State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[LimoLiberal]

Polls closed in Missouri SD-17.

[LimoLiberal]

You gotta link the source for this...

[LimoLiberal]

Unless all the precincts reported are the most democratic in the district, Corlew (R) is f**ked.

[LimoLiberal]

6 more precincts reported. Arthur won them 1075-695. Her 61-39 lead maintains with 27/61 precincts in.

[LimoLiberal]

9 more precincts came in, and Arthur (D) won those 2477-1701. With 36/61 precincts reporting, Arthur's lead holds steady at 61-39.

[LimoLiberal]

Another 10 more precincts came in, and Arthur (D) won those 2981-2060. Lead narrows marginally to 60-40 with 46/61 precincts reported. Call can be made.

[LimoLiberal]

Rep. Lauren Arthur had massive facebook enthusiasm and the DLCC invested rather significantly here as well. She was a great candidate who had a great win.

[LimoLiberal]

DLCC director saying they are "all in to win" for the two Wisconsin specials next week. Suggests to me they think they can win both.

https://twitter.com/JessicaPost/status/1004193554015518720

[LimoLiberal]

Humiliating loss for California Democrats incoming -->

Shall Josh Newman be recalled (removed) from the office of State Sentator, District 29?
Completed Precincts: 0 of 369
Vote Count   Percentage
Yes   21,128   62.1%
No   12,900   37.9%

[LimoLiberal]

I'm optimistic on the two Wisconsin specials next Tuesday. Both democratic candidates have decent facebook enthusiasm, and the DLCC is getting heavily involved. Also saw an article indicating outside groups are already putting tens of thousands in SD-01 in favor of Frostman (D).

[LimoLiberal]

Bagel is morphing into LL's sidekick.

LOL, whenever someone is not 100% DEMOCRATIC BLUE WAVE and SAFE LIKELY D they become my sidekick. 

[LimoLiberal]

Tomorrow - Wisconsin SD-01 and AD-42

My predictions:
Democrats lose SD-01 47-53
Democrats lose AD-42 44-56

[LimoLiberal]

Posting my analysis here:

AD-42
Groves-Lloyd (D) - 832 likes
Plumer (R) - 693 likes
54-40 Trump, Dallet won by <1

This seat in a mishmash of areas north of Madison is historically Republican. The incumbent won reelection 59-41 in 2016, which isn't too impressive considering how the district voted in the presidential race. As you can see, the facebook enthusiasm is about the same for each candidate, so that metric is a wash. Groves-Lloyd is from Columbia county, which has the largest amount of votes in the district. Coincidentally, Plumer is from the exact same town as GL so Columbia county will be the battleground. Lloyds-Grove needs to keep her margins down in Fond-du-Lac and Dodge and do well in the Dane portions of the district. Plumer received the endorsement of the Wisconsin State Journal, giving him an extra boost.

Scandals: Plumer was cited for hitting his daughter in the 90s, GL deleted tweets saying mean things about Republicans and endorsing the DSA. Should be a wash in that metric.

Money: More outside spending for Plumer (80K to 30K), ads running on TV for him according to Facebook. But GL has outraised Plumer 300K to 185K (Holy sh*t that's a lot for a state legislative special)

Prediction: Plumer wins 54-46
Republican tradition holds strong, and the late newspaper endorsement pushes Plumer to the top.

SD-01
Frostman (D) - 1696
Rep. André Jacque (R) - Doesn't have a campaign facebook page but seems decently popular on his personal facebook in terms of individual post likes and shares
56-38 Trump, Dallet+7

This seat encompasses the Door peninsula and is focused on the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Calumet and Door. Hard to calculate facebook enthusiasm, so I'll just ignore that metric. Jacque represents 1/3 of this senate seat in AD-02, so he needs to rack up votes in the portion Brown and Manitowoc counties that he represents. In 2016 he faced an independent, but in 2012 he only won reelection 58-42 in AD-02. Trump won the assembly seat 59-36 (5 points more republican than the district as a whole), so he needs to stay around the 2012 level as a minimum to keep himself in contention. Frostman is the head of the Door county economic council, so he needs to absolutely crush Jacque in Door county, which I expect he will easily win. The question is the margin, not who wins and loses each county. Frostman also needs to perform well in the portions of Brown and Outagamie counties that are not in AD-02, where Hillary did better than in the district as a whole. Overall, there are several plausible paths to victory for each candidate.

