orientation of the presidency (and, hence, of the party) became clear, the left wing of it split, forming the PRD. The first 2 pro-market presidents (de la Madrid and Salinas) were not really democrats, but did allow slightly greater degree of political freedom, resulting in the opposition (PAN) capturing a few large municipalities and, eventually, some governorhips.  The left-wing of PRI (now the PRD), probably, won the 1988 presidential election, but a timely "computer glitch" spoiled their chances.

In 1994 an "accidental" (and, as it turned out, disloyal to the party) president Zedillo came to power. He wanted to ensure his place in history by introducing democracy to Mexico. PRI was in a bind: loyal to the presidency, PRI congressmen were forced to vote for their own defeat, by creating an independent electoral commission and electoral tribunals. In 1997 they lost majority in Congress, and in 2000 the presidency (they still have the largest congressional faction and most governorhips, though).

The current system is, roughly, like this. The left-wing PRD (the true PRI of old) is a socialist party. They address each other "comrades" the way and govern in the capital city and the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Baja California Sur and Zacatecas, and have a strong presence in Tlaxcala and Tabasco and parts of the Mexico State. Their organization in the rest of the country is near negligible. Their congressional faction is weak. In some states they may have inherited the PRI patronage network. Their color is yellow, not red.

The right-wing PAN is the traditional opposition. Early on (in the 1950s) it had an economic conservative and a religious conservative wings.  Later the religious conservatives were dominant, but  the current leadership has a number of outsiders (including president Fox himself), so the religious wing is somewhat in check. The party governs in a number of central and northern states and is the principal opposition in most of the remainder (usually, to PRI, to PRD in the capital). They control the presidency and have the second-largest faction in the Congress. They run under the blue-white colors.

The PRI is ... well, the patronage party. It has multiple factions and is, in general, a "big tent". Traditionally, they also address each other "comrades" (though, they use a different, milder word than the PRD). They are in league with the unions and the free-market wing is blamed for the defeat in 2000, so these days they are somewhat more to the left, but they won't insist on it too much.  Their colors are green-white-red, so if you vote against them, you vote against the national flag.

Additionally, there are a few small parties, which control some seats/ offices.  The Greens are a family business directed at getting campaign funds and sellig the votes to the highest bidder (somewhat in the mode, but with a lot fewer principles, then the old NY Liberal party) . The Labor Party (color - red) is a more radical version of the PRD (the non-PRI leftists). The Convergence party and a couple of newer start-ups complete the picture.

To make slight sense, here is a sample of party adverts for the fothcoming Mexico State election (one of the few states were all three parties are strong).  The election is next month, the adverts are seen all over the city subway (which gets out into the state).

PAN: "under the PAN goverment in the last 4 years 3 million people bought new houses" (subsidezed by the government). "under PAN x gazillion citizens got sociall security!"/

PRD: "The PRD-controlled government  of the Capital City has introduced old age pensions for y hundred thousand capitalinos". "The City assambley has passed the old-age and the young-age laws protecting your rights" "Mexico - a different government".

PRI (note: the current governor is from PRI): "Join the party and win! Your party-membership card is your lottery ticket!". In front of a big pyramid or a big montain, or a torso of a soccer player the national (and party) tricolor and a slogan: "Very Mexican. PRI".

I guess, that's enough.

[ag]

Mexico having, probably, one of the longest election campaigns in the world, already has the "pre-campaign" for the July 2006 in full swing. Thus, with the elections due in 11 months (and the current presidential term with almost 16 months to go!) there is actual news to report.

The PRI "pre-candidates" other than the party leader Madrazo, having previously united in the anti-Madrazo front (literally called "All united against Madrazo") have run their "pre-primary".  The winner is the outgoing Mexico State governor Arturo Montiel. He is now to run pretty much one on one in the full party primary against Madrazo. Granted, Madrazo has a fair chunk of the party machine on his side, but Montiel is as good an old dinosaur as they ever made - he is not to be written off. Today's Reforma poll (usually one of the best polling organizations in Mexico) puts Montiel at 44% to 41% for Madrazo among the PRI members and, and gives him an even healthier 46% to 37% lead among those who intend to vote. What is even more interesting, among the general electorate 43% would prefer Montiel as the PRI candidate (against 28% for Madrazo).  Montiel could be a tough cookie as a PRI candidate - he knows how to play the party machine, and owns much of it in Mexico State, which is the major battlefront of the campaign, since 15% of the country's population live there (Madrazo's home state of Tabasco, which he shares with PRD's Lopez Obrador, is a lot smaller). Of course, there are still wild cards out there, but, unless a wild card is actually needed, it is down to these two for PRI.

As for the rest - not much news. For PRD Lopez Obrador has all but gotten the nomination - there won't be any serious candidates to rival him. PAN will have a noisy contested primary with a half dozen of serious and semi-serious contestants. So far, I would still think Creel and Calderon being the front-runners. Lopez Obrador has resigned his mayoralty and those PAN contenders who had been in the Cabinet have resigned their posts (by law one has to resign before the start of the general election campaign - i.e., some time in January, - but these days most parties require the same for candidates in the primaries before they can be formally registered to run).

So far outside the race, the "moral leader" of the PRD Cuauhtemoc Cardenas continues sulking and thinking about running as independent. Somewhat suggestively, a Federal Senator from Mexico City viewed as close to him has indicated that he might either run for the City Mayoralty as an independent, or even by contesting the PAN primary. This is a bit akin to Sen. Schummer making noises about contesting the Republican primary for NYC Mayor.  That election is on the same day as the presidential, and the race is almost as interesting at this point - perhaps, I should write about it some other time.

On a wilder note, the Zapatista rebels have come out of the jungle to make vehement pronouncements against PRD in general and Lopez Obrador in particular.  They've called him "trator" and worse. While they are not much of a force outside those parts of Chiapas which they control (and where they could make the election impossible), the surprise is that it is the leftmost candidate in the race they find particularly unacceptable (I guess, they view him as the most direct competition).

[ag]

I see Calderon as the PRD candidate (think he will get 21 per cent of the vote in the general), Obrador as the PAN candidate (32 per cent in the general) and Montiel as the PRI candidate (43 per cent).

A simple but relatively accurate way to look at Mexico geopolitically is to divide the county into thirds.  The northern third is the PAN stronghold, the middle third largely PRI, with the south the PRD stronghold.

BTW, will Quintanna Roo every get to become a state again?

Well, it is Calderon for PAN and Obrador for PRD (unless, of course, the parties decide to rename themseleves).

Your geographic analysis is out of date. The South is not a PRD stronghold, the center is where PRI is the weakest, not the strongest, and PAN has been largely defeated by PRI in the North (though not in the center).

PRD is not that strong either in Oaxaca or in Puebla (PRI is), or in Morelos (governed by PAN), nor pretty much anywhere in Yucatan (all states there are governed either by PRI or by PAN). The Chiapas politics is somewhat special, but it still isn't much of a PRD stronghold (the current governor won as a joint nominee of every party other than PRI). Even Tabasco (where Lopez Obrador is from), I believe, has never elected a PRD governor (Lopez Obrador himself lost).  Thus, the only states with strong PRD that have a claim to be in the "south" are Guerrero  (where they've just one the governorship for the first time) and Tlaxcala (where they have just lost the governorship to PAN because of an intra-party conflict). The main strength of the PRD is in the capital (Center) and in the state of Michoacan in the (Center-West). It is also strong in Zacatecas (Center-North) and Baja California Sur (North). 

