Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.

I know. You would have, probably, supported replacing all Southerners with good law-abiding Yankees after the Civil War. There was still enough space in interior Brazil back then.

Do not be an idiot.

[ag]

Seems like things are quieter today. Apparently, it was not a general assault yesterday, just trying to retake the Airport, etc.

Anyway, given the news, perhaps Ukrainians do have every reason to be a lot more active. Massive penetration of Ukrainian border by columns of trucks with fighters, guns, ammunition, etc. Ukrainians did manage to capture a couple (loaded with AKs), but most got through, apparently.

Wonderful country that is Russia. What a right to bear arms: you can load your truck with assault weapons and drive to the border, and nobody will tell you anything. Why wouldn´t anyone drive a truck like this to the Lubyanka square?

[ag]

Insurrectionists can be expelled. In the Crimea, at least, it is not really their land, anyway.

I know. You would have, probably, supported replacing all Southerners with good law-abiding Yankees after the Civil War. There was still enough space in interior Brazil back then.

Do not be an idiot.

It is simply the way things have been done historically, why should it have been any different? I have agreed with you, no need to hyperbolic.

There IS a major disagreement. I happen to oppose mass deportations as a matter of fundamental principle.

[ag]

I think there are a lot of places where they could resolve problems definitively. This might be one of them.

So you advocate ethnic cleansing?

There's no need for buzzwords, particularly when we're talking about a reactive solution rather than something unprovoked.

The justification Stalin used for deporting Crimean Tartars (and many others) was exactly this: they, ostensibly, actively collaborated with the enemy. Actually, in a few cases, it was not even wholly wrong: say, Chechens would revolt whenever Russia was weak - and it was not strong ca. 1942.

There are things one does NOT do. Ethnic cleansing is one of those things.

And, in any case, in Donetsk you cannot even do the ethnic cleansing properly. The difference between the local Russians and local Ukrainians is tiny. Frequently, loyalties split families. Many of those, who are in revolt - and even more of those who quietly support it - are doing this because they are scared by Russian propaganda (which, frankly, has long achieved the level of "Goebbelsian" - but is no less effective for that).

[ag]

Perhaps in the Donbass it could be limited to active collaborators, but those in the Crimea who have declared themselves to be Russian should have their wishes respected and be treated accordingly if an when Ukraine establishes authority over the region. If you want to call that "ethnic cleansing", be my guest.

Well, you just gave the Russians the chance to deport the Tartars: you know, they have their wishes quite public as well. Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII. Besides, how are you going to distinguish those who voted for Russia from those who did not?

Fortunately, Ukrainian government is very explicit in distinguishing between active traitors: those who actively participated in the annexation - and the rest, whom it considers its citizens and whom it is trying to take care of. This is both much more morally sound - and more productive in the long term.

[ag]

Many of those Russians in Crimea have lived there for generations -  quite a few have ancestors who had lived there before WWII.

Moreover, they became largest ethnic group before Stalin's deportations, by 1900 numbers of Russians and Crimean Tatars were equal.

Not quite, though fairly close. In total, the 1897 census recorded 167,813 (Greater) Russians and 194,294 Tartars out of the total of roughly 550 thousand people in the parts of the Tavrida government that are in Crimea. However, at the time Russians were concentrated in a few places, especially in traditional military cities at the edge of the peninsula. At the 1897 census (Greater) Russians were huge majorities only in Sevastopol (63%) and Kerch (56%) city districts - in both cities Tartars were virtually absent (6% in Kerch and 3% in Sevastopol). Tartars were either in majority (Yalta) or formed a plurality in most other places.  Of the total number of (Greater) Russians, over 60 thousand were resident in those two towns alone (only 6,000 around Tartars lived there). Thus, once you get out of Kerch and Sevastopol, Tartars were outnumbering Russians nearly 2 to 1 (though, as I am taking the number from the linguistic table of the census, some of those could have been Jews, etc. - though, of course, there were also some Russian-speaking non-Russians).

Tartars still (slightly) outnumbered Russians by 1926: 140 thousand to 121 thousand out of the total of around 380 thousand (I guess, the Civil War did not treat the local population kindly ). There were also nearly 50 thousand Ukrainians, as well as 40 thousand Germans, 10 thousand Bulgarians and 6.5 thousand Greeks, all of whom would also be later expelled by Stalin (I am not sure about the Greeks), and 4 thousand Jews, who would be killed by Hitler.

The situation did, likely, change by the late 1930s, of course. Unfortunately, we do not have another proper census in the Soviet Union till 1959, as the 1939 census is well known to be seriously falsified. In fact, there had been a real census in 1937, but those results were scrapped, as they did not conform to what Stalin wanted to hear: given the sad fate of those who organized the 1937 census, their successors had the incentives not to produce surprises. While I do not think that falsifying the ethnic composition of Crimea was an objective at the time (the main "fault" of the 1937 demographers had been to give "too low" population numbers, which, likely, reflected the real disasters that happened in between), but I am simply not sure it would be appropriate to use the 1939 result as a proper historical source.

