2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[LimoLiberal]

Arizona is 60% Maricopa and Maricopa is one big suburb. Given everything we know about shifts in the Trump era it was going to go for Biden, people are just too afraid to definitively call it given its history.

[LimoLiberal]

TargetSmart being posted by rookie posters every 2 pages dissuades me from ever visiting this thread.

[LimoLiberal]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

[LimoLiberal]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

How many votes are Democrats adding daily in Clark/NV as a whole through VBM?

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321608439689211904

definitely bad for Dems, or at least that's the tone he'll have

[LimoLiberal]

This is a Dem mapper and analyst who knows his stuff about Florida. He does not sound optimistic.

It's incredible how so many Democrats here and in other spaces have just wish-casted away Biden's massive issues with Cubans (and other Hispanic ethnic groups!) in S Florida. I was ridiculed yesterday for suggesting there will be districts in M-D where Biden does 15 points worse than Clinton. Meanwhile, in this thread, you have numerous Florida politicos stating that all internal data has Biden doing not just worse than Clinton, as has been obvious for two years, but worse than Obama in 2012 and Desantis/Scott in 2018.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321993217638846466

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1321996630439137280

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal LimoLiberaling I see.

When Debbie Mucarsel-Powell loses in FL-26 and Biden loses Florida by 50,000 votes after winning Miami-Dade by a margin of 50,000 less than HRC I'll bump this post.

[LimoLiberal]

I mean, didn't we learn our lesson from 2016 when the Hispanic vote was supposed to deliver FL to Hillary? Nope, turns out that white people are still in the majority and that persuading them can easily outweigh swings among minority groups. We could easily be seeing the same thing in reverse.

This is a valid point.

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

MIAMI — Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.

The NAACP is helping Wilson produce a video for the virtual church services that talks about the dual threats of coronavirus and not voting.

“There is not the turnout here [Miami] in the black community that I’ve seen in the past. I can speculate about the reasons, but the fact is it remains concerning,” said state Sen. Oscar Braynon, a Black Miami Democrat who held a get-out-the-vote event Wednesday with rapper Fat Joe Wednesday.

The share of vote cast by Black voters in the county is a point lower today than at this point in 2016, while the overall Black vote statewide is only negligibly higher, according to the Democratic data firm TargetSmart.

But in Rep. Wilson’s congressional district, there’s still worry. She knows many have voted by mail and therefore aren’t at the polls. Still, she would like to see more voters showing up at the polls before in-person early voting ends Sunday night.

“I’ve been going to the different polling places,” she said, “and you know, I never dreamed that Black people would be reticent at this point in Mr. Trump's administration about voting.”

[LimoLiberal]

Let's see what Souls to The polls do this Sunday, I wouldn't underestimate them

Has anyone considered how the pandemic will impact Souls to the Polls?

Are churches in Florida doing in person services?  I'd assume so given the politics down there but I'd also assume there are a lot fewer attendees.  

I saw something on twitter that even with churches that aren't meeting in person, many Black church groups will be going to vote together as they traditionally do.

[LimoLiberal]

There's too much focus on Miami IMO.  If you look at the senate map, Nelson didn't do as well in Miami yet came much closer statewide.  Biden seems to be headed much more for a Nelson outcome  He should try to replicate Nelson's map but do better among seniors and try to juice up black turnout.  That seems to be the winning strategy.  

I agree with this and Miami Hispanics in particular can move very differently than Hispanics in other areas (of course Hispanics are not a monolith). But the Democratic worry about Black turnout in that Politico article in is scarier, imo, because there's no reason that Miami-Dade Blacks would have different turnout than Florida Blacks, or even Blacks in the South as a whole.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322006684680785920

This chart single handily eased my mind on the matter. Those 3-3's are gonna vote! Either this weekend or Trump's attack on the mail scared them into voting on Election Day. Look how good Democrats are doing at getting infrequent voters to vote! Plus those NPA's 0-3's are amazing too.

But the 3/3s in that chart favor Republicans, although the 2/3s would more than make up for that margin.

[LimoLiberal]

I could see Biden winning GA before FL, but it’s very unlikely that Biden loses FL on a night when he’s winning NC and beating Trump by 8-9 points nationally. Not impossible, but people are reading way too much into early voting reports/anecdotal evidence.

Then again, any FL-related discussion/thread on here is like its own poor and very predictable melodrama.

But isn't this basically what happened in 2018?

[LimoLiberal]

Florida counties release stats of Election Day voters on Election Day, no? So we should get a pretty good read on how big the surge of Republicans is on Tuesday.

[LimoLiberal]

Either this fear is unfounded and Blacks and Hispanics vote more on Election Day, or their turnout does drop. There's really no way to know before November 3rd.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats lead in EV down to just 39K due to surging rural turnout, below 2016’s 45K and well below Ralston’s projected 55K that’s 2016 adjusted for population trends. The Democrats’ lead will likely grow as more mail-in ballots come in the next couple days.

[LimoLiberal]

Republicans surge to a 46,000 ballot lead in Maricopa.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1322998727758344192

[LimoLiberal]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

[LimoLiberal]

Have we ever gotten leaked early vote results before the polls closed?

Nothing credible.  If you see such reports before the polls close, I would take them with a LARGE grain of salt.

I do actually recall some Kentucky counties in 2019 releasing their early votes before 6 PM.

[LimoLiberal]

http://steveschale.com/

"So far, roughly 2 out of every 3 registered Florida Democratic and Republican voter has voted.  Honestly, there aren't that many more people left to vote.  In terms of actual voters - I suspect Democrats will go into Election Day (including today VBM) with a lead somewhere between 110-115K voters.  Republicans have about 150K more high propensity voters than do the Democrats left to vote.  Democrats have 150K or more low propensity voters to vote.  Where all that lands tomorrow is the difference between winning and losing....


So here are some things I am going to watch for tomorrow.

First - the "swing counties."  There were four:  Jefferson (rural North Florida), Monroe (The Conch Republic), St. Lucie (Palm Beach media market), Pinellas (St. Petersburg/Clearwater).  Beyond this, there are two counties that I suspect will flip if Biden wins:  Duval (Jacksonville), and Seminole (suburban Orlando). I will likely go look at Pinellas and Duval first - mostly because they both have a history of returning VBM/EV pretty quickly.  

Next: the "base counties" - I want to see how Dade is doing.  I don't expect Biden to hit Clinton levels, but I would like to see him hit margins around Obama 2012. I also want to see Broward next door. I think there is a decent chance Broward hits margins enough to make up any loss from Clinton in Dade. Palm Beach is usually slow to report - but they have changed some things up, so hopefully we will get an early read there."

He hasn't really said anything insightful other than above. Seems like he's clueless how Florida will go this year.  

It all depends on how much Democrats will turn out tomorrow to reduce Republican advantage.

Schale predicted the major statewide races in Florida in 2014, 2016, and 2018 would all go to the Democrats. Either he is FINALLY being analytical and cautious, or he's seeing bad numbers.

To be fair, his predictions were only off by ~1 point.

[LimoLiberal]

30,000 more absentee ballots in Wake County today. Probably good for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/1323413029053173760

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/AndrewBond3/status/1323436790351474688

Won't Election Day flip this though? Or am I paranoid?