Similarly with PAN - the party governs in such central states as Guanajuato (Fox was the first PAN governor there), Jalisco (capital - Guadalajara), San Luis Potosi and Queretaro. It also has governors in Morelos and Tlaxcala in the South and is the main opposition to PRD in and around the capital city.  However, all the states bordering on the US except for the PAN-governed Baja California Norte are in PRI hands these days (PAN used to be strong to dominant in Chihuahua and Nuevo Leon, but PRI is newly ascendant there; other states, like Tamaulipas and Sonora, where never much in play as PRS strongholds)

These days it would make sense to say that PAN , PRI and PRD fight each other for the Center of the country, PAN and PRI contest  the North (with PRI ahead at present), while PRI is dominant in most of the South and the Yucatan peninsula (with a PAN-PRD alliance trying to compete with it there). This is an oversimplification, though.

What makes you think QR is not a state? It is as much a state as any other (though it is the newest state in the Union). If you wonder why there is no state gov't in Cancun, it is because the capital is in Chetumal on the Belizean border, so the governor, the state legislature, etc. are there. Next time you are in Cancun watch the local TV broadcast - when they start and finish, in addition to the National Anthem they play the state one.

And the most recent news on the presidential race. The Supreme Court has ruled that the election law which prohibits independent (non-partisan) candidacies for presidency cannot be challenged by a private citizen who wants to run as independent. While it did not rule on the substance, only a government branch or agency would have a standing.  This pretty much finishes off the independent campaign of the former Foreign Secretary Castaneda (it was he who went to court).  Castaneda's only chance now is to get a minor party nomination (he has been in talks with the Convergencia party), but even that does not look very promising. It's a pity - he's been the best of the branch, though his chances were always slim to non-existent.

[ag]

My question about Quintana Ro was historical (thanks for the answer).  It was a state in the 1830, then reduced to the same status as Baja Sur (I believe by Santa Ana) following a revolt there.

QR was not a state in 1830s - it was a part of the Yucatan State (as was the present-day State of Campeche). There wasn't much of a population there back in the time. During the war with the US in the 1840s Yucatan tried to secede from Mexico (they wanted to continue trading with the US). In the process they armed the mayans, who revolted, capturing pretty much the entire Yucatan (except for the cities of Merida and Campeche). Ladino (spanish-speaking) Yucatecans asked everyone possible to annex them: the US, the Spaniards and the Brits - but none would. Then they pleaded to rejoin Mexico - which saved them from annihilation, but only got them to recapture what are now the States of Yucatan and Campeche.  Eventually, Campeche was made a separate state.

What is now QR remained effectively independent through the early 1900s (slowly decaying due to extremely unproductive land - it is for a reason, that other than Coba there are almost no major pre-hispanic ruins in the interior QR; Tulum, of course is also there - but it was a fishing town, and Mexicans controlled the sea and the islands, including Cozumel, so that the mayans couldn't fish, or even come out to the shore).

In the early 1900s (between 1905 and 1912) the Mexican government pushed through the rail and telegraph lines and re-established control. At the same time, they formally detatched QR from Yucatan (though Yucatan state government had only been in control of the islands there) and made it, first into a Territory, and later (in the 1950s, I think?) into a State. It remained the most "out of the way" place in Mexico, until in the early 1970s, when they started developing Cancun as a resort (until then, the only town of any size had been the capital, Chetumal).  QR was the last state in Mexico to get a university - might have been as late as in the 1990s!

By the way, BCS has been a state for quite some time as well!

 

[ag]

Does it really matter who wins in Mexico?  It seems that Mexican economic policy is basically the same no matter which party is in power:   Export workers to the US (mostly illegally)-get said workers to wire money back home to float  corrupt government.

Hm. Mexico is one of the giants of world trade, one of the main trading partners of the US. Mexican-based multinationals have started buying up companies all over the world (have you heard of Cemex?). The fourth-richest person in the world, according to Forbes, is a Mexico City-based  Mexican (next time you buy anything in CompUSA, keep in mind that he is the owner - a minor one of his many businesses).  Mexico is a major consuming nation: the largest per capita consumption of Coca Cola in the world, the largest number of Wal Mart stores outside the US. Mexico is an enormous manufacturing power (huge car factories, for one) and one of the most important sources of oil consumed in the US (US buys relatively little oil in the Middle East, most of its imports are Mexico and Venezuela). Mexico is a major tourist destination, but also a major source of tourists for the US, and these tourists frequently spend a lot of money (all along the border there are huge shopping malls selling brand name goodies to rich Mexicans). The economies of US and Mexico are highly integrated and interdependent, each country being directly and indirectly responsible for millions of jobs in the other one.

Of course, there is also labor mobility. But keep in mind, that though there are millions of Mexicans (legally and illegally) in the US, there are also hundreds of thousands of Americans (legally and illegally) working in Mexico (that is not counting hundreds of thousands of US retirees resident there). In fact, you might find it unexpected, but Mexicans don't create any major (illegal or legal) migration to Canada or Europe (even though a Mexican Citizen only needs a passport to travel to those places - of the rich countries only US requires visas for Mexican Citizens).

Mexico is indeed much poorer than the US - but it is not even a poor country by international standards. The development and wealth gap between US and Mexico is comparable to that between Mexico and Guatemala (and there are countries poorer than Guatemala). And it is a huge country (three times the population of Canada, the largest Spanish-speaking country in the world) - within Mexico City there is easily a first-world city the size of Toronto (i.e., if you look at middle-class neighborhoods of the city, they are no smaller in population - nor are they poorer - than the great Canadian metropolis).

As for economic policy differences between candidates they do exist and are non-negligible (probably larger than the nebulous economic difference between the economic policies pursued by US Democrats and Republicans when in power).  If you wish I could talk about it, but that would be a long post.

Of course, no Mexican government is going to do anything about northward migration - nor can anyone realistically do anything about it other than nuking northern Mexico and Southern US. When you have a long frontier with oversupply of cheap labor on one side and shortage of cheap labor on the other side the free markets spring into action, and it is hard to fight markets. To stop the flow you'd have to create Soviet-style frontier and police mechanisms (e.g., requiring US citizens visas to travel to San Diego and Mexican citizens visas to travel to Tijuana - like Soviet citizens needed visas to travel within 200 km of the frontier on their own side of it).  Even then you'd, probably, have to stop unauthorized phone communications between the countries and censor Mexican media  to avoid giving any indication that you can earn more money in the US. Since you can't do this in democracies, one has to live with it.  It is, really, the matter of markets and democracy - you can't eliminate them in one matter only, without endangering them nationwide.

[ag]

ag,


yeah, maybe, but the third largest source of income in Mexico is US dollars flowing from Mexican immigrants back to their families in Mexico.  Name another nation in the G-8 that list its third largest source of revenue as welfare from its expats.

Well, this just shows you that the economy is fairly diversified . You know, playing with such statistics newspaper-style is fun but pretty meaningless (if I have 90 sources of income that are equally important, but one of them is slightly more important, 2 percent can make it the top source of income) - the relevant statistics is the proportion of GDP (it is not small, but neither it is extremely large).

