Boring is Back

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the World- French and Election Heats Up, Australian Labor prevails, South Korea reelects Democrats


Sources: Wikipedia

As the French prepare to head to the polls and elect a new President- or reelect an old one- next month, other major elections made global impact in March.

At the beginning of March, in the 6th, the Governor of Gyeonggi Province Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's candidate who ran as a progressive, transformative and sometimes-populist candidate, was chosen as South Korea's next President, replacing the term-limited Moon Jae-in from the same party, despite the latter's unpopularity. Lee defeated the nominee of the People Power Party, the newest united conservative party in the country, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl.

South Korean 2022 Presidential Election (Results):
Governor Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party)- 47.3% ✓
Fmr. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (People Power Party)- 43.8%
National Assemblywoman Sim Sang-jung (Justice Party)- 4.6%
Fmr. National Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo (People Party)- 3.1%
Others- 1.2%

Later in the month, in March 19th, Australia held its own election, and it resulted in the Labor Party coming back to power for the first time since 2010. This was attributed to the Liberal-National Coalition's Prime Minister Scott Morrison's mishandling of the covid-19 epidemic, as well as a competent campaign by Labor's Anthony Albanese. The new Prime Minister, a former Deputy Prime Minister and Cabinet Minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, was likened by many to Olaf Scholz in Germany and Joe Biden in the United States- all veteran politicians with wide experience deemed by some as boring, but able to succeed in a country desperate for a safe hand. Albanese, however, is aligned with the Labor left and promised during the campaign to take Austalia in a much more progressive direction.

Australian 2022 House of Representatives Federal Election (Results- First Round):
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 39.7% (93 Seats)
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 37.5% (52 Seats)
Green Party (Adam Bandt)- 13.2% (1 Seat)
Others- 9.6% (5 Seats)

Australian 2022 House of Representatives Federal Election (Results- First Round):
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 55.3% (93 Seats) ✓
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 44.7% (52 Seats)

With a majority in the House of Representatives and support from the Greens in the Senate, Albanese started his first term with a strong mandate.

With the elections of Lee and Albanese, the global center-left got a further boost, and what seemed to be a narrative of "resurgence" for traditional center-left parties got further boost.

However, the biggest test for that so-called trend would come from France. President Emmanuel Macron, still very much favoured for reelection, remained the strongest candidate in the first round through the year, but the situation below him on the graph was much more volatile. At first, the surge of far-right journalist Eric Zemmour brought the traditional far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, to the defensive as she struggled to keep her previously assured place in the second round. While Zemmour's initial surge, that culminated in leading Le Pen, waned somehow, the two remained locked in a close battle for prominence. Xavier Bertrand, the candidate of the right-wing Les Republicains party, hoping to take advantage of the split, seemeed to be mostly harmed by Zemmour.

Broken up and in pieces, the center-left candidates hoped to get back into relevance, but for a long time they couldn't reach an agreement. Anne Hidalgo of the Socialists, Yannick Jadot of the Ecologists, the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon, the independent Socialist Arnaud Montebourg and the Communist Roussel all ran on a left-wing lane.

But by February 2022, the center-left field started to get leaner. Following a successful debate, Jadot experienced a surge in support, and Hidalgo's weak polling numbers convinced her and the PS leadership that the best chance would be a reverse of their 2017 deal- Hidalgo dropped out and endorsed the Green Party's Jadot, who promised to appoint the Socialist Party's First Secretary, Olivier Faure, as Prime Minister if elected President. The PS infraustracture lined up behind Jadot and the Ecologists, and Hidalgo who returned to her job as Mayor of Paris campaigned for him based on their shared environmentalist values. Montebourg dropped out next, endorsing Jadot, and Roussel did too, though he didn't make an outright endorsement.

Melenchon, the fourth place finisher of the 2017 election, repeatedly said he would not drop out for anyone. But a string of strange, conspirational and antisemitic statements lead to a drop in support for him, and the messege that Jadot is the chief left-wing candidate caused many who supported Melenchon to go for Jadot in an attempt to strengthen him. In that situation, Jadot's polling numbers surged, and some polls started showing him threatening to get into the second round.

As the final weeks of the election approach,

2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 26%
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 20%
MEP Yannik Jadot (EELV\PS)- 17%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 14%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (LR)- 13%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 4%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 4%

Meanwhile, Hungary is also facing in a few weeks its closest election in recent years, with a united opposition ready to fight the illiberal Prime Minister Orban in a first-past-the-post system that was supposed to favour Orban's Fidesz. The opposition's candidate, Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, ran a strong campaign against Orban and though the polls are hard to trust here, have been gaining in the polls.

2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Polling)
DK-Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-LMP-Momentum-MMM (Gergely Karácsony)- 47%
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 44%
Our Homeland (László Toroczkai)- 4%
Two Tailed Dog Party (Gergely Kovács)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 5%

In Israel, despite constant disagreements between the very ideologically different parts of a government that spans from the right-wing Home Minister Ayelet Shaked and the left-wing Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg, the coalition passed a budget for the years 2021-2022 and continued working. There was loud opposition from Likud and its partners in the right-wing opposition, coupled with increasingly deranged conspiracy theories about former Bibi allies turned vital members of the government such as Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar. But that loud opposition, and the presence of Benjamin Netanyahu whose trial dragged on, seemed to only serve as glue for the coalition.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 31 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 20 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 11 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 9 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 8 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 6 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 0 Seats

[America Needs R'hllor]

In France and Hungary, global far-right dealt a grievous blow


Source: Wikipedia

PARIS - In a shock that sent jolts all over Europe, polls got the first round of France's Presidential election dead wrong. The far right, widely considered on the rise, was locked out of the second round- both because of much less support than anticipated and a right-wing vote split.

Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent President, easily took the first place in the first round. Coming second was, surprisingly, Ecologist candidate Yannick Jadot, who had the support of the Socialist and Communist parties as well. With far-left candidate Melenchon collapsing in support, Jadot had nearly-unified support from the left pole. Meanwhile, on the right, the Republicans nominated right-wing candidate Xavier Bertrand, while TV personality Eric Zemmour and National Front Leader Marine Le Pen ran as competing far-right candidates. This split on the right allowed Jadot to snatch the second round from Le Pen, the big hope of the European far-right. Macron is considered heavily favoured in the second round- in a country where left-wing candidates took just a bit over 20%, right-wing and centrist voters are expected to back him and give him a large margin in the second round. However, running against someone other than Le Pen might be unpredictable.

2022 French Presidential Election First Round (Results)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 27.2% ✓
MEP Yannick Jadot (EELV\PS)- 18.7% ✓
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 17.8%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (LR)- 15.6%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 11.2%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 3.4%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2.9%
Others- 3.2%

Also in April, an election was held in Hungary with an arguably even more surprising result- the defeat of the illiberal Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party against a wide coalition of opposition parties from left to right. With almost no votes wasted- and about a half of them by the far-right party Our Homeland- the opposition was able to defeat Fidesz candidates in many constituencies, especially urban and medium-size towns, and do well on the list election as well. All in all, The opposition ended up beating Orban's party by over 1%, and overperforming in the seat count (meaning that Orban's purposefully unfair system backfired).

2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Results)
DK-Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-LMP-Momentum-MMM (Gergely Karácsony)- 47.5% (112 Seats) ✓
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 46.2% (87 Seats)
Our Homeland (László Toroczkai)- 3.2% (0 Seats)
Two Tailed Dog Party (Gergely Kovács)- 1.4% (0 Seats)
Others/Undecided- 1.7%

Gergely Karácsony, the Mayor of Budapest, was supposed to become the new Prime Minister now, after a quick negotiation between the opposition parties. However, Viktor Orban declared that the election's were "fraudulent" and blamed foreign interference from Jewish billionaire George Soros, the Biden administration and the European Union for "rigging it" against him. European leaders including President Macron and Chancellor Scholz declared that they "strongly urge Prime Minister Orban to respect the people's will" and accused him of "fabricating a conspiracy theory to explain his loss". In the end, after nearly reaching a confrontation with the European powers, Orban ceded power and Karacsony became the new Hungarian Prime Minister.

[America Needs R'hllor]

As Midterms Approach, Biden Popularity on the Rise


Source: Wikipedia

WILMINGTON - As the United States gears up for fateful midterm elections, the race is considered close and hard, with competing trends fighting against each other. On the one hand, midterm elections usually go bad for the incumbent party, and the Republicans seem very motivated to vote. On the other hand, the new, very educated Democratic base is more likely to turn out on midterms, and President Biden's approval ratings has been steadily climbing back and recently eclipsed 50% again, after falling for a while due to an inability to pass a healthcare bill.

With the winds against him, many were surprised at Biden's ability to recover and remain popular, some even calling him "Teflon Joe". The Republican Party constantly tried to create new culture wars and take over the narrative, including things like "cancel culture", "critical race theory" and more, but it did not seem to impact polls. At the same time, the media seemed to constantly try to create another crisis to create more panic, but fear-mongering over a supply chain issue creating shortages and an increasing inflation proved overblown and the Biden administration handled them competently.

As the midterm gets increasingly spirited, Democrats tout Biden's achievements in the covid-19 recovery bill and the Build Back Better bill, and bring up the specter of Donald Trump, who continues to lie about a fraudulent 2020 election and brings fear to Republican leaders who worry it might hurt turnout. Republicans light up culture wars and attack Biden with increasing urgency- after he stuttered in a recent speech and nearly fell asleep in an event a day later, the newest narrative turned back to Biden's health, with Republicans such as Tucker Carlson, Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Madison Cawthorn saying the 25th amendment should be invoked to remove an unfit President. Media headlines that treated it as a legitimate debate, even bringing body language and medical experts to evaluate Biden's behavior, received strong pushback from Democrats, and polls show that both parties are at an all-time low trust in the media.

Despite Biden's approvals, Republicans still go into the midterms fairly confident in taking back a majority, even if narrow, in both houses of Congress. In the Senate, where they need to take just two seats to win a majority, Republicans are betting on a path of flipping seats in Georgia and Nevada, while keeping the hypercompetitive seats of Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The last stretch of campaigning is here, and soon we will know the path America takes after electing Biden to the Presidency in 2020.

Polling in Key Races

Arizona 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Mark Kelly (I)- 49.7%
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 45.3%
Others/Unsure- 5.0%

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs- 48.1%
TV Anchor Kari Lake- 44.5%
Others/Unsure- 7.4%

Florida 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 49.6%
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 46.2%
Others/Unsure- 4.2%

Florida 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Ron DeSantis (I)- 48.3%
U.S. Representative Charlie Crist- 47.7%
Others/Unsure- 4.0%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 48.5%
Football player Herschel Walker- 46.0%
Others/Unsure- 5.5%

Georgia 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Fmr. State Representative Stacy Abrams- 47.9%
Governor Brian Kemp (I)- 47.0%
Others/Unsure- 5.1%

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Attorney General Maura Healey- 67.4%
Fmr. State Representative Geoff Diehl- 25.8%
Others/Unsure- 6.8%

Michigan 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (I)- 49.3%
Fmr. Police Chief James Craig- 46.3%
Others/Unsure- 4.4%