[ag]

According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

[ag]

According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.

[ag]

According to RUSSIAN sources (which base themselves on the "DNR" statements), of those killed at Donetsk airport, 33 have been identified as Russian citizens, 15 are locals, more corpses are still in the no-man land and cannot be retrieved.

It increasingly seems that a) Ukrainians were more than justified in their actions and b) if anything, their actions are extremely moderate and exhibit obvious concern over the fate of civilians (they have demonstrated they are capable of a massive attack with lethal results, they obviously limit that kind of action to avoid civilian casualties - and the one time they went through with it was when the "DNR" people exposed themselves trying to storm the airport).

Would these have been actual Russian soldiers or merely the "polite people"?

Considering that the Crimean "polite people" were, as Putin himself acknowledged eventually, Russian soldiers, this is a funny question. Actually, it seems quite a few were volunteers. Though not quite clear, how many of those volunteers were voluntary, and how many were ordered to volunteer.

I find it interesting that even you are hesitant to outright claim that there are Russian soldiers in the Donbas. And it's nice that you've stopped with the bizarre claims about Russia wanting to invade half of Europe or something.
Regarding the supposed humanity of the Ukrainian military (of course considering that most of those killed around the airport were retreating, belief in such humanity requires some rather selective interpretation of the facts), what exactly is the justification for the recent usage of cluster ammunition against civilians in Luhansk? Or for that matter the frequent usage of artillery against settlements by the Ukrainian army? Or about the serious accusations against the so-called National Guard regarding war crimes?

1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.

2. I never said it will happen this year. I continue saying that, unless Ukraine stands up and supported, it will happen quite soon.

3. You seem to be watching quite a bit of Russian-produced news ("retreating", "cluster bombs", etc.). So much lying must be horrible for your digestive system. You will get an ulcer soon, unless yo stop.

4. The Luhansk bombing was, it seems, a -up. I am not an expert, though, so I will wait for more info. Still, it is by no means a humanitarian disaster - the Russian headquarters took the brunt: during a major battle in which they were attacking (eventually, successfully) a military camp (it surrendered 24 hours later).  Still, doing that in the city center, I will be the first to acknowledge, was irresponsible. And, in the end, useless - they did lose the battle. Of course, if they did not care about the civilians they could have easily won: so far the Russians do not dare to put in the air force, so Ukrainian force could have been devastating. But in the city this would mean civilian casualties.

5. It is well-documented that not only the Russians put their artillery within populated districts, but that they frequently use it to shoot other populated districts as well. You seem to ignore that little-significant fact. Ukrainians have to liberate their citizens who are in mortal danger from the invasion.

6. To sum up, the answer to "why are the Ukrainians doing" this or that is very simple: they are trying to protect YOUR country and YOUR family. Because YOU are next.  Though, perhaps, you would simply like that, wouldn't you?

[ag]

I somewhat doubt that Putin has any territorial desires against Bulgaria.

You know the old Russian saying? "Chicken is not a bird, Bulgaria is not abroad" (курица не птица, Болгария не заграница). And, of course, аппетит приходит во время еды (appetite comes while you eat).

Shows the culinary associations our cannibal nation has on this point

[ag]

1. Well, in quite a few cases we have of dead men identified, they had resigned from some Russian force days before coming to Ukraine to die.  Whatever that means. They are sending dead bodies to Russia by a truckload, BTW. Main Ukrainian export to the East these days. I do not know, why Russians want them.

Source for the truckloads?

Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.

[ag]

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Considering that Russia has now very good reasons to intervene against Ukraine, but is still doing basically nothing, your assertions do not seem to be based on anything but paranoia. Or perhaps a desire to get attention, but I prefer not to speculate. Though I wonder what your explanation is for why this ultra-aggressive Russia decided to start the wars of expansion against a country that actually gave it a pretty good excuse to do and in one of the few places where a Russian intervention would be welcomed.

Very good reasons - that Russia itself has manufactured with great care. Had the Ukrainians done nothing, of course, if they behaved as they in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk would have long been incorporated into Russia and the same "polite men" would have been in Cherson and Odessa by now.

[ag]

I've seen the cluster bombing reported quite a bit in foreign media. For example here in Bulgaria it was reported by Darik Radio which is about as right-wing and anti-Russian as you can get here.

You have missed the news. Most European fascists have switched to adoring Russia: the last Great White Hope of Europe.