Mexico is not part of G-8 (which is an arbitrary grouping of 7 rich countries plus Russia).  True, Mexico has a 9th largest economy in the world in dollar terms (though essentially tied with a few other countries - these things oscillate wildly because of the exchange rates).  Since Mexico is also one of 15 largest countries in the world by population, this only suggests that it is slightly above average in per capita income (which it is).

And name me another major middle-income country that is located right accross a long and naturally unprotected frontier from the largest and richest major economy in the world? That's it: an arbitrary line on one side of which the price of unskilled labor is 10 times that on the other side (it is a lot less for skilled labor - skilled people migrate both ways). Think of it this way: if Mexico were sloping twards the border and were 10 meters higher above the sea level than the US along the frontier and if all along this frontier there was water flowing from Mexico to US all along the line, would you expect any government action to stop the flood? Would it make much difference if the height difference were only 2 meters? Enough said.

[ag]

I would tend to agree with AG.  But GDP/capita by PPP standards is about $41,000 for USA, $10,000 for Mexico, and $4200 for Guatemala.  The USA-Mexico gap is far greater than the Mexico-Guatemala Gap.  At $6500 for Mainland China, Mexico is not that much richer than Mainland China in terms of GDP/capita in PPP terms.  While Mexico City is advanced in some ways, Shanghai is more advanced than Mexico city.  Furthermore, crime is a major problem in urban Mexico, especially Mexico City.  The wealthy shop in fancy malls in Mexico City but are too scared to get out of their cars en route to the malls from their houses.  All rich people need an army of bodyguards.
While food is cheap in Mexico, many products that the middle class needs, like a color TV, DVD players and so on are often more expensive than USA.   

Aside from my slightly sceptical attitude to conversion coefficients used for converting dollars into PPP terms (there is a good reason these things fluctuate quite a bit from year to year), you'd have to also assume that one dollar for a poor individual is the same value as one dollar for the rich one (taking ratios of these things is pretty meaningless). Anyway, let me take them at face value for the moment.

Guatemala is essentially a feudal country. It is owned by a few wealthy white families lock, stock and barrel. The GDP is extremely concentrated - I have a Guatemalan colleague about whom they joke that if his family ever left the country they'd have to recalculate the GDP (his grandpa's picture is on the money)!

Guatemala has fairly recently gone through a major civil war which lasted for decades.  The mayan population (majority there) was consistently viewed as the enemy by the government throughout the war and held at subsistence level. Even within the mayan community there is almost feudal level of inequality between the chiefs and the poor.

The war has largely destroyed the country's infrastructure (or it wasn't maintained). In many places paved roads end where Mexico ends (within Guatemala only the major tourist routs are reasonably paved).  During the war a huge chunk of GDP was spent on the army. Though the war is over, Guatemala still has a stronger army than Mexico does (the story goes that when some 20 years ago there was a rumour of hostilities, Mexican generals could promise that the capital wouldn't fall, but couldn't promise that Guatemalans wouldn't take a chunk of Mexico several times the size of Guatemala itself, including the city of Puebla just 2 hours away from the capital! Mexico's population is 8 times that of Guate's). This costs a tonne of money!

An average Guatemalan is a lot worse off than his northern neighbour - the difference is quite comparable with that between US in Mexico (of course, all comparisons are impresise - there is simply no presise way of making them).  Of course, there are a lot of people in Guate who live well (as there are a lot in Mexico), but it ist the poor that migrate illegally (interstingly, Mexico is as intolerant of the Central American migrants as the US is of Mexican).

It is hard for me to compare things with China - that's not my area of expertise. That country has huge geographic disparities (large areas are horridly poor), but I would easily trust that Shanghai looks, and in some aspects functions, in a manner much more modern than that of Mexico City (or New York, for that matter) - the local prosperity is so recent, things have to be modern.

Mexico is in general a very disorganized country - it has a propensity to look like a dump even in fairly wealthy areas (the prosperity is frequently hidden in sidestreets).  That's cultural. I know many wealthy places that look like slums until you penetrate them deeper. It is part of the "national character", I guess.  It is also consequence of very fast population growth during the 20th century - things got developed faster than they could call up city planners, architects, or even simply paint the walls.

But it is not true that Mexico City, for one, is so dangerous you can't get out of your car. The city was very safe before the 1995 crisis - at that point the crime rates have skyrocketed, making many long-term residents scared. But it is all relative: the murder rate in the City is where it was in NYC in the early 1990s - bad, but not so bad you can't walk the street. The locals are more scared than those of us who'd been to NY in 1993 are.  The very rich (those who'd be very rich even in the US) do tend to hide in gated communities these days, but the millions of middle-class residents do nothing of the kind. There are many neighborhoods where sreet and cafe life is in full swing till well past midnight daily (I myself have been out that late many times and I am visibly foreign from 2 miles away). Kidnappings have become a problem and one has to be careful with cabs - but it is not like one is scared daily to get out. And there are many provincial cities (away from the borders and their drug wars) that are outright safe.  

[ag]

ag, i'm going to guess you are...Canadian?

No. Try another one. Though even myself I am no longer sure who I am.

[ag]

ag, i'm going to guess you are...Canadian?

No. Try another one. Though even myself I am no longer sure who I am.

Usted es mexicano.

Well, I guess that is not too wrong - I did get naturalized recently as a Mexican. A pretty nice passport to have (and fairly easy to get)!

[ag]

An update on Mexican election.

PAN is running its primaries. In the first round, which included such important strongholds as Queretaro, San Luis Potosi and Nuevo Leon, as well as the vote hoard of Mexico State, unexpectedly, Santiago Creel, the designated heir of Fox, lost to the "disobedient son" Felipe Calderon (roughly, 35% to 46%, with 18% going to the third candidate Alberto Cardenas). The turnout was extremely light, though (under 30% of membership). The remaining two rounds will take place October 4? and 23.  If no candidate obtains 50% overall, there will be a runoff, I think.

Creel losing the first round, which he was supposed to win, probably, ensures he will not be the nominee. He is a lousy public politician (his attempts to pretend being "a man of the people" are decidedly Dukakis-in-the-tank-like) and he is not very popular with the party rank-and-file. He is a long-time friend of Fox (they were both part of the group of  newcomers into PAN who "took over" the party for Fox's nomination), who has been pushing him despite his previous loss in the mayoral election in Mexico City and a disappointing performance as the "Gobernacion" Secretary (a cross between the Interior and the State in the US - the first-ranked position in the Cabinet).  Because of that he was perceived as front-runner.  Now, once his front-runner status is gone, rats will be running off the ship en masse.  It is Calderon's race to lose now.

The change, probably, makes PAN chances better. The former party chairman and Energy Secretary Calderon had broken with Fox because of insisting on running against Creel. While he is, so far, not "bigger" than PAN, he is quite popular with the rank-and-file and does have more of "common touch" than Creel (though, having "less common touch" is, probably, outright impossible).  While part of the "old PAN", he is a Catholic moderate by the party standards, and might have a chance of broadening the appeal.  His public resignation as Energy Secretary (he was, essentially, fired for the "premature" campaign start) does enough to distance him from Fox's failures, but, since it was done for wholy intraparty reasons, it does not alienate him from the normal PAN electorate.  In fact, the party machine, to the extent it exists, is more likely to go out for him than for Creel - and Fox will support him no matter what.

