Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

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I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

Quite logical. Israel is a country in war so lots of people prefer a strong "corrupt" leader to a weak honest leader.

But 2 things: First, I don't think taht bibi has been condemned yet (correct if I'm wrong) and second, Bibi is not a strong leader, especially with hamas.

Well, that's what his opponents on the right try to claim, but he's just less unhinged then them. I think the majority of the population still sees him as strong since "strength" is not just in policy, but mostly in perception. Israeli Russians, for example, treat him like Russian Russians treat Putin, and that's just one demographic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is probably going to be a depressing election, but yay action, I suppose
Also, there'll be a list primaries in Labour, so I guess I'll be reporting about it as much as I know since I'm a bit involved in Labour politics, at least in my university. Sad that only the highest ~10 spots are realistic.

Prediction for the list? I guess Shaffir and Michaeli will be well up there.

I heard Gabbay offered Lucy Aharish a spot on the list. And from a good authority.  

Lol that would be a gimmick that convinces no one.

Hmm, it's hard to predict these things so I'm not sure, but yeah, Michaeli and especially Shaffir are probably going to rank high. Wouldn't be surprised if Shaffir is in contention for 2nd (or rather 3rd after Livni). I guess Peretz and Yachimovich rank highly too.

Also, I'm hearing stuff about Meretz leaving Mossi Raz out, do they have a list already?

no list, Raz is simply barred for running in the primaries.

Meretz will at best get 4 seats. The party's internal turmoil is at an all time high, environment is toxic.

How can he be barred? That's a shame too, he was a unique prespective.
And that's quite sad considering they were polling at 5-6 thanks to the Labour turmoil.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

If they wish to become electorally marginalized, sure. By now it should be clear that left-of-center voters are all but married to Labour. If Labour are perceived as untrustworthy on the long-term security of the state, these voters will simply jump ship and vote for another, more credible contender to Likud - Kadima, Yesh Atid...

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Jewish Israelis want to live in a Jewish state. They disagree on the borders and size of this state, but even most (and I would perhaps say especially) supporters of a two-state solution want this, with a lot of people supporting the two-state solution because it would preserve the Jewish character of the state. "Revising" Zionism means calling into question Israel's raison d'être, which is something most Israelis have no interest in at all. So a party that does this would simply become electorally irrelevant.

Yep. Besides, Zionism is just Jewish nationalism- not that different from the wish of Germans or Italians to live in a German/Italian country (although Zionism is unique in some ways). Revising it means we don't believe in our right of self-determination.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

If they wish to become electorally marginalized, sure. By now it should be clear that left-of-center voters are all but married to Labour. If Labour are perceived as untrustworthy on the long-term security of the state, these voters will simply jump ship and vote for another, more credible contender to Likud - Kadima, Yesh Atid...

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Jewish Israelis want to live in a Jewish state. They disagree on the borders and size of this state, but even most (and I would perhaps say especially) supporters of a two-state solution want this, with a lot of people supporting the two-state solution because it would preserve the Jewish character of the state. "Revising" Zionism means calling into question Israel's raison d'être, which is something most Israelis have no interest in at all. So a party that does this would simply become electorally irrelevant.

Yep. Besides, Zionism is just Jewish nationalism- not that different from the wish of Germans or Italians to live in a German/Italian country (although Zionism is unique in some ways). Revising it means we don't believe in our right of self-determination.

We had this discussion before and I don't want to engage in another. Anyway I read "Zionism is just Jewish nationalism" and this is a flawed sentence.

Zionism is Jewish nationalism, but not only. In late XIX century early zionists advocated the colonization of lands in Palestine, in order to pave the ground for the establishment of a Jewish State. Hence Zionism is also a colonialist ideology, because its primary goal was the colonization of a country inhabited by the Palestinians.

I'm not going to delve into Zionism. Maybe there are positive aspects in what regards national and cultural building, but the negative aspects of Zionism weigh like heavy stones. Forced displacement of Palestinians during the Nakba, military occupation after the Six Days War with the aubsequent establishment of isolated ghettos, discrimination within Israeli borders and the unstoppable march towards the apartheid state are consequences of Zionism.

I would say that the murder of Rabin (a "hawk" turned into "dove") was a turnung point. Anyway the evolution of Zionism over time and the increasing power of the ultranationalist faction seem logical consequences. The Zionist "left" has became increasingly marginal and it is very unlikely that "doves" and "progressives" regain power anytime soon. Also, there is huge cintradiction between the ideals of fraternity and social justice unherent to the left, and even the foundational principles of Israel, and the reality on the ground. Discrimination, occupation, colonization, apartheid are not compatible with such principles. Therefore historical analysis, self-crticism and revision of core idrological principles seem necessary to me. Engaging this debate could be a good decision in terms of vision and long term strategy, even if it seems tactically wrong in the short term. Also, it's a matter of justice.

