IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[new_patomic]

The expectations game has been all over the place.

From the RGA:

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This was in the WSJ:

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Rauner also compared his primary challenge to Edgar, who won his second term primary 75-25.

But also Rauner said this on WGN radio...

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[new_patomic]

The expectations game has been all over the place.

From the RGA:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was in the WSJ:

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Rauner also compared his primary challenge to Edgar, who won his second term primary 75-25.

But also Rauner said this on WGN radio...

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I wonder if there is some fear in the Rauner camp of traditional Republican primary voters in the Chicagoland (his base) picking up a Democratic ballot.

Seems they're trying to play strong expectations with the national press, but are raising alarm bells locally.

I saw on Capitol Fax that he's already sent out, five? six now? GOTV emails pleading with people to vote. And we still have hours before polls close. His robocalls also sound pretty desperate. One is a "Republican Voter Alert" with a siren blaring, and another is from Newt Gingrich because why not.

And that is *the* fear for the Rauner campaign. Either that suburban/cook county Republicans decide to vote in the Democratic primary for various reasons or more exciting contests, or that they just stay home. And if a majority of votes in the Republican primary come from outside of Chicago, that could spell very bad news for him.

[new_patomic]

I mean... favored? Yeah for sure.

But guaranteed? You just have look at how Rauner and his campaign have been acting to see why that's not true.

[new_patomic]

So it’s possible Kennedy wins?

Yes.

Pritzker is still the favorite. But there's a lot of (an increasing amount of?) undecideds in the race. And it wouldn't be out of the question that they default to Kennedy in the voting booth.

[new_patomic]

Those are horrifically weak early vote numbers for Rauner.

[new_patomic]

With 55% in lake there are roughly only 13K votes.

Versus 43K total in 2014.

Republican turnout is DOWN.

[new_patomic]

I don't understand whats happening

[new_patomic]

Berrios is tied.

[new_patomic]

City of Chicago:
Bruce Rauner & Evelyn Sanguinetti 11,258 52.84 %
Jeanne Ives & Rich Morthland 10,048 47.16 %

Suburban Cook County:
Bruce Rauner & Evelyn Sanguinetti 38,738 54.11%
Jeanne Ives & Rich Morthland 32,848 45.89%

[new_patomic]

Ives is going to lose this because she didn't manage to actually win Downstate.

Who could have predicted this.

[new_patomic]

Can I just say how hilarious it is that Quinn thought he could stage a political comeback with the AG race?

He still has a chance, I'd say.

His percentage has slowly been inching up and he's doing a lot better downstate.

Though hopefully this is the final nail in the Peoples Pat's Coffin.

[new_patomic]

If Ives actually got the margins we were expecting downstate she would be winning right now.

[new_patomic]

I wonder if in the end Ives derogatory ad ultimately did her more damage than benefit.

[new_patomic]

What was the dynamic of the 2014 Republican primary?  Rauner got crushed in many downstate areas in 2014 by Dillard that Rauner beat Ives this year.  And Dillard was a Dupage legislator just as Ives was.  Was Dillard perceived as being to the left of  Rauner?

I'm not totally sure, exactly.

I want to say a lot of the downstate support for Dillard was sort of just by default. Dillard was relatively well known thanks to past bids and the other candidates including failed 2010 nominee Brady and Rutherford, who had just got accused of sexual misconduct by a male aide. And there wasn't much grass roots movement behind Rauner who was some rich outsider from the Chicago area, and thus didn't connect with a lot of the state.

On the other hand come 2018 Rauner is now the incumbent Governor and is running an anti-Madigan/Springfield campaign. While Ives, a little known state senator from the suburbs, pretty much spent all of her time and money in the Chicago area. So downstate probably came down to name recognition, more than anything.  

[new_patomic]

NPR: Rauner, If Asked, Would Deploy Illinois National Guard To Mexican Border

Capitol Fax: Poll finds strong support for gun dealer licensing in swing districts

Things are going great in Rauner-land this week.

[new_patomic]

Rauner's desperate has really been showing.

[new_patomic]

It's not like Republicans have fixed IL. Rauner may be a WOKE social moderate, but he did an effing godawful job managing the state. He's easily one of the worst governors in America. You can blame Madigan all you want, and I dislike Madigan too, but you look like a pathetic leader by 24/7 complaining about Madigan. Rauner didn't fix the budget crisis. He is a weak, ineffectual leader and will lose by 15-20% against an awful, sleazy democratic candidate this November.

He is bottom 5 worst governors in America. Almost as bad as Malloy and Fallin. Total loser.

But remember! Even though he's the incumbent, he's not in charge.

All he has in terms of power are flannel shirts, duct tape, and a motorcycle.  

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/nbcchicago/status/1042919957808508928

[new_patomic]

Kash Jackson is most famous for missing out on his child support payments.

At least McCann can represent the Downstate Voice.

[new_patomic]

Pritzker has his toilet fraud, Rauner has his disease outbreak

Rauner’s Office Contributed To Delay In Quincy Legionnaires' Notice

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[new_patomic]

As if Pritzker weren’t DISGUSTING enough already.  He will be in jail by the end of his term, or shortly after it.  This man is more corrupt than the average Cook County hack, which says a lot.  There are a lot of bad things to say about Rauner, but calling him corrupt is really, really reaching. If he was more corrupt he might have actually accomplished some things.  Sadly he is not corrupt.

Err.

I mean this seems pretty standard as far as cook county is concerned.

[new_patomic]

Attorney General Madigan Opens Criminal Probe Into Rauner Administration’s Response To Quincy Legionnaires' Crisis


Good.

[new_patomic]

Most predictable endorsement ever

Tribune gonna Tribune.

[new_patomic]

The Tribune has been acting as a far-left rag for the last few years.

How?

[new_patomic]

In debate with J.B. Pritzker, Gov. Bruce Rauner says illegal immigration contributes to Chicago gun violence


He's really going hard after those McCann votes.