Who will win Ohio?

[peterthlee]

Still betting for Clinton 52-45-3

[peterthlee]

A 447,841 vote and 8.07% margin for Trump in Ohio.

How was everyone so wrong about Ohio (polling, I mean)?

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I've heard some commentators say that the polls were right, after all, with Clinton's 2 - 3% national margin being close to reality.  But that conclusion overlooks how far off the polls were in OH, FL, NC, PA, MI, WI, IA, and probably in under-forecasting Clinton's 30% margin in California!  Yes, when all combined for a national margin, the polls look reasonable, but state-by-state, far off the mark in so many key states!

     It's notable that while the nationwide polls were pretty good, the state polls were well off-the-mark. Trump was underestimated in the Midwest and Clinton was underestimated on the Pacific Coast and the mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Nationally, this error basically averaged out.

Ja.