Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Putin's concern is maintaining the Crimean bases, warm-water Black Sea ports with access to the Med and beyond - it's the most Russian thing there is, that plus a bruised ego of having his puppet thrown out of office. You're fooling yourself if you think there is anything more to this than that.

It's OK there's allowed to be a bad guy here...

There's no reason for Crimea to be part of Ukraine. The "bad guys" are the rich corrupt thugs who oppress Ukraine's working class, whether they're Merkel's puppets or Putin's puppets.

There is no reason for you to be spouting nonsense in support of various fascist dictators all over the world either. Nevertheless, you are continuously doing it: just for fun, I presume.

[ag]

Snowstalker pure leftist ...

You mean, ultra-rightist, don't you?

[ag]

What are our treaty obligations with Ukraine like?

You have guaranteed its independence territorial integrity in exchange for taking its nukes. I guess, if you are not willing to put a few tank divisions in ASAP, you should give the Kiev government their nukes back.

[ag]

It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Well, if somebody does not want WWIII what s/he should do is

1. Immediately stop all negotiations with the Russians on all matters not having to do with the withdrawal from Ukraine. No contacts whatsoever on any matters - however minor or innocuous. The non-essential personnel at the embassy (and families) should be removed ASAP and in a very demonstrative fashion, US citizens advised to avoid traveling to Russia (and those resident there, advised to leave). Consulates outside of Moscow should be closed. Restrict issuance of US visas to the holders of the Russian diplomatic and service passports to the Consular Sections of the US embassies in Kiev and Tbilisi (continue stamping the visas into the regular passports in Moscow, to the extent that the reduced consular representation makes it possible).  Russians should be forced to sharply reduce their embassy staff and close their consulates as well. Encourage the allies to take similar diplomatic measures.

2. Immediately impose painful economic sanctions on Russian elites. The Magnitsky list should be expanded to include a few thousand people, at least (including the families of all the Russian MPs who voted to authorize the use of force in Ukraine). Put under the sanction regime all major Russian public and semi-public companies (including the likes of Gazprom). All financial transactions between US and Russia should be put under scrutiny. Russia should be put under notice that unless all troops are removed ASAP, all Russian assets in the US will be confiscated and used to finance the Ukrainian government (any attempt to preemptively remove such assets at this point should be summarily blocked).  Impose a special tariff on all Russian exports and imports to be dedicated to financing of the Ukrainian government.  Restrict the use of the US  airspace to all Russian air traffic.

3. Urgently remove all the restrictions on oil exports from the US. Guarantee, as much as possible, to the Europeans that their energy needs will be taken care of no matter what happens, as long as they join with the sanctions regime. Especially encourage the Turks to join in (they should not be too hard a sell - they are worried). Stress, that Turkish government will get the full support of the US in suspending the action of the Montreux convention on the Straights navigation: Bosporus has to be closed off ASAP. Lithuanians and Poles should be given guarantees of full support in closing the land transit to Kaliningrad.

4. Resume, very publically, the negotiations with the European allies on missile protection systems.  Make it clear that this is done in response to the new situation.

5. Start, as soon as practicable, major war exercises with the NATO partners in the region - both around the Black Sea and in the Baltics (as practicably close to St. Petersburg as possible). Reinforce NATO garrisons in Poland, the Baltics and in Norway. Negotiate with the Ukrainian government a few bases inside Ukraine (in friendly, pro-Western areas - but this would not only be Lviv, but also Sumy and Chernihiv, right on the Russian border). 

6. Another major war exercise should be conducted with the Japanese, around the Northern coast of Hokkaido. Support should be hinted to the Japanese claim on the Northern Territories. If Georgians and Turks agree, have the Turkish troops take positions on the LOCs near South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Have Moldovans and Romanians start very public negotiations about establishing Romanian bases near Transnistria.

7. At the same time, US diplomats should be rushed to Central Asia and other ex-Soviet states, offering guarantees of protection against the Russian invasion. Those visits should be very public - give them as much media coverage as possible, have Kerry himself go to Astana. The Kyrgyzstan airbase should be reinforced, if the Kyrgyz government allows (make it very hard for them not to allow).

If all this is done in rapid succession and decisively, there is still some chance of avoiding WWIII.

[ag]

It's times like this we need John McCain in the White House, without Palin as VP of course.

You want WWIII?

If you don't want WWIII, what do you imagin McCain would actually do?

Putin and the Russians would take McCain more seriously than they ever would Obama.

McCain would take a much firmer stance and wouldn't let the Russian dictator push him around.

Again, try not to include policies that would cause WWIII.

The only policy that would lead to WWIII is appeasement. Do not appease.

[ag]

Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

[ag]

Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

It will make Russians very unhappy. And will be a big strike against Putin´s personal tastes.

[ag]

Ah, and there is one more thing that should be done, though it is out of the hands of the US government. Put pressure to have Russian sportsmen restricted from international competition. In particular, what would be very effective, is expelling Russia from the UEFA - right now, before the World Cup (while FIFA as a whole might resist, UEFA should be an easier sell - there are quite a few federations there, which are going to be very sympathetic). Canceling the Russian World Cup in four years time would be great as well - if it could be done (make it clear to the FIFA bureaucrats that otherwise there would be a major boycott).

But here US government could only exert pressure, not act by itself.

Yeah, punish a bunch of soccer players. Not like politicizing international sports hasn't backfired before.  That'll show Russia.

And, anyway, the sportsmen themselves should be allowed to perform - just not under the Russian flag. Renouncing Russian citizenship should be welcomed.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

What I meant was the "Russian section of Facebook". The russophone community there is fairly insular.

Ok, but why should be taken seriously those messages? It's a social network, people says lots of imaginary things just for trolling.