[ag]

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That's possible. It's also possible that they think that this would be going too and Russia's patience will finally run out. Or that they will lose planes - and considering the state of the Ukrainian army, that's not a minor worry. And when you look at the record of the Ukrainian army and the thugs pretending to be a National guard regarding civilian casualties, I don't think your arguments look especially convincing.

I did not get any of this, except something about "Russian patience". I think, it might be worth putting into a signature. Patience of a wolf with respect to the sheep that has the gall to try kicking. How dare it - it might hurt the babies.

[ag]

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I don't exactly see how what Russia does excuse what Ukraine is doing (and it should be added that Russia was fighting actual terrorists). And the citizens in those regions were not in mortal danger until the Ukrainians began to "liberate" them (not to mention that they might not want to be liberated). It seems you are ignoring the Crimea, which despite being woefully deprived of a "liberation" campaign, suffered only three casualties. But I'm sure they're now envious there that the Donbas is about to be liberated

I wonder, what would you consider adequate action, if Varna were occupied by the Russians who were going around killing people and staging extra-judicial executions.

Yes, Ukraine gave up Crimea without fight, because it hoped to avoid casualties. Its reward: Donetsk and Luhansk. If it did not resist there, it would have been Cherson and Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and Charkiv, Sumy and Kyiv - and all the way to Lviv. So, they are resisting - how dare they.

Ukraine's basic excuse at this point is that it has given up its nukes back in the 1990s in exchange for "guarantees of territorial integrity". If it hadn't, it could have simply nuked Moscow - which would have been a proper response. But it cannot.

[ag]

The brave Ukrainians, protectors of the free world! Thanks, I needed a laugh. I should probably ask why you think that Russia would invade Bulgaria, but I see your non-response to Snowstalker, so it's pointless to try again, as you obviously don't have any rational arguments to support this idea. And the saying was about Poland, not Bulgaria.

Good, somebody still can laugh. I cannot anymore, I cry. We do not know, who is going to be next: but we know, that it only can be stopped by resistance. Unless the Russians feel the pain, they will go on. You are lucky to not have the common border: but that might be only a matter of time.

BTW, I hear your government has had the temerity to suspend the Southern Flow, hasn´t it? How dared it?

[ag]

Regarding your ridiculous insinuation that I would want my country to be invaded, I probably should feel insulted but then I realized that you probably would like it very much if Russia was to be controlled by other countries, so it's not surprising that you're projecting your views on other people.

You really do not want Bulgaria to be returned into the fold? Then switch back on your eyes, your ears and your brain, and get to terms with what is going on. The largest European country has had a proper fascist regime installed, the regime bent on acquiring back what it considers lost. It is a clear and present danger to all around it. Not so much to myself - I live in one of the safest places there is out there in case the worst happens. But you do not have that luxury.

Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCsRaD-2uW0

[ag]

One thing in which the Ukrainian government has been clearly delinquent is the refugee policy. It has been left to regions, really - very little is obviously done at the national level. And there has been a lot more done, it seems, about the Crimeans than about the Donetsk/Luhansk people (there the main preoccupation too frequently is that these may be infiltrators).

It goes beyond providing buses to take those who want to move (some public transportation still works in most places in any cas). At a minimum, what should have been done is creating an office in each regional capital responsible for temporary resettlement. A lot of the people in the affected regions are either retirees or state employees. They are left destitute in the worst-affected parts, which by itself prevents evacuation (for instance, in Slavyansk banks are closed and salaries/pensions are not being paid). The retirees should have been assisted in opening accounts in banks in locations of their choice.  State employees should have bee offered temporary transfers - even if, for the moment, there is no real job for them elsewhere. School year is over, fortunately, but schoolchildren also should be guaranteed places in schools. All evacuees should be paid some start-up money. Private companies should be offered tax incentives to hire them.

[ag]

Enjoy. http://echo.msk.ru/blog/maryautomne/1332306-echo/

There is more, if you are interested, but some of that is pretty graphic. Yandex груз 200, it will work.

I just was about to repeat that I did acknowledge that these guys tended to have RESIGNED from the Russian security services - sometimes days or weeks before finding themselves in Ukraine, so "technically" you were right. However, as of today, it seems, you are wrong even on technicality (not that being "technically" correct ever mattered).

http://www.ostro.org/general/society/news/446841/

Apparently, Russian anti-aircraft units have been protecting these tanks since the morning. This, by the way, is pretty deep inside Ukraine.

