Hindsight Is 2020

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving this so far, great job.
I'm thinking of trying to be a pundit as well- perhaps an Israeli pundit to give a different PoV from the other pundits? Not sure. Do you think it could be helpful?

Yes, it would absolutely be helpful! Once you have a specific name in mind (or you could make one up) post it in the thread, I'll update the list on the bottom of page 1, and you'll be all set! Oh and Im super glad you're enjoying this!

Tal Schneider, an independent journalist, is pretty much the only Israeli journalist who had any real insight on US politics this election cycle (the mainstream news agencies just presented dumbed-down or outright wrong facts or commentary), so I think I'll assume she became more powerful/well-funded during these 4 years and go with her

[America Needs R'hllor]

A transcript of a segment from Tal Schneider's new Political Analysis show, The Plog Show

Hello and welcome, viewers and readers! This is Tal Schneider, and we're here for another Political Update from the Plog. And of course, we will begin with the election for the Presidency of the United States, which, if our own politicians don't decide to mess with Political journalists and create their own election, will be the first order of business for quite a long time.

The race is heating up, and already the Democratic field looks set to be one of the biggest ever for this party. Will this have a negative affect for them in the General Election, or a positive one? We cannot know for sure, as election resluts in the last 20 years were mixed on that regard. On the one hand, a small field is more likely to cause a bitter fight and a split in support between two candidates, which could leave the losing candidate's supporters bitter, like what happened in 2016 between Clinton and Sanders. The Republicans, meanwhile, had a large field, and it seemed like despite Trump's attacks on his opponents, their supporters weren't particularly alienated. Meanwhile, a large field can cause the appearance of petty infighting between engorged egos, like what happened to the Republicans in 2012, so that's also something to take note of.

But let's look at the current field of candidates for the Democratic Nomination:


Certainly, the race is heating up fast. I think what's really interesting is the large amount of female candidates, compromising almost half of the field. Could that be a result of Hillary Clinton's success? That must've contributed to it, at the very least.

Elizabeth Warren is now slightly leading the field with about 14% in national polling, with Mayor de Blasio just behind her at 13%, and Senator Ron Wyden at 11%. That's, by the way, a substantial decrease for Warren and Wyden, and an increase for de Blasio. A trend? We can't know, but the race seems so close that we can't really point to a frontrunner.

It seems like much of it will come down to the debates, scheduled for July, where everyone will have an equal voice. There, at least some candidates will probably be able to distinguish themselves, for good or bad.

But if I had to make an assumption, I'd say that it will come down to a race between Warren, Booker, and Franken. Cantwell, Wolf and Brown just aren't well-known enough, and save for a fantastic debate showing, will find it very hard to emerge from the pack and interest the lower information voters. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo will find it almost impossible to get the populist wing of the party to like him, and I don't see a wide path for Wyden to increase his support from his core base of Libertarian Democrats. The ones who I believe are the likeliest to emerge as frontrunners among the others are Mayor de Blasio, who could face critisicm for his stewardship in New York City, and Tammy Baldwin, who could face a name recognition problem.


Meanwhile, no new developments in the Republican battle between President Trump and Senator Cruz, but with Trump so unpopular, anything can happen. We shall have to wait and see.

But that's it for Political blabbering today- tune in next time, as we're going to have a very special guest interviewed here!

[America Needs R'hllor]

A transcript of Gov. Kate Brown's interview in the Political Blog of Tal Schneider



Hello, viewers, thank you for tuning in. We have a special guest here today- Democratic Presidential Candidate Kate Brown, the Governor of Oregon. As you know, our interview won't be completely ordinary- I will ask the first two questions, and the rest will be chosen from the questions sent to us by readers and members of our WhatsApp group, mainly from Israeli political circles. So without further delay- welcome, Governor, and thank you for being with us here today. How are you feeling these days, standing for the first time in the national spotlight?
Thank you for having me, it's good to be here. I'm feeling alright. I've campaigned before, and I've heard my name before on national news, but never really like this. It's humbling, to be honest with you.