This is all a bunch of stale, dishonest arguments that I heard a thousand times over and responded to a thousand times over, and like everyone else that spews this BS, you ignore half the historical facts. I'm not going to respond to you with counterarguments considering that, and the fact that this is an election thread meant to discuss an election, not delve into arguments we're all very tired of. If you want, you can see my response to JA as to why I believe the far-left's "zionism is colonialism" doctrine is heavily influenced by antisemitic stereotypes and biases: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=308412.25 . I'm not going to speak any further on this blood libel.

I'd just ask you to speak with more knowledge when you come to an Israeli politics thread. We don't need these arguments here. Asking an Israeli party to embracy an anti-zionist agenda is just not smart, like David pointed out, whatever you believe ideologically.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think this type of discussion is better suited for the general discussion thread. This one is about the election. So I'll reiterate my question:

What's the dealio with Gantz? Is this really happening? If so, what's his niche?

I saw that ZU had already tried to do the "if you can't beat them, have them join you" thing by inviting him to lead the Zionist Union, but he refused, LOL.

Gantz is apparently looking to enter the election as a centrist, "responsible and calm leadership" type that attracts support from all across the spectrum. Polls show he does manage to take a few seats from the right.

Yeah, the ZU is increasingly sad. I'm probably still going to support them, but it's looking pathetic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

What's Gantz' stance (if any) on cooperation with Likud? And would YA ready to give it another try?

We know literally nothing about Gantz as of now. He's an enigma. Likud does seem to want cooperation with him, so if I had to guess he'd be willing to consider it, but I doubt he'd support Bibi if an indictment comes his way. As for YA- Lapid refused to rule this out, but I'm not sure it'll happen after their sour relationship following the first Likud-YA coalition.

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A bunch of parties (though not all) are going to go through primaries soon to get the lists ready for the election. The first to announce a date is the national union, which is the more right wing part of the Jewish Home, with the primaries taking place on January 14.

Labour is, I think, January 31st.
Also, in the National Union there seems to be a battle for leadership between incumbent Uri Ariel and raging homophobe Betzalel Smotrich. I actually root for the latter, it'll help reveal the true face of the Jewish Home.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I wonder if Chancellor Kurz will campaign with PM Netanyahu in Israel ahead of the election.

I think he might ...

They love right wing Austrians in Israel I hear.

You are mixing up the ÖVP with the FPÖ.

While the FPÖ gets boycotted by Netanyahu and many within Likud (not all of them) and most other Israeli elected officials, the ÖVP and Kurz are one of Netanyahu's biggest buddies on the globe.

Don't specifically know about the FPÖ, but Netanyahu and his party usually love far-right politicians like Orban and Bolsonaro.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked are going to leave the Jewish Home a create a new religious-secular united party.

I'm also hearing that crazy homoophobe Smotrich might take over the actual Jewish Home-National Union, but not sure at all.

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As there are at least 7 right-wing parties running, the Times of Israel reports Netanyahu is trying to lower the electoral Threshold that he raised in 2014. Until now Shas opposed this, as it would make it easier for Yishai to get in, but as Shas is one the edge of threshold they might agree.

I believe Meretz and Shas have announced opposition already, making it very unlikely.

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This move is hard because I like Livni a lot- despite being a victim of political double-standard, she was always ideologically consistent and fought for her views, she's a wonderful leader and was one of our best Foreign Ministresses, and she'd definitely make a much better Prime Minister than Gabbay. But with all the pain, with the ZU polling at single digits this union no longer made much sense, taking Labour seats and not really giving much. I hope she finds a place in politics and continues, but for now, I have to say it's probably a good political move. Maybe now Labour can start recovering.

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Israel seems to have moved a lot to the right since independence, why?

My impression is that Ashkenazi Jews lean Left and Sephardi Jews lean Right and that over time relative size of Sephardi Jews population has been going up.   Also the Russian Jews that moved into Israel in the early 1990s also lean Right.

That's a bit of an oversimplication imo. The matter in Israel isn't really demographic like in the U.S.- here it's more a matter of the public, as a whole, just moving right. It might be attributed to the continuous failures of the peace process and the terrorism that followed radicalizing much of the public and making it cynical to peace processes, but I don't think that Mizrahi Jews growing in amount makes much of an impact, since the younger generations are much less secterian anyway.

