TX (UT/Tyler): Trump +4

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well Texas definitely will trend left relative to nation, and it's just a matter of time before it flips blue, it possibly voting to the left in NC, GA, AZ, MI in case of a Trump win isn't that far-fetched as some make us want to believe, since i don't think Trump can really improve a lot here, and the average still suggests a +6/+7 win.

But Texas is changing and that's good news for the Democrats.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Texas isn't flipping this year

Well this poll isn't suggesting that, it's still a Trump +4 win and i don't think we've seen a poll suggesting Biden would win TX so far yet.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

They're probably closer to the actual result this time around. But the poll has 13% for RFK jr., 6% for West and 3% for Stein. And arguably, Biden only is third among independents, i don't know how independents voted in 2020. But he only wins 17% of the 123 independents who answered the poll. A majority of the 123 independents polled don't back Biden or Trump.

I think polls really struggle with independents and some of the more low-information democratic leaning voters (young people, minority voters, urban demographics).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This pollster had an eight point D bias from RV to actual in both 2020 to 2022. Abbott +3 in RV right before the election and Biden +2 RV right before the election. I know plenty of bad R-leaning pollsters get engaged with here, but if they haven't changed their methodology this is almost certainly overrating Biden by quite a bit.

So Trump is on track to win Texas by 12 points?

No, but a Trump +7 YouGov poll is better for Biden than a Trump +4 UT Tyler poll. Trump's probably up by around 10 right now, given the national environment. YouGov did well in TX in 2022 and 2020, especially YouGov/University of Houston. They had Abbott +13 and Trump +5. They have Trump +9 now.

I think without the independents in the race, Biden would basically also tie Trump in this poll, so a 8 points error would suggest a Trump +8 result.

Like Allred vs Cruz which has no third parties in the races have a tie.

Though again, just like Biden, Allred wins 72% of Democratic respondents (Biden has 71). 39% of independents said not sure (which is the majority). 12% in total voted not sure and 7% voted undecided.

Who do independents lean towards in TX races usually?