The Democratic field is swiftly growing, and it seems to be potentially one of the biggest Democratic fields ever. Why do you think voters should elect you over bigger, more known names?
A lot of these Democratic candidates have opposing Donald Trump as their claim to fame. That's why they're so well-known, I think. But most of the candidates don't have a record of actually leading a state and doing things to improve the lives of their constituents, and that's something I know how to do and would be able to do as President.

Governor, we both have to admit that your name recognition is relatively low, compared to many of your opponents in the primaries. Why do you think it is so? Is it a matter of charisma, accomplishments or simply luck?
Is this going to be every question? But to answer it, I think it's a matter of luck and geography. Oregon isn't a swing state, it's not where the national campaigns are fought. And the work of governing effectively for your people isn't as headline-grabbing as filibustering or taking part in reality show politics.

Now, for questions sent to us by our readers and members of our WhatsApp group. First, a question from a reader, Jordan Fishman. "Governor Brown, you're the first openly Bisexual Governor of a State. Compared to Homosexuality, Bisexuality is still relatively unknown and suffers from a negative picture in the eyes of people- do you plan to address this?
Over the last several years, the LGBT community has lost a lot of the stigma they've had to deal with. More people than ever, especially young people, know a bisexual person or at least understand the concept of bisexuality. I think just seeing somebody on the stage, who's been a successful governor and has a chance to be President, who's bisexual will do a lot to ease the remaining stigma.

A question submitted by Eli Ben-Yehuda, a Parliamentarian aide from Jerusalem: "Governor Brown, do you think you have a chance to emerge as the victor from this field? What would be your strategy for this?
Thankfully the DNC learned what neither party knew four years ago, which is that an open and level playing field is the only way to stop terrible candidates from representing the party on the national stage. I think I can make a strong case for myself at the debates, and I think the more people know about me, the more they'll like.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Plog- Tal Schneider's Political Blog

Friday, May 3rd, 2019

Sherrod Brown enters Democratic race, shakes up field


Hello, readers. Two days ago, we've welcomed a new, surprising candidate to the big field of the Democratic Primary- Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who was thought by many to not have big presidential ambitions before that.
This move is already making waves, as he takes an immediate lead in the Iowa polls and passes all the other Midwestern candidates to a third place in the national polls.
But despite Brown's popularity, this move caused me to raise an eyebrow. Three other Midwestern candidates are already in the race, and another candidate, Senator Warren, seems to have no real policy differences with Brown. So why is he running? Is it ambition, or does he have any cause to advance? Surely, this is a question he must address.
But meanwhile, the nails of campaign staffers and officials working for Sens. Baldwin, Franken, and Warren, as well as Gov. Wolf, are probably being abused and bitten at a record pace. As if it wasn't hard enough for them to emerge from the pack, now the popular populist Senator from Ohio is in, making it even more complicated.
But in any instance, Brown's entrance will have a big impact on the dynamic of the race, and raises some interesting questions, some of which we've directed to the campaigns which are the likliest to be strongly affected:

A question submitted to the campaigns of Senator Al Franken, Senator Tammy Baldwin, and Governor Tom Wolf:
"The entrance of Senator Brown increases the number of candidates from the Midwest to four, a historic high. How is your candidate planning to distinguish himself/herself in this setting, and will you try and win over the group of Midwestern voters who would likely consolidate around a popular Midwestern politician if she/he didn't have such a competition?"

Response from the Franken Campaign: "This is a large and strong Democratic field, but a new addition, or the geography of that addition, doesn't change the fact that Senator Franken has a long history of fighting for the people of Minnesota and taking on large interests."

Response from the Wolf campaign: "Governor Wolf is the of the only candidates in this field with executive experience, and is in fact the only one who has been elected to two full terms as Governor. We believe Governor Wolf's record and experiences make him better equipped for the Presidency than anyone else in the running."

