Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH (user search)
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  Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Biden +7 in GA, +1 in OH  (Read 6740 times)
new_patomic
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,217


« on: October 14, 2020, 01:16:36 PM »

They seem to have a real lean-D bias in the South.
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new_patomic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,217


« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2020, 01:23:46 PM »

I appreciate that pollsters aren't herding but Q looks increasingly detached from the consensus. A fitting name for the times.

Quote
Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility.

Except that it would be in defiance of the longest and stubbornest trends of all: the movement of Deep South white voters, particularly rural/small-town southern white voters, away from the Democratic Party. If Biden's managing mean reversion, this isn't going to be where it happens much, if at all.

I thought the trend here was that Democrats were starting to win suburban/college-educated whites (or at least improve their abysmal margins) while basically hitting their floor with rural/non-college-educated whites?
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