Minnesota 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Tim Walz (I)- 54.3%
Businessman Mike Lindell- 41.9%
Others/Unsure- 3.8%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 48.1%
Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (I)- 46.2%
Others/Unsure- 5.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 53.9%
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 41.2%
Others/Unsure- 4.9%

New Hampshire 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte- 49.2%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter- 48.9%
Others/Unsure- 1.9%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.7%
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 47.4%
Others/Unsure- 4.9%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2%
Veteran Sean Parnell- 46.1%
Others/Unsure- 3.7%

Pennsylvania 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Attorney General Josh Shapiro- 51.8%
State Senator Doug Mastriano- 43.9%
Others/Unsure- 4.3%

Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Greg Abbott (I)- 43.4%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke- 41.8%
Actor Matthew McConaughey- 10.8%
Others/Unsure- 4.0%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 48.8%
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 46.9%
Others/Unsure- 4.3%

Wisconsin 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Tony Evers (I)- 48.3%
State Senator Chris Kapenga- 47.1%
Others/Unsure- 4.6%


Final Ratings Map for Senate (Note: should be 51 D-49 R)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Note: this isn't meant to be a prediction. Politics suck but I'm imagining a better reality in this TL.

Eventually when I'm done with this TL I'll write something more balanced and dramatic though so stay tuned. Eventually

[America Needs R'hllor]

Macron reelected; Bolsonaro defeated


Source: Wikipedia, Flickr

PARIS - In France, the election runoff gave an easy victory for incumbent President Macron over Yannick Jadot, the center-left candidate endorsed by the Ecologists and Socialists. After the shocking exclusion of the right from the second round, far-right candidates Le Pen and Zemmour claimed election fraud and refused to endorse anyone, with Le Pen telling her voters to "oppose the radical, pro-immigrant left-wing agenda" which hinted at a preference for Macron, and Zemmour telling his supporters to boycott the election. However, LR candidate Xavier Bertrand endorsed Macron, as did Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, while Melenchon endorsed Jadot.

With support from the center, the center-right and much of the far-right, Macron was able to cruise to victory, though it was closer than expected.

2022 French Presidential Election Second Round (Results)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 55.1% ✓
MEP Yannick Jadot (EELV\PS)- 44.9%

2022 remained a bad year for the global populist right, as Brazil gave it another crushing defeat. At the end of October, the second round was held for its Presidential election. There, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right extemist who became a symbol for environmentally destructive policy, negligent and anti-vaccine covid-19 policy and anti-LGBT rhetoric, and who had an enthusiastic endorsement from former President Donald Trump, was easily defeated by his rival, former President Lula da Silva from the social democratic Workers' Party. Once removed from office, Bolsonaro is expected to be tried for negligent handling of the coronavirus epidemic and the Amazon forests.

2022 Brazilian Presidential Election (Results)
Fmr. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)- 59.3% ✓
President Jair Bolsonaro (APB)- 40.7%

Next year, two other countries are expected to hold elections that will be a great test on illiberal, authoritarian powers.

In Turkey, President Erdogan has seen his fourtune turn sour in public opinion as the economy continued to decline, and is currently trailing in the polls against several potential challengers. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is currently expected to be the main opposition CHP's candidate against him, and his moderate, anti-corruption message and experience makes him a formidable challenger.

2023 Turkish Presidential Election (Polling)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP)- 39.2%
Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP)- 37.9%
Selahattin Demirtaş (HDP)- 8.5%
Meral Akşener (İYİ)- 7.3%
Ali Babacan (DEVA)-2.8%
MP(Muharrem İnce)- 1.1%
Others/Undecided- 3.2%

In Poland, meanwhile, Donald Tusk's return to local politics as leader of KO, the Civic Coalition, signaled hope for the pro-democratic opposition. With the success of Hungary's opposition before their eyes, the Polish opposition parties are increasingly eyeing a union between some of their four main powers- Tusk's center-right Civic Coalition, Szymon Hołownia's new centrist Poland 2050 party, the center-left Lewica, and the Christian Democratic Polish Union, lead by PSL. For now, though, polls show the separate opposition trailing the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, an illiberal right-wing party that took steps to weaken the judiciary and European law.

2023 Polish Parliamentary Election (Polling)
Law and Justice (Jarosław Kaczyński)- 34.7%
Civic Coalition (Donald Tusk)- 25.3%
Poland 2050 (Szymon Hołownia)- 13.8%
Lewica (Włodzimierz Czarzasty)- 8.5%
Confederation (Krzysztof Bosak)- 7.7%
Polish Coalition (Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz)- 4.1%
Kukiz'15 (Paweł Kukiz)- 1.8%
Agreement (Jarosław Gowin)- 0.6%
Others/Undecided- 3.5%

Meanwhile, the Israeli big-tent coalition continued working. The ideological differences between the different coalition partners constantly flared, but they were handled by the coalition's captains, Prime Minister Bennet and Foreign Minister Lapid, and never threatened to actually bring down the government. As the Netanyahu trial continued, the panic level around him increased- if the government outlived his trial's end, he might not even be able to challenge it. The Israeli public also seemed to get used to the strange government, and its popularity was in a steady rise- or at least, its unpopularity was steadily decreasing.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 32 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 19 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 7 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 6 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 4 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 4 Seats

[America Needs R'hllor]

2022 United States Midterm Elections


Source: Flickr

The 2022 United States midterm elections were held in November 8th, 2022. The final results took over two weeks to be finalized, as some close House of Representatives races took time to count and call. This election is considered today a turning point in the United State's political history, as an expected backlash against the Biden Administration like in most midterms historically resulted, instead, in a net positive for his party. This was considered by historians the first real rejection of Americans to the Reaganist Consensus of the past decades, and the beginning of the Bidenist Consensus.