Response from the Baldwin campaign: "Our campaign is strong and well-organised. Regardless of how many candidates are in the running, we believe the people will hear Tammy Baldwin's message and join our team."

All three campaigns responded with confidence, unsurprisingly, but it is interesting to see how they differ from each other. While the Franken and Baldwin campaigns have responded with messages which are aimed at the hearts of voters, with talk of the people, the Wolf campaign aimed at the brains- while this strategy could be successful a few years ago, are peoeple looking for executive experience this year, with populism in the US being so strong? His governance experience messaging has the danger of allowing him to be framed as an establishment candidate, part of the governing elite, which would certainly not help him in Iowa. Ultimately, I believe that Governor Wolf will be seen as too generic and uninspiring, sinking his candidacy.

We've also submitted a questions to the campaigns of Sens. Brown and Warren:

"Sens. Warren and Brown had been longtime allies in the Senate, who fought together for the same causes. Will we be seeing a friendly race, or a more competitive one? And more importantly, is there an actual policy difference between the two candidates, or is this a battle of personalities?"

Response from the Warren campaign: "Senators Warren and Brown have been allies since the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was created. We don't intend to launch degrading personal attacks on Brown, and we expect the Brown campaign to hold themselves to a similar standard."

Response from the Brown campaign: "Sherrod Brown and Sen. Warren are longtime allies and friends. The race between our campaigns will be positive and friendly out of mutual respect. There are some disagreements between Sherrod Brown and Senator Warren, which will be highlighted in the upcoming debates, but we agree on far more than either of us does with Donald Trump."

The Warren campaign's response seems more strict and cold, failing to address any difference between the two Senators and making a veiled threat to the Brown campaign to warn them not to attack her. On the other hand, the Brown campaign's response seems to reflect the optimism of its candidate, and seems far more warm and friendly. He also makes it clear that differences exist, setting the ground for Brown to distinguish himself.

At this stage it cannot be described than more than a speculation and a gut feeling, but I believe that Brown will be gaining ground in the coming months, and that he will prove to be a better campaigner than Warren, ultimately defeating her. Of course, this prediction is currently unfounded, so we will have to see for ourselves how will this very interesting race develop.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loved this! Both the debate and the 538 profiles
Just a small nitpick- NeverAgain, I think you swapped between Governor Kate Brown and Governor Jerry Brown.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Next time: It’s a blood sport…

*Squeals* the hungry for power games!

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Plog- Tal Schneider's Political Blog

Friday, August 16th, 2019



The Road to the Presidency

Hello, readers, and thank you for your interest.
As we know, the Democratic debates came and went. Already, the influence of the DNC's new approach is clear, and it had a big impact on the debate. Some candidates' chances soared, some plummeted.
As the picture gets clearer, we've decided to introduce a new series- the Road to the Presidency. First, we will assess each candidate, Democrat or Republican, and his or her chances to win the Presidency. Then, we will focus on one candidate, and look at the route he has to take in order to win the White House. Additionally, we'll include a question submitted to the candidate's campaign, or even an interview.
This first part of the series will be longer than usual, and serve as a template for us when we assess each candidate's chances compared to his or herprevious chances, providing a link to this post. Now, let us begin exploring the road to the presidency!

The Prospects

  President Donald J. Trump- 39%
As the incumbent President, and as the opposing party doesn't have a clear frontrunner, Donald Trump is still, inarguably, the likliest person to be President of the United States come January 20th, 2021. But a shaky presidency, bad midterms, and a formidable primary challenge all make his chances not as good as they should be, and Donald Trump will, likely, have to work hard if he doesn't want to be the first President since George H.W. Bush to lose reelection.

  Senator Tammy Baldwin- 12%
The shooting star in the Democratic primary contest ever since the first debate, Baldwin is now tied with Elizabeth Warren for the first place in the polls, and leading the Iowa polls. We also believe that Baldwin would be more likely to defeat Donald Trump in a general election than Warren- she's not only a popular Midwesterner, but also did not have as much time as Warren in the national spotlight, which means that people's opinions about her are more elastic.