So, the race now seems to be Lopez Obrador (PRD) - Calderon (PAN) - Madrazo or Montiel (PRI).  Actually, I'd probably buck the conventional wisdom and say that Montiel is likelier than Madrazo. Between those two there is not much to choose: both would have made a brilliant carreer as mafia dons (Montiel, in fact, is really "central casting" as one) .  There is also still some intrigue involved in whether Lazaro Cardenas (the PRD moral leader) decides to through his support for a minor party candidate and whether Castaneda (the former Foreign Secretary) manages to get to the balot on a minor party ticket.

The latest polls have shown Obrador about 10 points ahead of either Creel or Calderon, with Creel a couple of points ahead of Madrazo. But that was before the Calderon victory, which might change some dynamics. 10 months to go!

[ag]

The PRI's time out of office has cleaned up the party a bit, they are not as stupid as they were before. They will win the presidency and the congress, but actually be a little more democratic this time. This trend will continue for a long while.

Actually, not. The leaders of PRI before right before the loss were the most "pro-democracy" leaders the party ever had. Of course, they are internally discredited, and the current leaders and front-runners for nomination are what is known in Mexico as "dinosaurs" - unreconstructed old-timers.  Both Madrazo and Montiel (the front-runners for nomination) are rather thuggish, and their main rival within the party (Elba Gordillo, the former - that is, until yesterday, when she resigned - Secretary General of the party) is the head of the powerful teachers union - one of the old pillars of PRI rule.  In any case, without the presidency PRI lacks obvious personal leadership and, as a "big tent" party it has no clear course. It is hard to talk about any "trend" there - it is a strange entity.

An interesting thing to follow is Elba Gordillo's behavior. She was elected party's Sec.Gen. in tandem with Madrazo's election to the position of the party leader, but since then they've sharply split.  As the had of the party faction in the Lower House she was seen as cozying to much to Fox gov't, causing a revolt, split, and her replacement in the Congress leadership. Since then she was moving away from the party, and now resigned her last leadership position (though still no the party membership). She explicitly refused to discard possibility of running in the party primary for president (she has now chance, but could confuse the hell out of the process).  At the same time, some in PAN have been wooing her to cross the isle.

Anyway, over the last month or two things have been changin in the race. Once muddled, the PAN race now has an obvious front-runner (Calderon) - and it is not the hopelessly uncharismatic Creel. In contrast, the internal situation in PRI is now hopelessly confused.  In polls PRI candidates are, mostly, tied with PAN candidates (or even a notch behind) for the second spot behind PRD's Lopez Obrador (who has now formally obtained his nomination unchallenged). In a first-past-the-post race the third guy is bound to have support eroded (if this becomes Obrador/anti-Obrador race, every anti-Obrador voter is going to plumpt for whoever is best posed to defeat Obrador), so this is not a pretty position to be in.

To sum up, PAN seems to be picking up its game, while PRI is not. Any forecast of PRI's return to power in 2006 is highly premature at this point.

PS. I actually like Creel. But the guy is hopeless as a politician (Angela Merkel would have made a flaming toast of him), and he has to recognize that.

[ag]

Over the weekend elections in the State of Coauhila (the Mexican part of the good old State of Coauhila and Tejas).  This is a PRI stronghold, and the party didn't disappoint.

In the Governor race it took 55% of the vote for 33% for PAN and 3% each for PRD and a local party (PUDC) (all other parties got less than 1%).

In the mayoral races (equivalent, more or less, to county executives) it took 31 out of 38 municipalities (counties) compared with 4 for PAN, 2 for PRD and 1 for PDUC.  Of the major cities, PRI took the state capital (Saltillo) with 54% of the vote (36% for PAN), Monclova (52% to 39% for PAN) and Piedras Negras (60% to 30% for PAN). PAN major success was in the state's larges city (Torreon), where it took 51% of the vote (to PRI's 43%) and in a midsize town of Ramos Arizpe (where it took 58% of the vote for PRI's 38%). PDUC did take the border town of Acuña (43% for PRI's 40% and PAN's 9%). PRD won the town of San Pedro (47% for PRI's 45% with PAN distant at 3%) The other 3 opposition-controlled municipalities (1 for PRD and 2 for PAN) are tiny (under 2 thousand votes total in each). PAN managed to win one of them by 3 votes and PRD won its victory by 4 votes - I guess, there will be recounts.

Of the 20 direct district seats for the State Legislature (there are also proportional seats) PRI one 16 and PAN 4.   

[ag]

Today is the 2nd round of the PAN primary.  With 96.71% of the polling places reporting some preliminary results.

The voting was in the Southeast of the country and in the Yucatan peninsular (a total of 8 states: Chiapas, Oaxaca, Puebla, Veracruz, Campeche, Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco). Of these, if I am not mistaken, PAN rules alone only in Yucatan. Overall turnout is low, as in the first round - only about 108,000 votes so far, overwhelmingly in Yucatan, Veracruz and Puebla (in the relatively small state of Yucatan the 23000 voters, actually, is not bad, but in the gigantic Veracruz and Puebla even similar numbers are peanuts).

So far, the results are 50.6% for Calderon, 36.23% for Creel and 13.16% for Cardenas.  Interestingly, Creel did not collapse, in fact his share grew, though only slightly and the gap between him and Calderon is about the same as before.  Calderon seems to have cracked 50% and the only loser, compared with round 1, is Cardenas.

Creel managed to win in Tabasco with almost 60% of the vote (though on less than 3500 votes cast - Tabasco is the home state of both the PRD candidate Lopez Obrador and the likely PRI candidate Madrazo - PAN has nothing to fish for here).  He also has a slight lead in Oaxaca (a PRI stronghold) - 45.8% to 41.1% for Calderon.

In the other 6 states Calderon leads. He got a whooping 71% of the vote in Yucatan - this is not surprising, since he is the favorite of the new PAN governor of the state (Yucatan was a PRI stronghold until very recently, and the PAN's recent victory has made the party a very dynamic force, but also the governor a very dominant figure within it). He got just over 50% in Veracruz and Quintana Roo.

Cardenas's best performance is 24% in Chiapas (against 43% for Calderon and 32% for Creel). 

To sum up, Calderon retained the very comfortable lead but failed to make it irreversible. He needs to get over 50% total in 3 rounds, and since he was short of that in round 1 and barely above that in round 2, unless he does very well in round 3 (center, including Mexico City), we might get the Calderon-Creel run off. Still, momentum is with Calderon and, honestly, I don't see the point, as far as Creel is concerned.

On other recent events: the minor leftish parties (Convergencia and Labor) have hard talks with PRD about the coalition in the congressional elections next year. There are just few weeks left to register formal coalitions, so it has to be done fast. PRD is insisting on joint presidential candidate, but the minor parties are not very eager (they'd rather coax the former PRD leader Cuauhtemoc Cardenas to run).  Also, they both want a steep price in terms of congressional seats, and PRD seems to be giving a hard bargain. Might be interesting, or might be not. 

[ag]

More on Mexican election.