In the Senate, Democrats gained two seats, while losing none. The closest races were in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and all went for the Democrats except for Wisconsin. The big story was the ability of Biden to keep and turn out his base of minority voters, including black voters and Hispanic voters who didn't swing left from the 2020 election but still remained fairly Democratic, and educated white voters, especially in suburbs, who continued trending sharply left.

In Nevada, where Republicans saw an opportunity, Democrats managed to save their incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, through strong support in Clark County with its population center of Las Vegas, and in the left-trending Washoe County. Despite Republican gainst among Hispanic voters, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt narrowly lost to Cortez Masto. Meanwhile, the open sets in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania went different ways, and much of it was considered due to candidate quality- Sean Parnell, the Trump-endorsed Republican in Pennsylvania who faced allegations of domestic abuse and was seen as an extremist, allowed Democrat Conor Lamb to get strong turnout from the base, and though the Trumpist base turned out too, Parnell couldn't convince any Biden voters to go on his side and turned off even some Trump 2020 voters. In Wisconson, despite Republcians nominating a Trump-endorsed candidate in Sean Duffy, he was a good enough candidate to take advantage of the midterm trends and defeat Democrat Mandela Burns.

North Carolina had the biggest upset of the night- candidate quality once again proved decisive as the state turned blue again and chose astronaut Joan Higginbotham as Senator over Lara Trump by a fairly safe margin, considered a painful rebuke to Trumpism. Georgia continued its quick trend left as well, choosing Rephael Warnock again over Trump friend Herschel Walker by a surprisingly wide margin- this was attributed both to a strong Democratic state party and a strong campaign by Warnock. In Arizona, a Trumpist candidate against spoiled his party's chances as Mike Kelly beat Andy Biggs without much hardship. New Hampshire, where the strongest possible Republican candidate Chris Sununu embarrassingly lost the primary, gave Democrat Maggie Hassan an easy victory, and in Colorado Michael Bennet won a landslide.

Republicans had other bright spots in Iowa and Florida, where Chuck Grassley and Marco Rubio won reelection by safe margins, and in Ohio, where Josh Mandel won despite a closer-than-expected race that stemmed from his extremist rhetoric.

In the House, the banning of gerrymandering lead to a scrambling for maps made by independent commissions. States that couldn't manage to assemble a commission in time had maps drawn by courts. Overall, despite commissions in states like Florida, California, New York and Texas not exactly escaping the partisanship of the state's local government, the maps were a lot more balanced accross the board, and as Republicans controlled gerrymandering in most states after a 2010 election victory, this allowed for a small Democratic net loss in the election in spite of a narrower general margin between Democrats and Republicans than in 2020. The Democratic caucus now numbered 223 in the House, five less than in 2021, and the Republican caucus was 212, five more than in 2021.

These failures were blamed by many GOP leaders on Trump- his great influence on recruitment of candidates, supporting much more extreme candidates who believed in election conspiracy theories,

Alabama 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 63.6% ✓
State Representative Christopher England- 35.8%
Others- 0.6%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (First Round):
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.8%
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 32.4%
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 28.4%
Mr. Dustin Darden- 2.4%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (Allocated):
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 58.5% ✓
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 41.5%

Arizona 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Kelly (I)- 51.7% ✓
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 47.3%
Others- 1.0%

Arkansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Boozman (I)- 67.9% ✓
Fmr. City Alderman Jack Foster- 30.7%
Others- 1.4%

California 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Alex Padilla (I)- 73.8% ✓
Fmr. State Assemblyman Jerome Horton- 26.2%

Colorado 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Michael Bennet (I)- 54.2% ✓
Olympian Eli Bremer- 42.5%
Others- 3.3%

Connecticut 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Richard Blumenthal (I)- 67.2% ✓
Businessman Robert Hyde- 30.2%
Others- 2.6%

Florida 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 50.4% ✓
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 43.9%
Others- 5.7%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 50.5% ✓
Football player Herschel Walker- 48.2%
Others- 1.3%

Hawaii 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Brian Schatz (I)- 72.7% ✓
Mr. Ron Curtis- 26.9%
Others- 0.4%

Idaho 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Crapo (I)- 66.2% ✓
Businesswoman Nancy Harris- 32.6%
Others- 1.2%

Illinois 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tammy Duckworth (I)- 56.2% ✓
Fmr. Officer Peggy Hubbard- 41.9%
Others- 1.9%

Indiana 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Todd Young (I)- 53.8% ✓
Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr.- 42.4%
Others- 3.8%

Iowa 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Grassley (I)- 54.2% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer- 45.2%
Others- 0.6%

Kansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Jerry Moran (I)- 57.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Mark Holland- 42.3%
Others- 0.5%

Kentucky 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rand Paul (I)- 59.7% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Charles Booker- 37.5%
Others- 2.8%

Louisisna 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Kennedy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Veteran Luke Mixon- 21.7%
Activist Gary Chambers- 14.4%
Others- 5.6%

Maryland 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chris Van Hollen (I)- 79.2% ✓
Activist Kim Klacik- 17.5%
Others- 3.3%

Missouri 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 52.7% ✓
Veteran Lucas Kunce- 45.7%
Others- 1.6%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (I)- 48.4% ✓
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 47.9%
Others- 3.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 52.8% ✓
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 45.9%
Others- 1.3%