  Senator Al Franken- 10%
Although he's only third in the polls, Franken's charisma and popularity make him, in our assessment, liklier to win than his numbers suggest. He's within reach in Iowa, and has already shown himself to be a great debater, so the road to the presidency is wide open for him.

  Senator Elizabeth Warren- 9%
And now, we've reached the elephant in the room. Why did we put the frontrunner as the third likliest Democrat? First of all, arguably, she's declining in the polls. She's been in the national spotlight for a long time, and Democratic voters have shown a desire for something new. She's from Massachusetts, which could allow Trump to frame her as part of the elite, and the Republicans, no doubt, have a large cache of weapons against her. Still, she's a great debater and has been a progressive, anti-Trump leader for a long time, so her chances are still decent.

 Senator Cory Booker- 7%
Booker has one, decisive advantage. Yes, he's a great debater, very chatismatic and on a rise in the polls. But his main advanatage is that he's the clear leader of the establishment Democrats in the race, and the anti-establishment lane is fractured into many pieces. Despite what some think, the establishment is still powerful.

  Senator Sherrod Brown- 7%
After his late entry to the race, we thought that Brown is the likliest Democrat to win. Now that he did not manage to surge to a lead, we no longer think that he's so likely. Still, he's popular in the Midwest, a strong advantage in the general election, a good debater, and very popular among Democrats, giving him a decent chance.

  Senator Ted Cruz- 5%
Cruz's path seems very narrow and odd. In order to upset President Trump and take the nomination from him, he'd probably need a miracle, and even then, a desertion of Trump supporters and an extremely wounding primary could make his chances to win the general election slim.

  Governor Kate Brown- 4%
Despite low polling and low name recognition, Brown has done well in the debate and saw a rise in the polls. Her record seems completely clean, and the fact that she's now one of the two only Governors allows her to use a powerful argument, especially since most of her opponents are Senators serving in Washington, D.C.

  Mayor Bill de Blasio- 3%
De Blasio is polling very well for a mayor, and he's very popular among Democrats for his opposition to Donald Trump, but he still seems to be struggling to make the argument of why he is the right person to replace Trump.

  Governor Tom Wolf- 2%
We have to face it- Tom Wolf is pretty dull. He could be a very compelling candidate, being the governor of a large swing state Trump won in 2016, but that just doesn't cut it, and his prospects to rise seem to rely soley on a victory in Iowa. If he cannot do much better in the next debates, he's doomed.

  Senator Tammy Duckworth- 1%
Duckworth's lifestory is remarkable, and she has the potential to be a very strong candidate. But her campaigning, debating skills and charisma don't shine too brightly, and a life story alone isn't going to cut it. Like Wolf, she has to make a strong improvement in the next debates.

  Senator Ron Wyden- <1%
At first, Ron Wyden seemed to have a surprisingly strong base. Now, after a bad debate, this base seems much smaller. Wyden's opinions on a veriety or subjects like trade are toxic in today's Democratic party, and it seems like his chances to expand his base are slim.

  Senator Maria Cantwell- <1%
Without a strong presence in the national stage, and her messaging doesn't seem to be strong. Like Duckworth, she seems like just another Senator, and she doesn't even have a compelling life story. Worse, her opinions are similar to Wyden, and he seems to be communicating them better. It's pretty clear- Maria Cantwell will not be the next President of the United States.

  Governor Andrew Cuomo- 0%
Even before withdrawing from the race, Cuomo did not seem to have much of a chance. Now, of course, his chance is zero.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Focus
Today, we will be focusing on none other than the rising star- Senator Tammy Baldwin. Here is the interview we had with her:

Hello, Senator Baldwin. Welcome, good of you to come.
Thank you, it's great to be here!