The war, of course, has been started and perpetuated BY the RUSSIANS. Nobody is even pretending otherwise - except in what goes for the consumption of some useful idiots in Europe. "Мы готовы умереть на развалинах Славянка, но с твердой верой, что наши убитые и раненые под безответным гаубичным огнем — не напрасные жертвы! И что мы не зря принесли с собой войну в этот прекрасный город и жертвы его населения тоже не напрасны!" This is not Ukrainian propaganda - this is His Excellency Comrade Strelkov, the Commander-in-Chief of the army of the Donetsk Republic in person (the gentleman, by the way, is a native of Moscow - he was a year senior to my wife in college - who had never lived anywhere near Donetsk). The victims are the victims of the Russians, whom you insist on defending. The war crimes are committed by the Russians - but, of course, as long as the war crimes are committed by true fascists you will always support them.

[ag]

Strongly nationalist repressive undemocratic regime, combining elements of personality cult of the National Leader, state capitalism (with private business and property rights operating at the pleasure of the Leader), servile judiciary, completely emasculated popular representation at all levels,   demonization of foreigners and selected minorities, marginalization of all opposition as "foreign agents", widespread use of criminal prosecution for political means, government control over most media (heavily used for internal propaganda purposes), strong expansionist demands towards neighbors, increasing militarization, expanded role of security services, use of extra-legal militarized formations by the government ... Should I continue? Any one of those or even a few together, perhaps, would not justify the "fascist" lable. But current Russian regime combines them all - and more. It is rapidly becoming a most classic fascist dictatorship - not recognizing it means either ignorance or intellectual dishonesty.

Anyway, the undisputed European fascists are in no doubt what they are facing. They all adore Mr. Putin - he is the one of them who got to live the dream.

[ag]

As war I am describing moving in a large number foreign agents into the country. There is not even a pretense that these were locals - all the top military commanders are Russians, with basically no history anywhere in Ukraine. For one of the first press-conferences they pushed out the one Ukrainian they had - and even that one has spent the last 20 years in Crimea (at one of the press-conferences he started crying that his family and childhood friends from his native village in Ukraine proper have been calling him, cursing him as a traitor: he said he would never forgive this to Ukrainian media).  They literally had nobody else with even a plausible Southern Russian - forget, Ukrainian - accent. I mean, they barely have any military commander of importance who pronounces the "gamma" as a "h" - this is not even Ukrainian, all the adjacent Russian provinces share this (remember one Mikhail Horbachev?).  It is true, the self-declared "political leaders" of the DNR and LNR are locals -  the most important of them previously known, mainly, for participating in pyramid schemes or for impersonating Santa Claus, almost none of them who had previously been involved in any sort of politics at all (unless you count getting a 100 votes while miserably losing in a city council election or other exploits of the same nature). Nor are they in control of anything in their "Republics" - they are puppets, whom the Russians arrest for any disagreement (the mother of the "people's mayor" of Slavyansk has been on TV crying that they have taken her son somewhere and she does not know where he is).  Strelkov has made speech after speech lambasting the locals for refusing to join in the Struggle: "we came in to fight for you, and you do not want to move a finger". Yes, a popular struggle it is.

These (well-armed) foreign agents occupy not merely public buildings, but military and police installations, distribute guns to local criminals (starting a waive of marauder attackes), arrest or otherwise disappear hundreds of local residents (some of whom are later found dead), declare extra-judicial executions (based on a Soviet decree from June 22, 1941 - I am not joking, this is the preamble to an execution list produced by Strelkov), confiscate private property (such as cars, houses, etc.) for "revolutionary needs", take over a chunk of the border, thorough which they increasingly receive military equipment....

Yes, it is not a war. It is a picnic by a group of polite Russian tourists, who are simply "reconstructing" some scenes from WWI. How could Ukrainians be so mistaken?

[ag]

Just back from Russia.  Should write up the impressions.

[ag]

One

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

Two

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11035401/Russian-armoured-vehicles-and-military-trucks-cross-border-into-Ukraine.html

Also, in the last week TWICE a major Putin address was advertised, both time not to happen. The first time, it was supposed to be on Russian TV, local stations were told there will be a presidential address, so that they would clear their broadcast schedule - never happened. Then yesterday Putin had a meeting with the Duma members in Crimea. There was a major build-up to him making a big speech - in the end, the Russian newscasts only briefly showed him talking (late in the newscast!) and quoted a few words (not even his voice was broadcast). Seems like there was another last-minute change of plans.

Today major changes in the "governments" of the two "people's republics". Clearly, Russian-orchestrated.  Now there is a persistent rumor, something major is supposed to happen in the last week of August. God save us all.

[ag]

 Ukraine should look for some way to help Putin to save face

This one seems quite precious, does it not?

[ag]

The bastards must be stopped:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border

They have been doing this for months, just not in sight of the Western media. Who is supposed to be doing the stopping? Ukrainians tried doing it by pushing a force along the border - with the most disastrous results (it got sandwiched between the "rebels" on one side and the regular Russians on the other - and all but destroyed). As we speak, they got another army group surrounded on the border. But, of course, they are supposed to be thinking how to let Mr. Putin "save his face".