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Gonna skip over that long wall of goysplaining

IMO, what we're seeing are the internal contradictions of Labour Zionism come to bite them in the back (being a labour party that does not, by-and-large, rep working class interests, the downfall of the kibbutzes, the wink-wink two-step w/ the settlers, maintaining a colony w/i a "democratic" state).

For the "left" in Israel and Palestine to have any hope at achieving collective liberation, it's going to have to move beyond Zionism.

Dov Khenin, I think, has it right:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You can't just complain about goysplaining and then seriously suggest a strategy that will bring any leftist Jewish party below the threshold

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gonna skip over that long wall of goysplaining

IMO, what we're seeing are the internal contradictions of Labour Zionism come to bite them in the back (being a labour party that does not, by-and-large, rep working class interests, the downfall of the kibbutzes, the wink-wink two-step w/ the settlers, maintaining a colony w/i a "democratic" state).

For the "left" in Israel and Palestine to have any hope at achieving collective liberation, it's going to have to move beyond Zionism.

Dov Khenin, I think, has it right:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You can't just complain about goysplaining and then seriously suggest a strategy that will bring any leftist Jewish party below the threshold

I only said "achieving collective liberation" - I am under no illusions that it would prove electorally successful in 2019 (tho I don't think the Labor Party will be either). As Khenin's quote says, the work isn't going to be done from w/i the Knesset right now.

But still, most of the left-leaning Israelis don't adhere to Marxist theory. For most of us, "collective liberation" is nothing but a fantasy at best or a Marxist indoctrination at worst.
Of course communists wouldn't believe in zionism- after all, communists don't believe in any nationality, and I'm ok with that in a conceptual sense. It's not like the actual radical left antisemites who believe in Palestinian nationality or any other sorts of nationalism but not Jewish nationalism. But as someone who doesn't believe in Marxism, and I think many Israeli leftists agree with me, Zionism is an important stalwart of my ideology.
And in the end, one of the best arguments for the 2SS is a zionist one- it's the only way to keep a Jewish state in the long term.
So yeah, the zionist left is here to stay. In this election, as many of its less ideological voters bleed to the center parties, it'll probably be struck a huge electoral blow as Meretz remains in the 5-7 seats and Labour is reduced to single digits. But it's here to stay.

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From their membership roster, it looks like Gantz' party is just Likud minus Netanyahu. Albeit, while trying to remain intentionally vague about it.

Nah, not really. Gantz's party is vastly different to the clowncar that is Likud, and in any case Ya'alon isn't that right wing at this point.

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I've read quite a bit about Israeli politics and recently spent time in Israel but still have this question: What do the Arab parties differ on? Like I know Hadash is broadly a "joint Jewish-Arab" Communist party, but what makes the others different? Is one less extreme than the others?

In addition to what others have said, Balad I believe is more of a secular Palestinian nationalist party, Ra'am is an Islamist party representing the southern brandh of the Islamic Movement and is strong with the Bedouin of the south, while Ta'al is focused on Israeli Arab issues and is more secular.

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

He's adamant about leading the list. He says that Peretz is politically inexperienced so he should lead the JH, and appears to be in a position of power anyway as the far right Marzel types and Eli Yishai will probably merge with him, ensuring he'll pass the threshold, while the JH's only other option is to join Likud in very low places Netanyahu reserved.

In other news, Netanyahu urged Smotrich to merge with these people, so basically, the Israeli Prime Minister is promoting the entrance of vile, violent racists into the Knesset. Sad.

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Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

Smotrich is the head of the Tkuma faction (or party), which was a founding member of the National Union back in 1999 but has run on a joint list with Jewish Home (which is larger) in 2013 and 2015. (In 2015 specifically, they were allocated the second, eighth, thirteenth, and seventeenth spots on the Jewish Home list; Uri Ariel and Bezalel Smotrich were elected from the second and eighth spots, respectively. Tkuma has suffered from a lack of differentiation from the broader Jewish Home; for instance, current Deputy Minister of Defense Eli Ben-Dahan was originally a Tkuma member, but switched to the broader Jewish Home in 2015 so he could run in the primaries (where he came second after Ayelet Shaked, and so fourth on the main list since spots one and two were reserved for Bennett and Ariel).

Smotrich is prominent on social media and might be the most famous person running in the Jewish Home in 2019, so he wants the top spot for himself, but in the past couple elections the Tkuma leader has been second instead of heading the list. Why they don't just merge is unclear to me -- Uri Ariel ran on a platform of merging them for the Tkuma leadership, but Smotrich beat him.