First of all, congratulations on your strong debate performance. How are you feeling since then?
I'm feeling pretty good! You should see my campaign staff, though. They've been elated. I'm telling you this because when you run a campaign, if everyone in your staff is feeling a certain way, it's going to affect you and the campaign. I love seeing my amazing team this happy!

Back in May, when we asked your campaign how can you stand out among all the Midwestern candidates. You replied that when people hear your message, they will join your team. Now, you're tied with Senator Warren for the first spot in the polls. Is this what happened? Your message is resounding?
I think so! *laughs* At the debate I laid out my plan for the country, and if you look at the polls now, I wouldn't call that a coincidence.

As you know, we're interviewing you for a new series in our political blog about each candidate's prospects and road to the Presidency. You are our focus this time. What's your strategy? In this large field, what do you think is your winning message, that will win you the nomination?
I believe what the voters want to see is some actual concrete policies that would help them and this country, coming from a person who could be trusted to put them into practice. Our team has a lot of energy, we have great ideas, and we have a candidate who, if I do say so myself, has a pretty good record in Congress. Now, I have to admit we're not the only campaign with this approach. But what we also offer is a beacon of hope for the members of the LGBT community who are struggling in this country, and for the women and girls who believe that a woman can never be President after what happened three years ago.

Do you think that you're the best candidate to defeat Trump? If so, why?
If you're asking every candidate this question, I can guarantee you you're not going to get a single "no" answer. *laughs* But to answer your question, the reason why I think I'm the best candidate to go up against Trump is that I'm everything he isn't. I have ideas for new policies that would help the middle and working classes, he has no ideas at all. I care about every person in this country, he only cares about his cronies. He's demeaned women and the LGBT community, and I have fought for women's rights and LGBT rights in Congress. I think the American people are sick of Trump and I'm as different a direction as this country can go.

Lastly, I know you will probably prefer not to answer this... But among your opponents in the primary, who do you think would make a good running mate?
Nearly all of them. Most of the people I'm running against are my colleagues and friends in the Senate, and I have a great deal of respect for them. Among the Senators who are running against me now, I know they would have a great time working with me if it came to that, and I feel the same way about them.

So, after that, let us look at Senator Baldwin's path to the Presidency:



Clearly, her first step towards the President must be to continue doing great in debates, even outshining candidates such as Booker, Warren and Franken.
Afterwards, the first victory she must achieve is in Iowa. If she does not win there, she could wane as a candidate. That is clearly a victory she could achieve, but she'll have a fierce battle with Senator Brown, Senator Franken and Governor Wolf.
She will then have to proceed and win most, if not all of the other midwestern states, most importantly Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota and of course, Wisconsin. She has a strong appeal to the residents of these states and could win them, but to do that, she will have to set aside her Midwestern rivals.
Another area where she may have strong appeal is the Northeast- her liberal, progressive agenda could resound well with the northeastern liberals, as well as the strong support to lgbt rights and women's rights in this area. But Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker could pose strong obstacles for a victory there.
Then, she will almost certainly have to win California- a state where, again, lgbt and women's rights are widely supported, and liberal, progressive ideas could resound well.
Lastly, she will have to be nominated by the DNC, which could, potentially, be a contested convention. But if Keith Ellison's plan will succeed, and Senator Baldwin will indeed manage to win the areas we've specified, with some victories elsewhere, she will be in a very strong position to be the candidate everyone else coaleses around.
Her last obstacle in the path to the White House will be, most likely, Donald Trump - and with her Midwestern appeal and strong support with the Democratic base, she's well-positioned to defeat him.

Thank you for reading, we will continue following this very interesting election season.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Here’s the national poll that determined the order for debate round 2:

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Warren: 17%
Sen. Baldwin: 14%
Sen. Brown: 13%
Sen. Franken: 12%
Sen. Booker: 8%
Mayor de Blasio: 7%
Gov. Wolf: 6%
Sen. Wyden: 6%
Gov. Brown: 5%
Sen. Duckworth: 3%
Sen. Cantwell: 2%

Round one will feature Warren, Sherrod Brown, Booker, Wolf, Kate Brown, and Cantwell. Round two will feature Baldwin, Franken, de Blasio, Wyden, and Duckworth.