New York 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Schumer (I)- 71.3% ✓
Businessman Antoine "Montaga" Tucker- 26.3%
Others- 2.4%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 49.5% ✓
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.6%
Others- 2.9%

North Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Hoeven (I)- 82.6% ✓
Businessman Michael Steele- 13.6%
Others- 3.8%

Ohio 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. Treasurer Josh Mandel- 49.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan- 48.0%
Others- 2.8%

Oklahoma 2022 Senate Election:
Senator James Lankford (I)- 61.3% ✓
Businessman Jason Bollinger- 35.5%
Others- 3.2%

Oregon 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Ron Wyden (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mrs. Jo Rae Perkins- 38.4%
Others- 3.3%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2% ✓
Veteran Sean Parnell- 48.0%
Others- 1.8%

South Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tim Scott (I)- 62.4% ✓
State Representative Krystle Matthews- 36.9%
Others- 0.7%

South Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Thune (I)- 67.5% ✓
State Senator Troy Heinert- 30.3%
Others- 2.2%

Utah 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Lee (I)- 51.8% ✓
Fmr. CIA Officer Evan McMullin- 43.5%
Others- 4.7%

Vermont 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Peter Welch- 67.0% ✓
Businessman Scott Milne- 31.6%
Others- 1.4%

Washington 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Patty Murray (I)- 61.6% ✓
Nurse Tiffany Smiley- 36.9%
Others- 1.5%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 49.5% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 48.6%
Others- 1.9%

Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 53 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 51 Seats
Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 47 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 47 Seats

[America Needs R'hllor]

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

1. This is not a prediction
2. Read the rest of the timeline for context

[America Needs R'hllor]

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

1. This is not a prediction
2. Read the rest of the timeline for context

Not saying it was a prediction, just noting that the scenario here now seems far-fetched IOTL.

Oh yeah, I agree. Boring is decidedly not back irl.

[America Needs R'hllor]

2022 United States Midterm Elections
Gubernatorial Races


Source: Wikipedia

Like in the Senate, Democrats could come out of the Gubernatorial midterms satisfied. With base turnout up from normal midterms, Demcorats took back two blue states where the popular Republican Governor was term limited (Maryland) and lost the primary (Massachusetts). In Arizona, a bad Republican candidate allowed a win for Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbbs, and in New Hampshire the removal of Chris Sununu as a factor got them another victory with Carol Shea Porter beating Kelly Ayotte. The closest race was in Georgia, where Stacey Abrams did not manage to triumph despite positive trends for her party across the state. And in Alaska, the new RCV system allowed former Governor Bill Walker to take out Mike Dunleavy. Another major win was that a trio of Midwestern Governors, Gretchen Whitmer, Tony Evers and Tim Walz, held on, some more narrow than others. Their only loss was in Kansas, still a strongly conservative state where Laura Kelly, despite keeping it close, couldn't hold on in a midterm for her party.

Alabama 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Kay Ivey (I)- 61.6% ✓
Activist Christopher Countryman- 37.3%
Others- 1.1%

Alaska 2022 Gubernatorial Election (First Round):
Governor Mike Dunleavy (I)- 45.9%
Fmr. Governor Bill Walker- 36.2%
Fmr. State Representative Les Gara- 15.1%
Mr. William "Billy" Toein- 2.8%

Alaska 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Allocated):
Fmr. Governor Bill Walker- 50.8% ✓
Governor Mike Dunleavy (I)- 49.2%

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs- 52.0% ✓
TV Anchor Kari Lake- 45.7%
Others- 2.3%

Arkansas 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Fmr. Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders- 56.7% ✓
Entrepreneur Supha Xayprasith-Mays- 33.2%
Missionary Ricky Dale Harrington Jr.- 9.3%
Others- 0.8%

California 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Gavin Newsome (I)- 63.2% ✓
Talkshow Host Larry Elder- 36.8%

Colorado 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Jared Polis (I)- 54.8% ✓
UC Regent Heidi Ganahl- 43.7%
Others- 1.5%

Connecticut 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Ned Lamont (I)- 52.9% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Themis Klarides- 45.0%
Others- 2.1%

Florida 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Ron DeSantis (I)- 51.8% ✓
U.S. Representative Charlie Crist- 47.2%
Others- 1.0%

Georgia 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Brian Kemp (I)- 50.1% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Stacey Abrams- 48.1%
Others- 1.8%

Hawaii 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa- 63.9% ✓
Martial Artist B.J. Penn- 35.8%
Others- 0.3%

Idaho 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Brad Little (I)- 60.7% ✓
Mayor Shelby Rognstad- 34.8%
Others- 4.5%

Illinois 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor J. B. Pritzker (I)- 54.2% ✓
State Senator Darren Bailey- 41.4%
Others- 4.4%

Iowa 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Kim Reynolds (I)- 53.8% ✓
State Representative Ras Smith- 44.4%
Others- 1.8%

Kansas 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Attorney General Derek Schmidt- 50.6% ✓
Governor Laura Kelly (I)- 46.2%
Others- 3.2%

Maine 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Janet Mills (I)- 47.9% ✓
Fmr. Governor Paul LePage- 45.8%
Others- 6.3%

Maryland 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Fmr. DNC Chair Tom Perez- 53.1% ✓
Fmr. RNC Chair Michael Steele- 45.2%
Others- 1.7%

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Attorney General Maura Healey- 61.7% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Geoff Diehl- 35.8%
Others- 2.5%

Michigan 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (I)- 49.7% ✓
Fmr. Police Chief James Craig- 49.0%
Others- 1.3%

Minnesota 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Tim Walz (I)- 55.7% ✓
Businessman Mike Lindell- 41.9%
Others- 2.4%