Anyway...any thoughts from our Israeli posters on what to watch for in the Likud primaries on Tuesday? English-language pieces I've read have been very rudimentary.

There are a few things that personally interest me and probably other people:

Former Minister Gideon Sa'ar has been attacked by Bibi with bizarre conspiracies that he's trying to undermine him, so it'll be interesting if he can achieve a high place despite the PM's hostility. It'll also be curious to see what positions former Kulanu Minister Galant and former Jerusalem Mayor Barkat achieve. Also, watch for the competition between different Likud Ministers who might aim to inherit Netanyahu's position when that day comes- Yisrael Katz, Miri Regev, Gilad Erdan and maybe Yuli Edelstein. Lastly, at least some current MKs will not be placed in realistic positions, so it's curious to see who- Minister Ayoob Kara will almost certainly not get in, maybe Avi Dichter or Tzipi Hotovely, who struggled in primaries in the past? I'm personally also curious to see what happens with the controversial and, in my opinion, really vile MK Oren Hazan. I pray he'll get off, especially after his cheap populist attacks on my university, but I doubt it because this type of rhetoric is attractive in modern Likud. So, does he improve his position?

[America Needs R'hllor]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

I'm not entirely sure as I'm not a Likud member. I do believe, from what I know about our process in Labour, that everyone votes for the same candidates but whoever wins the most votes amongst the candidates for a spot reserved for, say, Galilee, they get that spot. Not sure, though, if aby Israeli poster knows better they should correct me.

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Journalist Amit Segal reports some "commotion" in the Likud vote-counting: the members of the party's election committee were removed from the counting location, the party's inside comptroller tried to protest to no avail.
Update: the committee was returned due to the internal comptroller, apparently.

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Is there a page when we can see the votes coming in?

Pretty sure there isn't. The counting seems to be slow and ponderous anyway.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Right now, it seems like this is the trajectory:

Minister Katz and Speaker Edlestein are in a close fight for first place, Katz narrowly leading right now. Sa'ar is third, followed closely by Erdan and Regev, who are struggling for the 4th and 5th places. Looks like Sa'ar did pretty well, which Bibi can't be happy with.

Next on we see Minister Levin, who Bibi heavily promoted, at 6th, while the two newcomers- Jerusalem  Mayor Barkat and Kulanu defector Galant- are struggling for 7th and 8th which is great for them, with Barkat currently 7th. Minister Gamliel, who wants to be Education Minister, is pretty far from them at 9th which is 10th on the list including Bibi. Avi Dichter, former Kadima defector who barely got into the list last time around, is at 10th aka 11th- he wants to be Defense Minister like Galant and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs to replace Bibi when the time comes. Others who positioned themselves well today- Katz if he comes first, Edlestein though he doesn't seem that ambitious to me, definitely Sa'ar who won a great place despite Netanyahu viciously attacking him, and possibly Barkat, who held the jumping pad of Jerusalem Mayor.

Likely to be booted off the realistic places: controversial MK Oren Hazan and Minister Ayoob Kara. I also believe MK Yehuda Glick, who wants to abolish conscription, will not get in (sadly- he's an incredibly fascinating man).

MKs who seem likely not to get in: Oren Hazan, Ayoob Kara, Anat Berko, Nurit Koren, Nava Boker and Yehuda Glick
Liberal darling Share Haskel probably gets in at 29th place... And with all the reserved seats Ayoob Kara, who came right after her in the primary itself, will be 38th on the final list, which is very unlikely to get in.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the Tel Aviv region's reserved spot (31st on the final list) there's currently a tight proxy battle- David Sharen, former Bibi Chief of Staff currently investigated for corruption in the submarine investigation VS Shir Michal, former Sa'ar secretary. Michal is narrowly leading right now, despite Bibi pointedly endorsing Sharen. Update: Sharen leading now.

Current top 10:
1. Yisrael Katz
2. Yuli Edlestein
3. Gideon Sa'ar
4. Gilad Erdan
5. Miri Regev
6. Nir Barkat
7. Yariv Levin
8. Yoav Galant
9. Gila Gamliel
10. Avi Dichter

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hazan and Boker out is great news, sadly Zohar is still in the top 30. Bittan took a slight hit which is also good.
It will be interesting to see if Bibi pass by Saar and doesn't give him a cabinet seat after the election

I'm disappointed that traitor Ohana did well. But yeah, generally the list isn't bad considering it's Likud. Especially interesting that Sa'ar did so well despite the vicious attacks by the Netanyahu family- it really shows that his power isn't unlimited in the party.