By the way, I'm noticing a lack of punditry. Is it because the two hiatuses have drained interest? Updates are now going to be daily a while, though upon request from a pundit I could delay an update by a day or so.

I'm still very much interested in this Just waiting for things to write about.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Enjoying this, like always! Sorry for not being active as a pundit, it's a pretty busy time for me right now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Plog- Tal Schneider's Political Blog

Monday, February 3rd, 2020



The Road to the Presidency

Hello, readers, welcome to The Plog. The Iowa Caucuses came and went, and we still don't have a clear image of Democratic primary. Yes, Senator Sherrod Brown won, but only narrowly- Senator Baldwin, the runner-up, came within two percents of victory, Warren and Franken closely following. But we also have some big losers tonight, and two candidates were cleared from the field. Additionally, Ted Cruz's major loss in the caucuses might be an early death for his campaign, after he won it on 2016. For more of this, let us inspect The Road to the Presicency.

As always, I will link to the first part of this segement, which serves as a reference to the various candidates' starting positions: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252835.125

  President Donald J. Trump- 40%
President Trump, after beginning the Republican primaries as a shaky incumbent, with a major primary challenge, now seems almost assured a victory. His landslide victory in Iowa makes Cruz's opposition much weaker, but he's still assured a very tough general election campaign, which makes his chances lower.

  Senator Sherrod Brown- 15%
After his important victory in Iowa, Senator Brown's chances to win the presidency shot up. He's still in no way assured to win the Democratic nomination, but his victory in Iowa, as well as his focus on trying to build a wide primary coalition that includes African American, progressive and white working class voters, make him the frontrunner.

  Senator Elizabeth Warren- 12%
Senator Warren might have lost her status as frontrunner, but did much better than expected in Iowa, outdoing the polls by around ten percentage points. Add to that the fact that Iowa was never crucial for the Warren campaign, and you get a campaign which is certainly not dead yet. She has to do well in New Hampshire, but if she can outdo the polls by even a third of the amount she outdid them in Iowa, she will win there.
Still, my gut feeling from months ago remains my prediction- Senator Warren will lose to Brown. She has been in public eye for too long, and people tend to perfer new faces. Brown is not only a new face, but with much bigger appeal to the white working class people who the Democrats so sorely need back.

 Senator Cory Booker- 10%
As the establishment lane clears more and more and the progressive lane remains crowded, Cory Booker's chances get better. He's also poised to do well in the coming contests in Nevada and the southern states, so the nightmare of progressives might yet be fulfilled- Cory Booker might become the next nominee.

  Senator Tammy Baldwin- 8%
In the last part of our series, we put the focus on Senator Baldwin. We said then, that Iowa is a crucial first step for her to win in order to be the nominee, and we still do- thus, Brown's victory there presents her campaign with a very big question mark. Can she recover and gain victories elsewhere? Only time can tell, but she's still an undoubtedly popular candidate, and her chances cannot be ruled out.
After the Iowa loss, we've sent a question to the Baldwin campaign, and they've responded as expected:
"The Iowa caucuses have been widely regarded as a very important roadblock for your presidential campaign. After losing it, will you continue your campaign? And if so, what is your strategy going forward, despite the loss in a more favourable territory for you than the next states?"
Answer from the Baldwin campaign: "We finished second in Iowa, a result that we're proud of. Going forward, we have reason to be optimistic in New Hampshire and Nevada. We won't be scared off just from a single loss!"

  Senator Al Franken- 7%
Senator Franken is in the same position as Baldwin, but while she was the runner-up in Iowa, he only came fourth. We cannot tell if this will impact him negatively, but his name will naturaly be mentioned less in the news when the Iowa results are reported, and he will not be able to paint his showing there as very strong, so his chances were probably harmed more than hers.
We've sent the same question we sent the Baldwin campaign, to Al Franken's campaign. Here is their answer.
Answer from the Franken campaign: "While a victory in Iowa would have been nice for our campaign, we always accounted for the possibility of losing it. We intend to continue spreading Al Franken's message as long as we have a path forward."