Roberto Madrazo has confirmed his reputation of Jack the Ripper of Mexican politics. A few days of staggered revelations about the minor matter of Arturo Montiel's exquisite real estate empire (a bunch of houses from Paris to Valle del Bravo, everyone of which would be worth more than his entire lifetime income as a modest public servant Montiel), and the erstwhile PRI front-runner first roars, then growls, then murmurs pleadingly and, finally, withdraws. It's too late for "All united against Madrazo" to get a new candidate into the primary, so we are in for an exciting race between Madrazo and some Evaristo No-Name for PRI presidential nomination.  That's a classic: The Highway Robber defeats the Godfather!

The problem for PRI is that Madrazo indeed has all the appeal and charisma of Jack the Ripper for pretty much anyone who is not a PRI member (and for a surprizingly large chunk of PRI membership as well). His route to PRI leadership and nomination has been literally over political corpses of a lot of popular PRI firgures. And while Beatriz Paredes did semi-voluntarily take the poison pill of PRI candidacy for Mexico City Mayor, the rest kicked and screamed very loudly and in public view.   Elba Gordillo (with her massively powerful Teacher's Union) has all but been pushed outright into the warm embrace of PAN.  Now, given what happened to Montiel I somehow get the feel that the well-oiled PRI machine in Mexico State will turn out to be somewhat more disfunctional and inept than expected in this particular election: even though Montiel smiled and embraced his tormentor in public, it is a public rape, not a love fest.  And Montiel is not the type that forgives or forgets.

In any case, it is all but certain now: the race will be Lopez Obrador (PRD) - Madrazo (PRI) - Calderon (PAN). Of the three "pre-candidates" only Calderon still has any chance of loosing the nomination, but he'd have to be very inept to  do so.  And the election is only going to be in July 2006! Talk about a long campaign season!

An interesting note, that I'd made in the past: two of the three candidates (Lopez Obrador and Madrazo) come from the same smallish state of Tabasco.  And both are, essentially, old-time PRI bone-crushers, though Lopez Obrador has taken the skill to PRD.  Not that Calderon is a candidate for sainthood, but, in comparison, he starts looking quite attractive.

[ag]

Today was the third - and looks like the last - round of PAN primaries (in the cetner, West and North-West of the country). With 96.7% of stations counted, Calderon got 58.03% of the vote (to 24.07% for Creel and 17.90% for Cardenas). He tot over 72% in (his native?) Michoacan and Aguascalientes, 70% in Coahuila, 68% in Morelos (including the city of Cuernavaca), over 65% in Sinaloa, 60 to 65% in Baja California, Chihuahua and Mexico City (and of the few ballots cast abroad). He got around 55% in Guerrero and Sonora, and came first with less than half of the vote in Nayarit (49.96%),  Colima (46.6%) and the tiny (populationwise) Baja California Sur (38.91% - in a three-way split). The only state he lost (40.57%) was Jalisco (including the city of Guadalajara), but even that he lost not to Creel (who got just 7.08%), but to the also-run Cardenas (52.35%). The last result is no surprise - Cardenas is the former governor of Jalisco, so the state went for its native son.  While I haven't done the math, looks like it should give Calderon 50%, and avoid the run-off.

The overall turnout was, like in each of the previous rounds, small, at just over 100 thousand, almost a quarter of that in Jalisco, and the rest thinly split. Turnout in the capital was abysmal - so far, less than 8.5 thousand votes in a municipality of 8.5 million people! Slightly surprising - today action seemed fairly lively at the one polling station I passed by (it was in a tent, on a busyish sidewalk, so there wasn't a way to miss it). There wasn't a line, but there were voters visible. But then it was in an upper-middle-class section of town, and the crowd (if it could be termed that) was lilly-white - not a good sign for the general election in an over 85% non-white country.

In other news, the PRD's erstwhile standard-bearer Cuahutemoc Cardenas seems to have finally reconciled to the fact that Lopez Obrador is the party's candidate. At least, he seems to have told it to his son, "Lazarito" Cardenas, the gov'nor of Michoacan. "Engineer", as the old guy likes to be called, still seems to be unable to force himself to make a public pronouncement, so we are to trust Lazarito that his father "supports" the candidate and even said that much in some closed party meeting.  A ringing endorsement, isn't it? Just to make clear what this means, Engineer did endorse someone this week in public - a candidate in the Party's primary for the Mayor of Mexico City (needless to say, the lucky guy was not the presumptive endorsee of Lopez Obrador).   

[ag]

The (major party) candidates are all chosen and (almost) official and now, 8.5 months before the election, we have a race! Today’s Reforma poll (normally these are considered among the best – if not the best – locally; nationwide sample of 1515 voters with 2.5% MOE taken Nov. 11-14) has a dead heat:

Lopez Obrador (PRD): 29%
Calderon (PAN) – 28%
Madrazo (PRI) – 21%
de la Garza (Green) – 7%
Mercado (a minor new party) – 1%
Castañeda (independent and unlikely to be allowed on the ballot) – 1%

The regional breakdowns are quite interesting as well. They divided the country into 4 regions:

North (Baja California Norte and Sur, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Nuevo Leon,  San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas): Calderon 33%, Madrazo 23%, Lopez Obrador 22%, de la Garza 4%

Northwest (Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan and Nayarit): Calderon 37%, Madrazo 20%, Lopez Obrador 19%, de la Garza 7%

Center (Mexico City, Mexico State, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Queretaro and Tlaxcala): Lopez Obrador 41%, Calderon 22%, Madrazo 15%, de la Garza 10%!

South (Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatan): Madrazo 29%, Lopez Obrador 28 %, Calderon 28 %, de la Garza 5%

Personal approvals (Mexicans are very polite and loath to personally disapprove, I guess!):

Lopez Obrador : positives 47, negatives 13, neutrals 27 and don’t knows 13
Calderon: positives 45, negatives 11, neutrals 24 and don’t knows 20
Madrazo: positives 29, negatives 29, neutrals 29, don’t knows 13
de la Garza: positives 26, negatives 17, neutrals 28 and don’t knows 29

Do you plan to vote for the “best” candidate, or for the “least bad” (could be interpreted as a "strength of commitment" question):
“Best” 45%, “least bad” 38%, don’t know 17%

Of those who answered “best” 33% plan to vote for Calderon, 31% for Lopez Obrador, 24% for Madrazo and 4% for de la Garza; of those who answered “least bad” 36% go for Lopez Obrador, 28% for Calderon, 15% for Madrazo and 12 % for de la Garza

If they were history characters, whom would they be (choices are hero, villain, reformer):
Lopez Obrador: hero 32%, villain 16%, reformer 29%
Calderon: hero 19%, villain 9%, reformer 24%
Madrazo: hero 13%, villain 48%, reformer 17%

Voting intentions for Congress (elections are the same day as the presidency, next July):
PAN 27%
PRI 23%
PRD 23%
Greens 7%
Everybody else 1% or less
Won’t vote: 2% (Mexicans are polite people and hate to be rude!)
Don’t know 6%
Didn’t answer 8%

To sum up: Calderon and PAN are up (relatively clean primary, underdog victory and disassociation from the unpopular administration, no bad news and increasingly clean image – at least, in comparison); Lopez Obrador and PRD are stagnating (no primary, controversial, if inspiring, candidate, minor corruption scandals, sulking Engineer: see Michoacan and the Northwest!; not much success expanding in the North); Madrazo and PRI are doing badly (villainous candidate, farcical primary, major scandals, railroaded, raped and very unhappy state leaders, especially in the North and Center; bitter break-up with the teachers union: complete, with hair-pulling and dishes flying in public); freakish Greens (family vote-selling business for hire seems to be doing great with a young face on campaign posters).  The race is on!

