Predict the margin in each of the following states:

[LAKISYLVANIA]

- Alaska (3): Trump +2
- Iowa (6): Trump +12
- Ohio (17): Trump +12
- Maine's second congressional district (1): Trump +6
- Texas (40): Trump +7
- Florida (30): Trump +12
- North Carolina (16): Trump +3
- Georgia (16): Biden +0
- Arizona (11): Biden +1
- Wisconsin (10): Trump +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +4
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +9
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1): Biden +3
- Minnesota (10): Biden +6
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +11
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +10
- Virginia (13): Biden +7
- New Mexico (5): Biden +10
- Colorado (10): Biden +14
- New Jersey (14): Biden +9
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15
- Illinois (19): Biden +16
- Delaware (3): Biden +17
- Washington state (12): Biden +18

[LAKISYLVANIA]

- Alaska (3): Trump +2
- Iowa (6): Trump +12
- Ohio (17): Trump +12
- Maine's second congressional district (1): Trump +6
- Texas (40): Trump +7
- Florida (30): Trump +12
- North Carolina (16): Trump +3
- Georgia (16): Biden +0
- Arizona (11): Biden +1
- Wisconsin (10): Trump +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +4
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +9
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1): Biden +3
- Minnesota (10): Biden +6
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +11
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +10
- Virginia (13): Biden +7
- New Mexico (5): Biden +10
- Colorado (10): Biden +14
- New Jersey (14): Biden +9
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15
- Illinois (19): Biden +16
- Delaware (3): Biden +17
- Washington state (12): Biden +18

Why do you think Jersey will be that close?

Mid-atlantic swing to the right
Certain demographics and suburban areas in New Jersey that worry me (the S019 kind of people)
2021 was a warning sign
Bad downballot candidates (no enthusiasm for Menendez except for mindless D voters)

The same mindless D voters will mean D's easily win as there will be virtually no campaigning, but Democrats will underperform here compare to other states. Some people in this area will vote with their wallet in mind (and flip Trump that way) and/or certain issues like critical race theory in schools etc. will flip some. NJ probably also is a bit more socially conservative than other areas (or at least the NJ suburbs more than other kind of suburbs, similarly to the NY suburbs like Staten Island and Long Island). Basically the Zeldin-Ciaterelli-Giulani-Youngkin kind of brand sells well here, and Trump fits well among that group.

New York and Virginia probably also trend right relative to the nation for similar reasons and North Carolina remains republican. However New York is a bit of a mixed bag, and New England/PA/MI will trend left probably (might depend from state to state in NE but NH will probably swing left).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I haven't really checked downballot candidates otherwise (or taken into account)

AZ: no effect (mixed bag, Gallego is a good democratic candidate, i suppose whoever the republicans nominate here might not be of help to Trump)

DE: Carper retires, so open, but overall safe enough

FL: I don't think Rick Scott might perform as well as DeSantis & Rubio do, and it's also an election year so maybe the +12 might have been too overestimated. Though Florida might be to the right of OH anyways because of Sherrod Brown on the ballot, but FL probably also has like higher presidential turnout. Depends also on how much resources the D's allocate to it or if they abandon sort of it (if they don't have a good senate candidate, they could as well not focus too much on it)

ME: DK if Angus King has an upballot effect, independent. I suppose there'll be King/Trump voters as well but mostly King/Biden as he caucuses with the Dems. Jared Golden is always of big help though.

MI: Open, so remains to be seen, but important election and the republicans don't really have a bench here and James is gonna stick to the seat he has now.

MN: Klobuchar, yeah that will be helpful to Biden, that seals the deal.

NV: I don't think Jacky Rosen is a very strong candidate, overall neutral effect, but probably again very narrow win, seems like NV might be more risky in an off-year election because 2022 wasn't really that good, though mostly the gubernational ones.

NJ: I don't think people care enough but Menendez isn't great

NM: Heinrich neutral

NY: Gillibrand really is helpful for boosting turnout

OH: Brown being up, means it'll be more contested than it would otherwise, maybe my +12 is too exaggerated but OH doesn't have that thing that in presidential years its more beneficial for the Dems than off-year ones. Though the opposite is no longer true either, ask Tim Ryan.

