Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread

[peterthlee]

Hey guys, to facilitate smooth management of electoral data about Hong Kong elections, all topics related will be covered in this megathread.
Hope this would be more user-friendly.

Background
Latest approval polling for leading political figures in Hong Kong
Approval rating of CE-elect Carrie Lam (I)
Approve: 46% (-1 compared with last time)
Disapprove: 45% (+1)
Net approval: +1
Popularity score: 54 (-2.7)

Approval rating of outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I)
Approve: 20% (-5)
Disapprove: 73%
Net approval: -53
Popularity score: 38.1 (-3.6)

Plunging popularity score of CY Leung is probably affected by the resurfacing of his UGL-gate. In the meantime, though Carrie Lam settled on unpopular incumbent Paul Chan as his financial chief, her popularity remains largely stable.

Approval rating of top 3 ministers:
Chief Secretary for administration Matthew Cheung: +17
Secretary of finance Paul Chan: -27
Secretary of Justice Rimsky Yuen: -5

Source: Pollster from the Faculty of Social Science, the University of Hong Kong

Upcoming Elections (with peterthlee's preliminary ratings)
1/ Likely Legislative Council by-elections (not later than March 2018 as of today)
Here we assume that only the Kowloon West and New Territories East constituencies will be contested. The constituencies involved and the ratings will be updated once the judicial reviews' results for the other 4 MPs' qualifications are handed down (case reference number: HCAL 223-226/2016). The elections are therefore assumed to be conducted in FPTP.

Kowloon West: likely pro-establishment pick-up
No energetic candidates from the non-establishments, likely splinter candidates from the localist and self-determinance camp, huge bench from the pro-establishments (DAB Yau Tsim Mong district council president Chris Ip, ex-Prez Chung Kong-mo and Sham Shui Po DC member Vincent Cheng are strong candidates).
Many localist and even those supporting Ex-Court of Appeal VP Woo Kwok-hing in the CE election are prone to defection, pushing the tide of pro-establishments to around 140-150K raw votes. Non-establishment is disorganized and they are heading to a historic humiliation there.

New Territories East: toss-up, tilt pro-establishment
Ex-MP Gary Fan (ND), who narrowly lost re-election in 2016, has been bleeding support to pro-estabishments as he pretends to be very adamant in running, antagonizing hardcore localists. His overconfidence could lead to him being caught sleepwalking if pro-establishments go with a strong candidate like ex-MP Wong Kwok-hing from FTU.

Both districts are non-establishment bastions (Kowloon West: 58-37 and New Territories East: 58-34 in 2016), but heavy pro-establishment trend in Kowloon West and discord between non-establishments could give pro-Est a golden opportunity.

2/ 2019 Local District Council elections:
Solid pro-establishment regardless of Carrie Lam's approval.

3/ 2020 Legislative Council general election
Will be updated with more clues added, probably after the 2018 by-elections.

[peterthlee]

They are covered in the introductory thread (thread #1).

[peterthlee]

Current political situation in Hong Kong:

(1) tightening grip by Beijing
In light of alarming pro-independence wave in Hong Kong, NPC President Zhang Dejiang vowed to exercise the Central government's full authority on Hong Kong. These include legislation screening, appointment of the CE, interpretation of the Basic Law, amongst others. The control by the central government is being stepped up to counter the spread of self-determination territory-wide.
His keynote speech stirred up a war of word between pro-establishments and non-establishments. Pro-establishments appreciate Zhang's utmost adamancy to safeguard Hong Kong's sovereignty, whilst non-establishments are freting that the Central government will expedite the process of legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law.

[peterthlee]

(2) internal tug-of-war between the executive and legislative branches


Outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I), who will have his mediocre term ending on 1 July, was alleged of manipulating a probe report concerning his possibly indecent transaction with the Australian UGL group involving 50 million HKD. The report was to be briefed by the vice-president of the probe committee commissioned by the Legislative Council, Holden Chow (DAB). Traces of amendments were discovered by the secretariat of the LegCo.

This stoked up a political roar between the CE and opposition lawmakers. Civic Party leader and MP for New Territories East Alvin Yeung demanded Leung's resignation, and they are actively propelling for an impeachment motion, slated for debate on 7 June.