[ag]

Latest poll results from Mexico's presidential race:

Reforma, Jan. 14-15 2006, a sample of 1515 adults from all 31 states and the Federal District, of whom 1337 responded that they had a valid voter ID. The margin of error 2.7% (95% confidence interval). A total of 104 interviewers and 40 supervisors. Judging by the phone number they provide, this is, really, a "university poll" (in fact,  my university poll - I know them!), but it is considered quite reliable. Come to think about this, I was aware of this piece of information even before - but it always nice to see a phone number just couple digits off your own office.

All voters:
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 34% (+5)
Calderon (PAN) 26% (-2)
Madrazo (PRI) 22% (+1)
Mercado (Alianza Social Democrata y Campesina) 2%
Campa (Panal) 1%
Don't know/none 15%

Voters who decided on the candidate and said that they have the valid voter's ID (the last day to apply for a new card was Jan. 15, though voters will be getting the cards for another month and those who lose their card have until Feb. 28 to apply for a replacement).
Lopez Obrador 40%
Calderon 30%
Madrazo 26%
Campa 2%
Mercado 2%

Regional:
North (Baja California, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tamaulipas y Zacatecas)
Calderon 40%
Madrazo 32%
Lopez Obrador 26%
Mercado 2%
Campa 0%

Center-West (Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacan y Nayarit)
Calderon 41%
Lopez Obrador 32%
Madrazo 23%
Campa 2%
Mercado 2%

Center (Mexico City, Mexico State, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Queretaro y Tlaxcala)
Lopez Obrador 53% (!!)
Calderon 22%
Madrazo 19%
Campa 3%
Mercado 3%
Note: the extraordinary results in the center might be explained by the Sunday PRD primaries for local/congressional offices in Mexico City. While for an entire month the presidential candidates themselves couldn't campaign, the PRD "pre-candidates" have plastered the city with yellow signs, all pledging to support Lopez Obrador.  Likewise, Mercado and Campa (Gordillo) have been particularly active in Mexico City.

South (Campeche, Chiapas, Guererro, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz, Yucatan)
Lopez Obrador 41%
Madrazo 32%
Calderon 25%
Campa 1%
Mercado 1%

Is it better for the president to be single or married (Obrador is widowed, the others are married)

Not very important either way - 54%
Married - 40%
Single - 2%
Don't know - 4%

Is it important for the president to speak English (Calderon is fluent - he studied for a couple of graduate degrees in the U.S. I am not certain about Madrazo, but he is likely to be somewhat competent - he spends lots of time in his Florida condo; I don't know about Lopez Obrador):

Yes, it is important - 82%
No, unimportant - 15%
Don't know - 3%

If the elections for Congress were today, whom would you vote for:
PAN - 27%
Alliance for the good of all (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 26%
Alliance for Mexico (PRI-PVEM) 26%
Nueva Alianza (Panal) 3%
Alternativa Socialdemocrata y Campesina 2%
Don't know/Didn't answer - 17%

Excluding  those who don't know:
PAN - 32%
Alliance for the good of all (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 32%
Alliance for Mexico (PRI-PVEM) 31%
Nueva Alianza (Panal) 3%
Alternativa Socialdemocrata y Campesina 2%

In other news, both Madrazo and Calderon have published statements about their property (cars, houses, bank accounts, their's and their spouses). Madrazo is rich - almost $40 mln. pesos (just under $4 mln dollars) - not bad for a lifetime public servant and politician of modest origins. Calderon is well off: about $8 mln pesos ($800,000 dollars) - sort of expected of someone of his social class; half of that is his house in a middle class neighborhood (this sounds mostly right, though I'd expect such house to be slightly more expensive if he were to put it on the market now, though not by much - a retired midlevel government engineer/ university professor I know has just bought something similar not far).

[ag]

1. I guess, Alternativa Socialdemocrata is indeed the same thing as Mexico Posible (Patricia Mercado sure was/is in both). Who really cares? The main objective of such a party is to get 2% of the vote to be able to run the next time in a coalition with a major party, get its share of congressional seats and mayoralties and the subsidies from the Electoral Institute. They are not viable as independent forces - even if they might think otherwise. Getting Castañeda could have been a coup for them, and ideologically there isn't much of an obstacle, but Castañeda was bent on running as independent, no matter how illegal this is by Mexican law. Also, there is a small problem of what to do with Mercado.  In any case, it is far from clear that they would have created problems for PRD - they'd take more votes from PAN (virtually everyone I know who could have voted for Castañeda will vote for Calderon).

2. The North includes two (though small) states overwhelmingly controlled by PRD (BJS and Zacatecas) - they might get large majorities there. Elsewhere, its hard to say what they'd really get. Obrador has been developing his own support networks (separate from PRD) and he has been courting the left wing of the PRI for years (in fact, he is increasingly surrounded by recent PRI defectors). The first thing to figure out is what will the newly dissident PRI establishment do. I guess, a lot depends on what people like Governor Bours (of Sonora) decide - if they put the local PRI machine (quietly) behind either Calderon or Lopez Obrador the results would change sharply. Another unknown is what Elba Gordillo will do. My conjecture is that she will, eventually, make the Teachers' Union and Panal into informal Calderon's subsidiaries, but if she just stays anti-Madrazo, the teachers would have a free vote (it is highly unlikely she joins up with Lopez Obrador).

3. Allow me not to name the university - I'd like a bit of anonymity here (who knows, there might be a potential student here). I am a (neo-liberal ) economist.

4. I think I've known Dr. Simi had smthg in Central America - have now clue about the rest of the continent. Most likely, it's indeed him and some of his cousins - Mexican industry is very inbred. There are different levels of approval: what he sells seems not to be outright poisonous; but he claims his drugs to be chemically identical to approved medications, while nobody really knows if they are. The production process is very important - and nobody knows what are the standards under which his stuff is produced. At least, the Mexican authorities refuse to approve his drugs for public hospitals (and he refuses to run trials), and the doctors seem to agree (decent doctors usually warn their patients not to buy anything in these farmacies).

[ag]

bump (to avoid topic duplication)

[ag]

What type of person votes PRI? It seems like an odd party to get so many votes in a truly free election. What's the demographic and mindset of your average PRI voter?

Every type of person votes PRI. What exactly surprises you? A lot of people vote PRI for historical/patriotic reasons. It is the party of Mexican nationalism, of Mexican Revolution, and generally of Mexican patriotism (hey, their colors are the national colors - would you vote against your flag ?). A lot of people vote for PRI for stability sake - the devil you know. A lot of people vote for venal reasons - the old PRI machine, in places, still can get you some sensible goodies. A lot of people vote for a candidate, not for the party: there are quite a few good candidates running under the banner (for instance, the PRI candidate for Mexico City mayor - Beatriz Paredes - is by far the best alternative that will be on the ballot in July; pity she has almost no chance - the PRI almost never gets elected even dogcatchers in the city; though, given how uninspiring the PRD hack running for the mayor is, she just might). A lot of people are voting against the alternatives: the "mad/treasonous/populist/dangerous" (pick your favorite) PRD and the "clerical/treasonous/rich/impotent" (pick your favorite) PAN. A lot of people vote PRI because they always did (are there REALLY other parties?).