  Mayor Bill de Blasio- 4%
De Blasio was one of the frontrunners last year, but now he seems to be no more than a road bump for the five frontrunners. He did very badly in Iowan, and is not expected to do much better in New Hampshire, so his chances seem to rely soley on winning in the south. With Corey Booker doing much better than him in debates, this doesn't seem very likely, but if he manages to win in South Carolina, his chances will soar.

  Governor Kate Brown- 2%
The only governor in the democratic field seems like a chanceless candidate. She doesn't seem to have any particular base in the party, with the women, lgbt, and progressives mostly supporting other candidates, and her debate performances aren't too bright. She's polling among the last in almost every early state (other than New Hampshire) and in national poll, so her only chance to win is a great debate performance and a victory in the Granite State.

  Senator Ted Cruz- 1%
Initially, Ted Cruz was rising in the polls and threatening Donald Trump. But Iowa was to be the crown jewel of his upset victory, and he had everything going for him there- he won it in 2016, was still popular with the evangelicals who gave him this victory, and Trump is unpopular. Still, he didn't even reach the 30%, and this seems to be a deathblow to his campaign.

  Senator Ron Wyden- 1%
A dismal showing in Iowa didn't change it much for Ron Wyden- his ideology doesn't fit the modern democratic party. He does manage to articulate his vision well though, and Maria Cantwell's withdrawal leaves him as the only candidate in that lane of the party, so that slightly increases his chances.

 Governor Tom Wolf- 0%

 Senator Tammy Duckworth- 0%

 Senator Maria Cantwell- 0%

 Governor Andrew Cuomo- 0%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Here's your Trump Tweet

Love it!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Looks like we're going to have an intense 3-way race all the way to the D.C. Primary. But well... I'll leave the commentary to Tal Schneider

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Baldwin!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fun fact: real life Tal Schneider shared a John Oliver video yesterday. Quite ironic
Antway, I should probably write something soon.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Plog- Tal Schneider's Political Blog

April 10th 2020



Well, this has certainly been a very interesting month for our Blog! Moderating a Democratic debate, which was without a doubt the highest point of my career as an independent journalist and an amazing reward for all this time dealing with media companies not paying for my work and other issues small businesses have to face. I'm very humbled by all the love that my long-time readers were giving me for such a long time, and the overwhelming support I now have from so many people after this debate.
But the month that followed the debate was certainly not lacking action! I had no doubt that the debate, moderated by two non-mainstream journalists such as me and Kyle Kulinski, would be controversial, but I did not imagine that it would cause such a big controversy. Since I was, obviously, a big part of this debate I think it's time I commented on it at length. Three points:
1. Kyle is a great guy, and it was a pleasure working on this debate with him. He's intelligent, he's funny and he's very passionate about progressive agenda.
2. I do agree that his questioning was not the most balanced one ever, but I don't think it's fair to say that it was extremely biased. More like, it was extremely progressive. Let's all remember that he asked Senator Brown a very critical question about his support for a public option instead of a single-payer system. I was also there when we chose the audience questions, and the questions eventually chosen for Senator Baldwin was a very critical audience PACs question. He insisted on this question. The one chosen for Senator Warren was an even more critical one about donations from the securities and investments industries, and Kyle pursued it stubbornly when Warren dodged.
3. So while the questioning against Booker did show Kyle's opinion, I think he was, overall, a wonderful moderator. No one else would've pursued these questions, which are very important to the Democratic base, with such dedication. He doesn't deserve to be attacked so harshly.

So with that aside, let us inspect The Road to the Presicency.