On the other hand, the incumbent CE continuously points his finger to Kenneth Leung (PG), a pan-democratic standing committee member, accusing him of probable conflict of interest.

Holden Chow was heavily grilled by his fellows and stepped aside earlier.

Link to the photo attached

[peterthlee]

In the meantime, CE Leung Chun-ying (I) is scheduled to attend the legislature's grand hearing tomorrow (HKT).

This would be his last presence at the parliament before his departure on 1 July.

He is anticipated to be lambasted on his conspicuous relationship with the UGL conglomerate by the opposition parties. The affairs provoked the war of words between a pro-establishment columnist and the chief lecturer of the HKU Faculty of Law Eric Cheung, who reiterated that Leung shall be held accountable.

[peterthlee]

Outgoing CE Leung Chun-ying (I) was at the legislative body for his final grand hearing session before his term ceases.


He was grilled on his alleged UGL conspiracy by Democratic Party President and MP for Kowloon East Wu Chi-wai, as well as his fellow Lam Cheuk-ting. Lam blasted Leung as a 'human scum', while Leung refuted that Lam was spewing endless drivel and wasting his time slot.

Leung staunchly defended his position in the UGL affair, and describing the opposition MPs are sabotaging the session by focusing solely on this saga. Surprisingly, in the limelight, Kenneth Leung (PG), the Accounting Sector MP who has devoted much of his time investigating Leung's UGL-gate and earned Leung's reprisal to bring him to a libel lawsuit, averted the topic and turned his focus to Hong Kong's taxation basis.

He later commented that there will be many occasions that this topic will be brought to attention, so he spared his time.

Pro-establishment lawmakers were concerned about possible legal controversy surrounding the border checkpoint at West Kowloon HSR Terminus and universal pension scheme for the elderly. Wong Ting-kwong (DAB), MP representing the Import and Export sector, praised Leung of benefiting his sector by introducing plausible policies over his tenure.
***************************************************************************
The new poll released by HKU pollster is now updated in the introductory thread #1.

[peterthlee]

Leung's plummeting popularity is also reflected in the poll by the pro-Beijing Hong Kong Research Association, which is noted for its deviation from the HKU poll (it revealed Carrie Lam was up by 5 whilst HKU pollster was John Tsang up by middle double digits).

However, Leung was scored 2.19 in its final poll for the 4th government, out of a total score of 5. This is in line with the latest HKU poll (a popularity score of 38.1).

[peterthlee]

While CY Leung is embattled in his UGL-gate, his legal successor, Carrie Lam (I), has formed her cabinet.

All three incumbent leading secretaries will remain in their positions.
Despite her determinance to instil fresh recruits in her proposed cabinet, most of the preliminary cabinet members are promoted from the current government.

The shortlist of her team (in chinese version) is provided here.

Some of the finance oligarches' chiefs are reported that they are reluctant to join Lam's government; in such dire circumstances, she could only let Paul Chan to stay on.

[peterthlee]

A similar poll commissioned by the Asia-Pacific Research Department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong also found Leung's popularity alarming:
the popularity leveled at 39.2;
22.3% of the citizens were satisfied with the performance of the government, whilst 39.6% were dismayed.
Link to the photo attached

[peterthlee]

The legislature was debating on the motion of impeachment on CE Leung Chun-ying (I) yesterday.



Link to the photo attached

DAB President Starry Lee, who is a MP representing incumbent territory-wide District Council (II) constituency, blasted the opposition of being superficial and pretending to be a roadblock of Hong Kong's political development. She defended that her fellow Holden Chow only committed 'trivial' careless flaws, but the non-establishments are endeavoring to exaggerate it.

Civic Party present Alvin Yeung reiterated that Leung himself was no longer eligible to remain in office as he had breached political and ethical conventions. He stipulated that there shall be no room for him to mitigate his offence.

Leung, for his part, attended seminar on the Belt and Road Initiative yesterday, without responding to his second impeachment.

The parliament is still convening on the motion. A live broadcast is provided here (by a pro-democracy tabloid media).

[peterthlee]

I'm guessing the UGL scandal was stitched up by the CCP to throw 689/CYL under the bus? The timing of the revelation is too obvious.

Well, your guess could be right, but the truth is confidential.
Another factor might be related to some pro-Beijing affiliates, but these are all wild guesses.