Scandals: None really, though Jacque is considered one of the most conservative members of the assembly.

Fundraising: Frostman is favored in outside spending (150K to 80K) and in fundraising (170K to 90K).

Prediction: Jacque wins 52-48
This seat really liked Trump, and I'll expect voters there are going to be invigorated by the images of Trump winning in diplomacy with South Korea. Frostman seems to be running a good campaign, but it won't be enough.

[LimoLiberal]

Candidate
Votes
Percent
Caleb Frostman
11,545
52%
Andre Jacque
10,540
48%
Precincts Reporting: 71 of 93
Percent Reporting: 76%

All depends on Outagamie county. Clinton only lost it 40-54 in SD-01. Frostman needs to do well (break even) to keep the 1000 vote cushion from Door.

Also, these tweets seem relevant:

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1006713930708905984

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1006714957063491584

[LimoLiberal]

HUGE for Frostman (D). I think he's the favorite now to win this race. Nets 300 votes from Outagamie, with a little bit of Manitowoc, a good chunk of Brown and some Calumet remaining. 1300 vote cushion.

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1006715934487150594

[LimoLiberal]

Bye Atlas! (I'm mod locked anyways, but I said on discord I would leave Atlas for three days for each special election pickup in Wisconsin)

Frostman (D) ran a stellar campaign. Congrats. Blue wave is rearing its head in Wisconsin.

[LimoLiberal]

Flores is going to win.

[LimoLiberal]

Flores is going to win.

Of course you think he's going to.

Well, Flores is up 50.3 - 49.7 with all of the early vote in, and early vote is the most favorable to Democrats in Texas. Disastrous result for Democrats incoming.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1042206440369340417

Trump won the Medina county portion of SD-19 70-27.

Devastating.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/1042207072610385922

[LimoLiberal]

Gallego up by THREE with eight precincts reporting.

No, that's the early vote only. Look at the rightmost columns:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Senator, District 19               
Peter P. (Pete) Flores   REP   9,893   49.99%   10,109   50.53%
Pete Gallego   DEM   9,896   50.00%   9,896   49.46%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      19,789      20,005   
Precincts Reported      8   of   339 Precincts      2.36%

Wow. Republicans are going to flip a Clinton +11 SD in Texas. Blue wave?

[LimoLiberal]

Gallego up by THREE with eight precincts reporting.

No, that's the early vote only. Look at the rightmost columns:


RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Senator, District 19               
Peter P. (Pete) Flores   REP   9,893   49.99%   10,109   50.53%
Pete Gallego   DEM   9,896   50.00%   9,896   49.46%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      19,789      20,005   
Precincts Reported      8   of   339 Precincts      2.36%

Wow. Republicans are going to flip a Clinton +11 SD in Texas. Blue wave?

Lmao @ using one special election to say "BLUE WAVE DEAD"

Also we're jumping to conclusions with literally two percent of the vote in. Star Analysis Limo, really.

A prominent GOP strategist has called the race for Flores. It's over, blue wave believers.

[LimoLiberal]

No blue wave tonight.

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/1042223807782703109

[LimoLiberal]

The evidence is mounting, and it ain't pretty:


1. TX-23 polls show Hurd easily winning and Latino turnout weak.
2. SD-19 special elections shows swings to Republicans in heavily Latino areas.
3. Polls/primaries in CA-21, CA-39, CA-25, FL-26, and FL-27 all show Democrats underperforming Hillary numbers - by a lot.
4. New Nevada polls show Democrats, Arizona Senate race has become very tight after Sinema seemed to have a clear lead for months.
5. Ted Cruz is surging in Texas.

The blue wave will be irrelevant in Hispanic heavy areas. Thus, I am changing my rating of the House from Lean D (where I have had it for about a month) to Lean R. Once sure pickups, like TX-23, CA-25, CA-39, and FL-27 look different and democratic candidates are even struggling in sunbelt districts with a small minority population like TX-07 and AR-02.

The blue wave is over.

[LimoLiberal]

Lol. There's 5 republicans and 1 democrat in the georgia race. The democrats is currently receiving 4.77% of the vote. White rural america at its finest!