Nebraska 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Fmr. Governor Dave Heineman- 65.2% ✓
State Senator Carol Blood- 31.8%
Others- 3.0%

Nevada 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Steve Sisolak (I)- 48.3% ✓
Fmr. Senator Dean Heller- 46.9%
Others- 4.8%

New Hampshire 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Carol Shea Porter- 50.5% ✓
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte- 47.3%
Others- 2.2%

New Mexico 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham (I)- 54.9% ✓
Fmr. Weatherman Mark Ronchetti- 38.9%
Public Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn Jr.- 5.6%
Others- 0.6%

New York 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Kathy Hochul (I)- 62.7% ✓
U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin- 33.5%
Others- 3.8%

Ohio 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Mike DeWine (I)- 54.7% ✓
Mayor Nan Whaley- 42.8%
Others- 2.5%

Oklahoma 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Kevin Stitt (I)- 56.3% ✓
State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister- 41.4%
Others- 2.3%

Oregon 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Speaker Tina Kotek- 53.9% ✓
Dr. Bud Pierce- 35.2%
State Senator Betsy Johnson- 8.2%
Others- 2.7%

Pennsylvania 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Attorney General Josh Shapiro- 50.5% ✓
State Senator Doug Mastriano- 48.8%
Others- 0.7%

Rhode Island 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea- 55.7% ✓
State Representative Blake Filippi- 39.2%
Others- 5.1%

South Carolina 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Henry McMaster (I)- 53.6% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Joe Cunningham- 46.2%
Others- 0.2%

South Dakota 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Kristi Noem (I)- 58.4% ✓
State Senator Troy Heinert- 40.8%
Others- 0.8%

Tennessee 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Bill Lee (I)- 66.7% ✓
Dr. Jason Martin- 31.8%
Others- 1.5%

Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Greg Abbott (I)- 50.7% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke- 44.2%
Actor Matthew McConaughey (Withdrawn)- 3.8%
Others- 1.3%

Vermont 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Phil Scott (I)- 67.6% ✓
Fmr. State Senator Debbie Ingram- 28.8%
Others- 3.6%

Wisconsin 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Tony Evers (I)- 49.6% ✓
State Senator Chris Kapenga- 49.3%
Others- 1.1%

Wyoming 2022 Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Mark Gordon (I)- 70.8% ✓
Fmr. State Representative James Byrd- 26.9%
Others- 2.3%

Democratic Governorships- 27 ↑ (+3)
Republican Governorships- 22 ↓ (-4)
Independent Governorships- 1 ↑ (+1)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Kevin


Source: Wikipedia

"How did this happen?"

This is the question Kevin had to answer all day. Donors, activists, colleagues, all asked that same question. The real answer was that he had no f**king idea. Polls ahead of the election showed a small advantage for Democrats in the generic ballots, a narrowly positive approval for Biden and tight races for Senate in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. He figured they could take back the House with these numbers, and maybe keep it even in the Senate after the recruiting failures in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

But this? Losing North Carolina? Failing to take even Nevada, where polls were favourable? And the worst of all, failing to take the House! He was going to have to face an angry caucus as a minority leader. It is truly a depressing day when Brian Kemp is the biggest winner of his party.

The media tried to offer some explanation- the Democratic educated base was more high-turnout, the Republican base was depressed by Trump's continued claims that the election will be rigged, whatever. None of that made much sense, because the Democrats did well, relative to expectations, accross the board, even among non-educated white voters in some places. Was Biden just popular right now, with hefty legislative accomplishments, decreasing unemployment and the inflation and supply shortage crises easing just in time for the midterms? Kevin didn't know, and he honestly didn't have much time to think about it, because he was so busy trying to save his career.

Trump and most of the losing candidates he endorsed were already blasting the media with statements about a rigged election and calling on their followers to protest them. Democrats were enjoying their usual show of calling Trump and his party "dangerous and anti-democatic". Now they were also gloating about getting a "strong mandate from the people". On the other hand, the usual annoying types like Mitt Romney were telling everyone how this was a repudiation of Trump. Honestly, Kevin could see their logic- candidates like Sean Parnell, Kari Lake, Andy Biggs and Lara Trump herself all lost embarrassingly. But he had to keep the farce, considering the sentiments of the base.

Once again, the phone rang with questions from some media ghoul. "Do you accept that the results of the election are legitimate? Or do you agree with Trump that-"

"Look, Jake," Kevin said impatiently, "I- I don't know. This has to be looked into. On the surface, there are a lot of questions, a lot of legitimate questions-"

"Will you accept the results of the election?"

"I think that what we have to focus on is that Democatic tampering with election laws is what caused this lopsided result. They are the real ones suppressing Republican voters and threatening democracy."

"Ok, what about members of your party, including Larry Hogan and Lindsey Graham, who said that the results hint Americans like government spending and investment in the economy?"

"It's nonsense. Voters understand that these actions are repeating the grave mistakes we've made before electing Ronald Reagen in 1980, and that he fixed."

"Do you think that maybe the consensus created by Reagan is endangered in light of these results?"

"Absolutely not. Thank you Jake."

[America Needs R'hllor]

Will He or Won't He? Trump Freezes Anxious 2024 Primary Field


Source: Wikipedia

February 17th, 2023

MIAMI - With the 2022 Midterms over and a new, expanded Democratic Congress sworn in, the 2024 Presidential election is looming in the distance, like grey storm clouds. In 2019, Democrats already started announcing for the crowded 2020 Presidential Primary in January and February after the swearing-in of the new Congress, but Republicans in 2023 were not nearly this quick.

