NJ-11: Frelinghuysen retiring

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/HerbNJDC/status/958012727758413825

Lean R > Tossup

Mike Sherrill is one of the best recruits of the cycle.

[LimoLiberal]

I’m really perplexed why these Republicans are all retiring, considering that this is probably going to be a nuetral cycle.

irony is dead

[LimoLiberal]

[LimoLiberal]

Hello Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ).

I think this hurts Sherrill's chances. She was a slam-dunk against Frelinghuysen, the definition of a weak incumbent. If someone like Jay Webber (i.e. a conventional, popular Republican) jumps in, she might have a bigger fight.

This is the congressional district of Trump International Golf Course in Bedminster.

That's Lance's district (the seventh).

The most annoying people on the internet are the moderate GOP #nevertrumpers who like electoral politics and try to spin every development into a "win" for the GOP. I saw at least three takes online saying Issa and Royce retiring was actually a boon for the GOP because they were disliked or something...

If an incumbent without a scandal is retiring, their district becomes more competitive. That's how it works.

[LimoLiberal]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

[LimoLiberal]

He could win but this environment will probably be too tough for him

I actually don't think it's that hard for a Republican to win in a NJ-11 type district with a D+5/6 generic ballot.

I'm not too confident with these seats as well. NJ Republicans didn't get wiped out in 2008, and while there are some open seats this time, I don't think it's a given. What does make me feel better about it is that Democrats did pretty well in the popular vote for Assembly races last year - better than NJ US House Republicans did in 2008, so maybe there is some hope.

The current positioning of the New Jersey Republican incumbents is okay, if precarious. The tax bill, although harmful to their districts, doesn't seem to be inspiring massive backlash or anger either way. And the New Jersey Republicans as a whole have been probably the most moderate republican delegation this congress. Of course, if the environment lurches left (say, D+10) you can say goodbye to NJ-11, Lance, and either MacArthur or Smith. NJ-2 is gone even if it was a republican-leaning year, lol.