As always, I will link to the first part of this segement, which serves as a reference to the various candidates' starting positions: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252835.125

  President Donald J. Trump- 46%
Having secued the Republican nomination, and with a Democratic field in an extremely contentious environment, Donald Trump seems to be having a good time. But despite all this, he remains unpopular and his Presidency remains plagued by problems, so his chances remain below the 50%.
Of course, this also depends on which of the Democrats he will be running against- for example, Senator Brown is considered liklier to unseat the President than Senator Warren. On this subject, we sent a question to the Trump campaign:

Now that the Democratic field is consisting of three candidates, and we know that one of them will be running against President Trump, which of the three does your campaign think would be the easiest to defeat, and which do you think would be the toughest?
Response from the Trump Campaign: We believe Donald Trump could easily prevail against anyone nominated by the Crooked Democratic Party.

  Senator Sherrod Brown- 25%
Sherrod Brown, in the recent months, has succeeded in winning consistently in grounds where he was not expected to win. First, he pushed out Bill de Blasio and Cory Booker by doing surprisingly well with the African-American voters in the South. Then, he showed his strength in the Midwest, and did very well in other areas. He seems to be the favourite for the Democratic nomination.
We sent a question to Senator Brown's campaign, too:

Senator Brown appears to be on the lead, but there's still a long path until the end. Do you believe that a continuing contentious primary is harming the Democratic prospects, and that your opponents should drop out so that the Democrats can concentrate on Trump, or do you think that the primary is actually good?
Response from the Brown Campaign: While it would be wonderful for our campaign if Senators Warren and Baldwin dropped out tomorrow, we know that won't happen. The Democratic nominating process is designed to give every primary voter a competitive choice. Senator Brown knew from the start that he was going to be competing with other Democrats until every state votes. If we do win, we want it to be because we've earned it, not because it was given to us.

Senator Brown's campaign manager, Justin Barasky, added to the response a letter thanking me for moderating the debate fantastically. I'm humbled. Thank you, Justin!

  Senator Elizabeth Warren- 17%
Warren, initially, was the frontrunner. But now she seems to be lagging behind Sherrod Brown- she does well almost every week, but he seems to always edge her out. Still, she remains popular, and with the coming contests in the Northeast, from which she hails, and the staunchly liberal pacific coast, she's still a very strong candidate.
We sent Warren's campaign the same question as Brown's:

Senator Warren, right now, is trailing Senator Brown. Do you not think that a continuing contentious primary is harming the Democratic prospects, and that dropping out so that the Democrats can concentrate on Trump would be best, or do you think that the primary is actually good?
Response from the Warren Campaign: the Primaries are far from over. Wisconsin votes soon, and New York soon after that. We don't believe stifling debate by dropping out is good for anybody, and we certainly don't believe we don't have a chance to win. Senator Warren will fight for every single vote in every single state.

  Senator Tammy Baldwin- 12%
Baldwin's campaign seems to have slim chances. She seems poised to either lose in her homestate, wisconsin, or barely win it, and afterwards she doesn't seem to have many openings to pass Warren or Brown. There's only one place that might save her- California.
We sent her campaign this question:

During the campaign, Senator Baldwin seemed to make Hispanics her base in the Democratic party. If Senator Baldwin wins her home state, will she continue fighting until the California primary, which seems favourable to her, despite lagging behind Senators Brown and Warren?
Response from the Baldwin Campaign: Tammy Baldwin's goal right now is to convince the people of Wisconsin, who have sent her to the Senate twice, to support her for President. That is our current top priority.

  Senator Cory Booker- 0%

  Senator Al Franken- 0%

  Senator Ted Cruz- 0%

  Mayor Bill de Blasio- 0%

  Governor Kate Brown- 0%

  Senator Ron Wyden- 0%

  Governor Tom Wolf- 0%

  Senator Tammy Duckworth- 0%

  Senator Maria Cantwell- 0%

  Governor Andrew Cuomo- 0%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Nooo, Tammy!
Ah, well. Brown 2020!

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm supporting Brown, but... Go Warren! Contested Convention ftw!