The reason for this wasn't a lack of enthusiasm but one man who froze the field- former President Donald Trump. Initially, the losing 2020 nominee as adamant that he'd seek the nomination again in 2024, and most potential Republican nominees made clear they won't run against him. But after the cold shower of a less-than-satisfactory election results for his party in 2022, and with President Biden's approvals rising, Trump stopped promising to run, and repeatedly said that he would "let you know soon", despite continuing to claim that he would be "the best President" if elected again. Though he furiously denied it, some in Trump's inner circle were claiming that he was scared of running against Biden, and wanted to see his decision before announcing. He did, however, believe he could easily beat Vice President Harris, and wanted to run again if it's against her in order to achieve another victory.

With Trump taking his time to decide, many Republicans were getting increasingly restless, and the first few candidates jumped in- in late January, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan became the first candidate in the race by forming an exploratory committee. He ended up announcing later in February, officially jumping in. Francis X. Suarez, the crypto-friendly, moderate Mayor of Miami, announced an exploratory committee in Febryary as well. The two candidates were both anti-Trump, and ran as quasi-primary challengers to the former President, but other candidates such as former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence were indicating that they could run against Trump as well. Without Trump, many other candidates were likely to run.

President Biden, meanwhile, was increasingly likely to run, and though some in the media were speculating he was trying to create an easy launching pad for Vice President Harris, his advisors continued saying that he has "all intentions to run". Sources also said that he was planning to announce soon. Biden was unlikely to face a substantial primary challenge.

President Joe Biden Approval (February 1st)
Approve- 52.3%
Disapprove- 44.1%
Unsure- 3.6%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (February 1st)
Disapprove- 48.2%
Approve- 44.9%
Unsure- 6.9%

2024 Democratic Presidential Primary - Biden Retires (Polling)
Vice President Kamala Harris- 34%
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg- 11%
U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez- 9%
Senator Elizabeth Warren- 7%
NYC Mayor Andrew Yang- 5%
Senator Amy Klobucher- 5%
Governor Kathy Hochul- 4%
Governor Gretchen Whitmer- 4%
Senator Cory Booker- 3%
Governor Colleen Hanabusa- 2%
Senator Michael Bennet- 2%
Fmr. State Representative Stacey Abrams- 2%
Others/Unsure- 12%

2024 Republican Presidential Primary - Trump Runs (Polling)
Fmr. President Donald Trump- 69%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence- 13%
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan- 4%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 3%
Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez- 2%
Others/Unsure- 9%

2024 Republican Presidential Primary - Trump Doesn't Run (Polling)
Governor Ron DeSantis- 21%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence- 19%
Governor Brian Kemp- 8%
Fmr. UN Ambassador Nicki Haley- 6%
Businessman Donald Trump Jr.- 5%
Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo- 5%
Businesswoman Ivanka Trump- 4%
Senator Ted Cruz- 4%
Senator Marco Rubio- 3%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 3%
Senator Josh Hawley- 2%
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan- 2%
Governor Greg Abbott- 2%
Governor Kristi Noem- 2%
Senator Tim Scott- 1%
Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez- 1%
Senator Rick Scott- 1%
U.S. Representative Elsie Stefanik- 1%
Fmr. Governor Chris Sununu- 0%
Senator Tom Cotton- 0%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Liz Cheney- 0%
Senator Joni Ernst- 0%
Others/Unsure- 10%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 50%
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL)- 44%
Others/Unsure- 6%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 51%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 39%
Others/Unsure- 10%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 51%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)- 42%
Others/Unsure- 7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wasn't Yang elected Mayor?

Woops true! Fixed, thanks

[America Needs R'hllor]

Biden officially announces reelection campaign


Source: Flickr

February 26th, 2023

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Confirming expectations and dispelling rumours, President Joe Biden has officially confirmed that he will be running for reelection in 2024, with Vice President Harris as his running mate. Biden confirmed it in a monthly press conference in the White House, and cited "more work to be done" and "very positive momentum" that he'd like to continue as reasons for running again. The Preisdent also dismissed questions about age and health concerns, saying he's feeling "fantastic". Biden also said that he'd be running on his accomplishments, including the American Recovery and Build Back Better Acts, the voting rights For the People Act, the record growth and jobs numbers, and foreign policy accomplishments such as the brokering of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022 and the signing of a new Iran Deal later in the year. Asked whether he'd begin campaigning, Biden stressed that it was not a "campaign kickoff rally" but rather a declaration of intentions, and that he was not ready to "devote precious time to campaigning" this early in the election season.

Biden is widely considered a popular incumbent who would be hard to defeat for a divided Republican Party, and pundits believe that the only causes for concern in his reelection campaign are health and potential Democratic overreach in Congress. Now that Biden had declared his intentions, the ball was in the court of his 2020 rival, former President Trump, who was still reportedly undecided.

World Health Organization says Tau variant might be the "beginning of the end" for the Coronavirus Pandemic


Source: Flickr

March 2nd, 2023

GENEVA - Cautious optimism was the message of the World Health Organization in a recent statement coming out of Geneva. Tau , the latest "Variant of Concern" that started spreading from Russia in mid 2022, was the first variant that managed to eclipse the earlier Omicron variant in transmittability. This was following three "Variants of Interest" named Pi (originating in Iran), Rho (originating in Chile) and Sigma (originating in the United States) that failed to meaningfully spread and "defeat" Omicron. However, Tau, which is comparable to many strains of flu, proved to be an even less severe variant than Omicron, with many (especially vaccinated) people not feeling any symptoms and very rare critical cases. Following an initial scare, the spread of Tau lead to the lifting of many restrictions, though masks are still mandated in many countries. While WHO initially cautioned that a more serious variant might emerge, this has not materialized for close to a year, and many global healthcare experts are calling for the definition of Coronavirus as "endemic" rather than "pandemic" and the lifting of remaining restrictions.