The demographic - basically, a cross-section of the society, with some exceptions. Now, the party has a truly horrible candidate in Roberto Madrazo this time, so in the end they might perform badly - but this would be because of the candidate.

[ag]

On March 12 there will be state elections in Mexico State - the largest state in the country (15 mln. people), surrounding the capital city on three sides, tough not including it. State congress, local councils and mayors are being elected (elections for governor were held last year for a 6-year term, and PRI held the seat). For this reason, Reforma has run a poll of mayoral elections in 7 large municipalities within the state: 6 Mexico City suburbs and the state capital Toluca. In addition they've asked about the presidential preferences for July. In each city 620 likely voters were asked (not very large samples, but huge, given that these are municipal polls).  The state is currently ruled by PRI on all levels, but PRI is actually weak and out of power in the polled municipalities (these together have somewhat more than a third of the state population):

The following are presidential preferences in % of those actually expressing preference (roughly 90% of the total):

1. Nezahualcoyotl (a huge - 1.5 mln. people - mostly extremely poor eastern suburb, PRD stronghold):

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 69%
Calderon (PAN) 17%
Madrazo (PRI) 12%
Others 2%

2. Ecatepec (the largest - nearly 2mln. people - northeastern suburb, largely poor, with middle class enclaves)

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 57%
Calderon (PAN) 21%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 3%

3. Naucalpan (a largish – some 1.2 mln. people – northwestern suburb, combination of solid middle class areas and poorer parts)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 44%
Calderon (PAN) 33%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 4%

4. Tlalnepantla (a largish – some 800 thousand people – northern suburb, similar to, tough slightly poorer than Naucalpan)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 43%
Calderon (PAN) 38%
Madrazo (PRI) 14%
Others 5%

5. Atizapan (a smaller western suburb, some fairly rich areas, some mixed areas, some poor villages)
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 39%
Calderon (PAN) 38%
Madrazo (PRI) 19%
Others 4%

6. Huixquilucan (a smallish western suburb, some of the “filthiest rich” areas in the country, though some poor villages as well)

Lopez Obrador (PRD) 39%
Calderon (PAN) 32%
Madrazo (PRI) 28%
Others 1%

In contrast, Toluca, - a midsize state capital (there are a few hundred thousand people within the municipality, though there are several million in the metro area; it’s a major industrial city, mixture of all sorts of classes – neither filthy rich, nor very poor) which is outside of the metropolitan Mexico City and, thus, less susceptible to the influence of
its former mayor Lopez Obrador presents a radically different picture:

Calderon (PAN) 40%
Lopez Obrador (PRD) 30%
Madrazo (PRI) 28%
Others 2%

[ag]

And now the mayoral polls:

1.   Nezahualcoyotl
Bautista (PRD) 64%
Quiles (PRI and PVEM) 17%
Martinez (PAN) 15%
Ramos (PT) 2%
Hernandez (Convergencia)2%

2.   Ecatepec
Bedolla (PRI-PVEM) 38%
Gutierrez (PRD-PT) 35%
Alexander (PAN) 24%
Espindola (Convergencia) 3%

3.   Naucalpan
Duran (PAN) 43%
Parra (PRI-PVEM) 29%
Bacilio (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 28%

4.   Tlalnepantla
Rodriguez (PAN) 45%
Del Toro (PRD) 29%
Malpaca (PRI-PVEM) 23%
Aguilar (Convergencia) 3%

5.   Atizapan
Alarcon (PAN) 53%
Velez (PRI-PVEM) 24%
Yanez (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 23%

6.   Huixquilucan
Fuentes (PRI-PVEM) 47%
Inzunza (PAN) 36%
Enriquez (PRD-PT) 16%
Galvan (Convergencia) 1%

7.   Toluca
Sanchez (PAN) 48%
Miranda (PRI-PVEM) 42%
Lara (PRD) 7%
Chavarria (PT-Convergencia) 3%

[ag]

Mexico State elections on Sunday. Though reporting is still unfinished, it seems conclusions can be made already. PRI (in coalition w/PVEM nearly everywhere, so I will not mention PVEM) and, especially, PAN did slightly worse than in 2003, PRD gained substantially, becoming the second party both in municipal and legislative vote (there it has come close to matching PRI, in fact), but overall results are strikingly similar to the last election. I will start w/ the municipal vote (though there are still some mayoralties that are too close to call). The turnout was low - barely above the 2003 midterm election (and w/ growing population, possibly not even that). What follows are results of the vote for municipal presidents (mayors) of the largest municipalities in the state (according to the 2000 census). I will try to report every municipality w/ at least 75 thousand residents.

1.  Ecatepec (1.62 mln in 2000)
PRD/PT pickup from PRI is by far the biggest prize of the day! W 2/3 of the precincts reporting the 14 thousand vote lead seems insurmountable (PRD/PT 100,233:PRI 86,211:PAN 52,959)

2. Nezahualcoyotl (1.224 mln. in 2000)
Easy PRD hold. PRD is on track to improve on its spectacular 50.3% in 2003 (with multiple parties, absolute majorities are extremely rare).

3. Naucalpan (858 thousand in 2000)
Easy PAN hold, though possibly with a slightly reduced majority. PRD/PT overcome PRI for the second spot.

4. Tlalnepantla (721 thousand in 2000)
Another easy PAN hold, though the majority is reduced sharply (last time it was 54%, this time it will be around 40-45%). Once again, PRD/PT comes second ahead of PRI.

5. Toluca (666 thousand in 2000)
The state capital is PAN's brightes spot of the night! Easy hold with sharply increased majority. Whereas last time it was 39% for PAN vs. 37% for PRI, this time PAN is likely to get well above 50%. PRD seems to collapse into local insignifficance (below 10% even if you include the PT that chose to fight this one separately from PRD).

6. Chimalhuacan (490 thousand in 2000)
PRI's one surviving top-ten municipality, a hold, though this time w/ a rather slim margin over PRD/PT this time. PAN hasn't been a major player here, might get 10%, which would be an improvement over the last time.

7. Atizapan de Zaragoza (467 thousand in 2000)
PAN holds easily, possibly reaching 50% this time (up from 43% last time). PRI does worse, but keeps the second spot, hotly pursued by PRD/PT/Convergencia combine.

8. Cuatitlan Izcalli (453 thousand in 2000)
PAN holds easily, PRI second, PRD third - exactly like last time.

9.Tultitlan (432 thousand in 2000)
PRD/PT holds easily w/ an increased majority (though still under 50%) over PRI, PAN remains distant third.

10. Valle de Chalco Solidaridad (323 thouand in 2000)
PRD easily holds, PRI drops, PAN third. Exactly as above, but w/ a quirk that this time PT is allied w/ PAN (yes, this also happens).