Seems like the guy knows what he is saying. Also, sounds fairly plausible - fits what I myself know.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

What's "Russian Facebook"?

I thought he was referring to VK at first, but I now understand that wasn't the case.

FB has been taking over even in Russia. VK remains in use, but increasingly the people who could have such inside info are not there.

[ag]

From Russian Facebook

.... (somebody claiming inside info about what is happening high up in the regime)

1. Decision on Crimea was taken personally by Putin. He is fully supported by a small group of top officials (5 or 6 men), by coincidence those not having any assets in the West (...)

2. If the West cannot stop Putin during the coming week, there will be an annexation of Eastern Ukraine.

3. Kremlin is basing its plans on having as its opposite the weakest post-war political elite in the West. American leadership is viewed absolutely derisively. Economic sanctions do not make the

4. However, the threat of personal economic sanctions has scared the sh**t out of the other officials, both around the president and around the prime minister. One of them has been hospitalized with heart trouble.

5. However, these officials will not dare to go against Putin. They are almost superstitious in their belief in his luck, say that up till now Putin got everything he wanted.

If Russia was to invade say the eastern half of the Ukraine, I think the US would start redeploying most of its military to eastern Europe, and see if Putin takes the hint.

It would make a lot more sense to be doing it before, not after. Because by then Putin's cost of getting out would be a lot higher. And, if US does not do something very radical very soon, he WILL occupy a lot more.

[ag]

Russia is apparently talking about building a bridge across the Kerch Strait (the strait at the eastern end of Crimea, at the entrance to the Sea of Azov); this would give a connection from Crimea to Russia without going through the rest of Ukraine.

Land connection - sure. But it would not resolve the water problem.

[ag]

Dmitry Medvedev posted a peculiar message on Twitter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wonder if this could finally drive a wedge between Putin and Medvedev. Putin is ex-KGB, so doesn't seem to comprehend. Medvedev on the other hand was once a business executive himself back in the 90s.

The myth of good Medvedev is a fairy tail for six-year-olds. To begin with, Medvedev has no political life of his own: even if for some reason he were to revolt, it would cause no more trouble to Putin then a malfunctioning ball pen.

[ag]

Events. Pro-Russian "demonstrations" are storming the administration buildings in Odessa and Donetsk. The "demonstrators" (in the last few days they were being recruited in Russian social networks IN RUSSIA) are not at all numerous, but they are shooting. In Odessa, the besieged regional council has adopted a resolution AGAINST the Russian invasion.

[ag]

Paralympics are scheduled to start in Sochi as planned, although all Western politicians are probably going to boycott.

Given that the attention is no longer on Sochi and that the Russians are otherwise preoccupied, I would be scared to go, frankly. The security may well miss something.

[ag]

I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

Remember the old joke about the 1968 events in Prague? They used to say that after the invasion, the Polish government prohibited swimming in the Bug river: what if somebody starts drowning, calls for help and is heard by the Russians?

[ag]

Russians in Donetsk, Kharkiv dont want this fascist ukrainian government.

Plus there are rumblings in Riga, Vilnius with the ethnic russians.

And, most definitely in Anchorage. Alaska was and will be Russian, of course.

Stop talking bullsh**t.

[ag]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

[ag]

Just read this line: "What's Happening In Crimea Would Be Like France Sending Troops To Quebec."

I think that's a tough analogy, since France doesn't border Quebec.

The analogy ppl keep coming to is Germany with Czechoslovakia in 1938.

The paranoia of any military crisis being the eve of the next Great War is embedded in the American psyche.

Except that in this case this is pretty much a description.

US has treaty obligations here. Either the invading Russian troops get bombed by US, UK (and, hopefully, the rest of the NATO troops), or US treaty obligations are not worth the paper they are written on. If US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan might as well negotiate decent terms of joining China.

[ag]

To respond to the idiots who talk about Ukrainians wanting to join Russia, here is the latest poll

Proportion of those polled who want to join Russia

Crimea 41%
Donetsk 33%
Luhansk 24%
Odessa 24%
Zaporizhia 17%
Kharkiv 15%
Chernihiv 15%
Dnipropetrivsk 14%
Kirovohrad 8%
Kyiv Province 6%
Chernivtsi 5%
Kyiv City 5%
Zhytomyr 5%
Poltava  4%
Cherson  4%
Mykolayiv 4%
Vinnytsya 3%
Transcarpatia 2%
Sumy 2%
Cerkasy 2%
Khmelnytsky 0%
Ternopil 0%
Rivne 0%
Lviv 0%
Volyn 0%
Ivano-Frankivsk 0%

Source?

http://www.profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/novosti-sng/ukraine/entry1008201702.html

Polled between Feb 8 and Feb 18

[ag]

The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Nobody is offering the last two: independence means being part of Russia, and "autonomy" in Russia means having a local guy designated to lick Putin's balls on special occasions.

[ag]

The interesting poll in Crimea would be three choices: autonomous state in Ukraine, autonomous state in Russia, or full independence.

Hm, in the event of Crimea becoming a part of Russia I assume they would want a Republic status. Would be unusual, given native Russian population dominating here, as Republic status is pretty much reserved for ethnic regions (like Tatarstan, Chechnya, etc.)

Some of the Republics have only small native minorities: think Karelia. Tartars and Ukrainians would be sufficient here. But that status means very little these days.

[ag]

I've always considered ag as one of the most reasonable people here. That's why I'm disturbed with him predicting the doomsday.

Russia has just announced at the Security Council that Yanukovich asked for military help (they were unable to produce the living Yanukovich to do this - at his one press conference in Russia, though very nervous, lost, and talking nonsense he never uttered the words). You still wonder why I am preaching doom?

That's your indicator the WWIII is coming?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I also remember invasion on Czechoslovakia caused a global war. Oh wait.

In 1938 it was the precursor.