Now, WHO is signaling that a decision on the matter may come very soon, as it is "conducting final research". At the same time, many pharma companise such as Pfitzer and Moderna are in the final stages of testing an "annual vaccine" that would target both the flu and the Coronavirus, offering effective protection against new strains every year.

Key Republicans privately, and publicly, angered by Trump's indecisiveness on Presidential campaign


Source: Flickr

March 6th, 2023

MIAMI- As the times goes by without an announcement, many Republicans are increasingly anxious and angered by Trump's indecisiveness. With the Republican primary field nearly frozen at a date in which, four years before, many Democrats were already campaigning, Republican leaders candidates fret that his shadow will continue looming over the campaign season and damage their chances in the general election. Most are keeping their complaints private, but some have gone public, with Senate Minority Leader McConnell saying that Trump "needs to make a decision soon if he wants to be the nominee". Potential candidates are anxious about something else- while they wait on the sidelines for Trump's decision, some already-declared candidates are getting their names out and getting recognition. They include former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and California Congresswoman Young Kim.


With pandemic concerns fading, Biden to depart on two-week international trip to Europe


Source: US National Archives

March 11th, 2023

WASHINGTON, D.C. - After embarking on a relatively small amount of international trips in his Presidency due to Coronavirus pandemic concerns, Joe Biden announced a large-scale trip to visit "allies and partners" accross Europe. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the President is expected to discuss topics such as climate change, fair and labor-friendly trade deals, economic cooperation and shared strategies regarding problematic actors such as China, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan and Belarus.

Biden is expected to meet British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky, Hungarian Prime Minister Gergely Karácsony and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In addition, Biden is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, over a year after an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine was prevented by an-American led effort for compromise, which resulted in an arms control agreement to reduce NATO presence in Eastern Europe, restrict nuclear weapons in the region, limit Ukrainian military buildup and restrict military exercies of all three sides- NATO, Russia and Ukraine. The agreement also included a promise to hold talks on nuclear nonproliferation later on, which Biden is expected to discuss with Putin in their upcoming meeting.

Democrats, unrestricted by Manchin-Sinema pair or the filibuster, prepare for a flurry of legislative activity


Source: Flickr

March 13th, 2023

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Following a successful midterm election in which they netted two seats in the Senate, increasing their majority to 53-47, Democrats have been reportedly gearing up and are now ready for a flurry of legislative activity, in which they would pass a myriad progressive priority using their congressional majority and the lack of a filibuster restriction. Congressional Democrats have been in contact with the White House regarding priorities, and are expected to attempt a "total transformation" of American ideological politics.

Items on the agenda include a slashing in student debt, gun restriction, Roe v Wade codification, environmental standards, universal pre-K education, an expansion of paid family leave, protections for the LGBTQ community, federal curriculum standards, universal healthcare, a ban on right-to-work laws and more. Republicans warn that if Democrats "abuse their power", they would unleash a retribution that "was never seen before" once they regain power, while many pundits doubt the prudence of this strategy, saying an "overreach" could harm Democrats.

President Joe Biden Approval (February 1st)
Approve- 53.5%
Disapprove- 43.8%
Unsure- 2.7%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (February 1st)
Disapprove- 48.0%
Approve- 45.2%
Unsure- 6.8%

2024 Democratic Presidential Primary(Polling)
President Joe Biden- 58%
Senator Kyrsten Sinema- 4%
New York City Mayor Andrew Yang- 2%
Fmr. State Senator Nina Turner- 1%%
Author Marianne Williamson- 1%%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Tulsi Gabbard- 1%
Others/Unsure- 33%

2024 Republican Presidential Primary - Trump Runs (Polling)
Fmr. President Donald Trump- 64%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence- 12%
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan- 5%
Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez- 4%
U.S. Representative Young Kim- 2%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 2%
Others/Unsure- 11%

2024 Republican Presidential Primary - Trump Doesn't Run (Polling)
Governor Ron DeSantis- 22%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence- 17%
Governor Brian Kemp- 7%
Fmr. UN Ambassador Nicki Haley- 7%
Fmr. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo- 6%
Businessman Donald Trump Jr.- 5%
Businesswoman Ivanka Trump- 5%
Fmr. Governor Larry Hogan- 4%
Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez- 3%
Senator Ted Cruz- 3%
Senator Marco Rubio- 3%
Senator Tim Scott- 2%
Senator Josh Hawley- 2%
U.S. Representative Young Kim- 1%
Governor Kristi Noem- 1%
Governor Greg Abbott- 1%
Fmr. Governor Chris Christie- 1%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Liz Cheney- 1%
U.S. Representative Elsie Stefanik- 1%
Senator Rick Scott- 0%
Fmr. Governor Chris Sununu- 0%
Senator Tom Cotton- 0%
Senator Joni Ernst- 0%
Others/Unsure- 8%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 52%
Fmr. President Donald Trump (R-FL)- 43%
Others/Unsure- 5%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 54%
Fmr. Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 39%
Others/Unsure- 7%

2024 United States Presidential Election (Polling)
President Joe Biden (D-DE)- 52%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)- 40%
Others/Unsure- 8%

[America Needs R'hllor]

As is apparent, this TL is ended for now. There are too many factors about the Biden administration (like the Ukraine invasion) that aren't included and it's not interesting enough. Once we have hindsight on the Biden administration (maybe around 2024) and I can play with the plot I might reboot it
Thanks for reading!