Of the top 10 municipalities PAN holds 5, PRD now has 4 (+1 - the biggest of them all), and PRI drops to 1 (-1).

11. Ixtapaluca (293 thousand in 2000)
PRD gains from PRI attaining 50%! PAN is now even more insignifficant then before (under 10%).

12. Nicolas Romero (269 thousand in 2000)
The second-biggest upset of the night. PRI gains from PAN w/ a good lead (and PAN had over 49% last time!). PRD improves significantly, but remains distant third.

13. Coacalco (252 thousand in 2000)
Another PAN disaster tonight. PRI gains it from PAN and is in a close race w/ PRD, while PAN drops to third!

14. Chalco (222 thousand in 2000)
Last time it was an exact draw between PRI and PRD! (I don't remember how it was resolved). This time there is nothing to resolve, w/ PRD in a clear lead. PAN remains distant third, gaining a few - but too few to compete - votes, though.

15. La Paz (213 thousand in 2000)
PRD gain from PRI on a good-sized swing. PAN would have avoided embarassment the second time in a row if it skipped this town completely.

16. Texcoco (204 thousand in 2000)
PRD hold. Last time it was close, this time it is not - PRD comes close to 60%. PRI this time is distant second, PAN remains even more distant third. 

17. Metepec (194 thousand in 2000)
A three-way split in Toluca suburbs that is still too close to call. It was also a three-way (even 4-way) last time, but PAN won w/ 31% of the vote. In this year's replay PRD/PT so far has 22,812 votes (most of it on the PT line, actually), PAN has 22,615 and PRI 22,319. Still 7 precincts out of 221 to report, and a lot of work for the electoral tribunal.

18. Huixquilucan (193 thousand in 2000)
The richest suburb of Mexico City is likewise too close to call, but this one is only a two-way. Last time it was, actually, three-way, w/ PRI getting it w/33%, w/ 28% each for PAN and PRD (PRD, in fact, was slightly ahead of PAN). This time PRD/PT dropped far behind, leaving it for PAN and PRI to play out. They produced another cliff-hanger, w/ 20,211 votes for PRI and 19,468 votes for PAN (PRD/PT, so far, has less then 8 thousand votes). W/ 17 out of 218 precincts still left to report, anything can still happen.

19. San Felipe del Progreso (177 thousand in 2000)
PRI hold fairly easily. PRD overcome PAN for the second spot.

20. Tecamac (172  thousand in 2000)
Another cliff-hanger, though this one might produce a PAN pick-up. Last time PRI had an easy victory w/ 49% for PAN's 31%. This is a very fast-growing exurb, though, and the population must have changed. This time we have, so far, PAN leading w/ 25,791 votes for PRI's 25,328 (PRD is under 10 thousand). W/10 out of 215 precincts still to report, it is still too close to call.

21. Zinacantepec (122 thousand in 2000)
Very similar to Tecamac. Last time PRI got it in close fight w/ PT, w/ PAN and PRD left behind. This time, it is even a closer fight between PAN and PRI. PAN, so far leads w/ 10,697 votes for PRI's 10,489. PT is under 8 thousand, and PRD is under 5 - they sure wish now they had a joint candidate (together they top 12 thousand easily).

22. Ixtlahuaca (116 thousand in 2000)
Last time it was Convergencia's biggest success in close fight w/PRI. This time PRI revenged, attaining an easy victory. Convergencia is second, PAN is third, PRD is fourth.

23. Almoloya de Juarez (111 thousand in 2000)
PRI, PRD, PAN comfortably spaced, exactly as last time. Easy PRI hold. The only change is Convergencia replacing PT as the fourth force.

24. Zumpango (100 thousand in 2000)
Easy PRI hold. PAN and PRD fought hard for the second spot - PRD got it this time, by a couple of votes, but both are far behind PRI.

25. Lerma (100 thousand in 2000)
Exactly as Zumpango. Easy PRI hold.

26. Tejupilco (95 thousand in 2000)
PRI gains from PRD (this is the biggest PRD loss of the day - which simply says how successful PRD is this time). PAN far behind.

27. Tultepec (93 thousand in 2000)
Last time PRD just got it, this time PRD/PT gets over 50%. PRI second, PAN third, if that matters. PRD hold.

28. Chicoloapan (78 thousand in 2000)
As Tultepec, but PRD majority is actually reduced this time. PRI gave it a run for the money, but still PRD hold

29. Tenancingo (77 thousand in 2000)
PRD comes from the third spot to win it in a close three-way race. PRI second, PAN third. PRD pickup from PRI.

30. Atlacomulco (77 thousand in 2000)
Easy PRI hold. PAN second, PRD - third (as last time).

31. Cuatitlan (76 thousand in 2000)
PRI holds easily. PRD overtakes PAN for second.

This leaves me w/ another 94 municipalities of the state, but even my insomnia is insufficient to do them . Updates on cliff-hangers and results of the state legislative election tomorrow.

[ag]

AMLO seems to be going straight to the presidency...

Not yet. I'd give him a 2/3 chance of winning, but no more, as of yet. Old Engineer Cardenas is still silent, and there are still a lot of other things that can go wrong. Calderon has had a miserable month - but elections are still a few months off, and he has the most money.

Even this state election is inconclusive: yes PRD did a bit better and PAN a bit worse then last time, but all that happened is that PRD vote share has been bumped from pre-AMLO days up by something like 5% to around 31% on a 40% turnout. The principal impact is in terms of impression: PRI was supposed to disintegrate, and it didn't, tough it did retreat a bit. PAN was supposed to improve, and it deteriorated slightly, with the vote share dropping a couple of percentage points to 26-27% (though, in fact, it will govern more municipalities than before, but the gains are smaller-sized and/or less known than the losses). PRD was supposed to improve, and it did, and even though the improvement is slight it feeds into the impression that everything is on a roll.

Even though it is still a three-way tie in the Mexico State (the gap between the first-place PRI w/ under 32% of the vote and third-place PAN w/ almost 27% of the vote is still tiny), the perceptions are more important here, and they, of course, benefit AMLO, and if they accumulate they will become self-fulfilling. Still, the hairline nature of underlying advantage means that if something bad happens and starts changin the perceptions, the change might be quite abrupt. What is undeniable is that the anti-obradorista camp is in panic right now. Yesterday Madrazo was pepperred w/ pleas to withdraw in favor of Calderon in an appearance before a group of museum donors. Fat chance!

[ag]

[quote author=YoMartin link=topic=23247.msg847178#msg847178 but preferences have looked quite stable all along the campaign, right?
[/quote]

Stable, as in 4% to 10% advantage for AMLO, going back and forth, depending on the month and the polling organization. Now, 10% is indeed a lot, but 4% is bridgeable. Still, of course, it is his race to loose, but there is still enough time for many things to happen. Hence, my estimate of a 2/3 probability of his victory - things aren't really beyond the point of inevitability.

On the other hand, Calderon's campaign does seem to be more inept than he can afford. Thus, they've completely mismanaged the spin of Mexico State results. They made it into a far bigger defeat than it was by insisting untill the last they were doing better than they were. They failed to accentuate the successes they've had - Toluca result alone should have been milked for all its worth. This is just one example, but it is indicative. Not that they are totally incompetent, but they don't seem competent enough to come from behind.