PA: Casey Jr. definitely of big help. The GOP might need McCormick to be nominated which looks might not be the case. PA in 2022 was horrible for the GOP. Fetterman winning by 5 despite attacks on his illness should've never happened.

TX: Fools gold for now, even though Cruz technically might be vulnerable.

VA: Kaine usually does well in elections

WI: Baldwin is also a good candidate, better than the other candidates i've experienced because she wins her elections and the other candidate usually doesn't. It's gonna be tricky though. WI has been disappointing and Biden only narrowly won it in 2020. Definitely the closest of the three rust belt states i believe.

WV and MT might also shift left tbh because of Manchin & Tester. Even though Manchin is done. Tester will probably be a similar result to Bullock, maybe slightly better. And Brown similar to Ryan but slightly better. In all these examples, the downballot candidates do better than Biden i think.

Peltola helps Biden a lot i think in Alaska, though I do believe given the nature of Alaska and it being split from the mainland and it having its own kind of culture & thing that it is perfectly reasonable to assume Peltola comfortably wins while Trump does as well, though with a large shift to the left.

I do think Trump winning Alaska will be by a more narrow margin than Peltola.

Aside of that, downballot candidates are great for the Dems.

NJ is one of those states that isn't, even compared to VA and NY. Trump probably also keeps NC (no senate election either here).

There are some unknowns though. Like is there split voting in WI. Does Baldwin go down if Trump wins the state. But the state might be close enough that even without much split voting Baldwin could hang on while Trump carries it. Baldwin also was up in 2012 and 2018, two solid years for the Dems (esp. 2018 in WI compared to 2016).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Tbh Wisconsin might go with Biden after all, i just don't know how the **** Ron Johnson won both of these two elections, and Trump also came very close in 2020. But Evers won pretty comfortably in 2022, by more than expected and Baldwin never is in problem here.

I suppose Feingold and Barnes were too left for the state or didn't have great campaigns. Or Ron Johnson has some appeal i don't get.

Trump probably lost a bit of his shine with this group of people, esp. the Trump of 2020 and 2024 or what the GOP is evolving into.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I haven't really checked downballot candidates otherwise (or taken into account)

AZ: no effect (mixed bag, Gallego is a good democratic candidate, i suppose whoever the republicans nominate here might not be of help to Trump)

DE: Carper retires, so open, but overall safe enough

FL: I don't think Rick Scott might perform as well as DeSantis & Rubio do, and it's also an election year so maybe the +12 might have been too overestimated. Though Florida might be to the right of OH anyways because of Sherrod Brown on the ballot, but FL probably also has like higher presidential turnout. Depends also on how much resources the D's allocate to it or if they abandon sort of it (if they don't have a good senate candidate, they could as well not focus too much on it)

ME: DK if Angus King has an upballot effect, independent. I suppose there'll be King/Trump voters as well but mostly King/Biden as he caucuses with the Dems. Jared Golden is always of big help though.

MI: Open, so remains to be seen, but important election and the republicans don't really have a bench here and James is gonna stick to the seat he has now.

MN: Klobuchar, yeah that will be helpful to Biden, that seals the deal.

NV: I don't think Jacky Rosen is a very strong candidate, overall neutral effect, but probably again very narrow win, seems like NV might be more risky in an off-year election because 2022 wasn't really that good, though mostly the gubernational ones.

NJ: I don't think people care enough but Menendez isn't great

NM: Heinrich neutral

NY: Gillibrand really is helpful for boosting turnout

OH: Brown being up, means it'll be more contested than it would otherwise, maybe my +12 is too exaggerated but OH doesn't have that thing that in presidential years its more beneficial for the Dems than off-year ones. Though the opposite is no longer true either, ask Tim Ryan.

PA: Casey Jr. definitely of big help. The GOP might need McCormick to be nominated which looks might not be the case. PA in 2022 was horrible for the GOP. Fetterman winning by 5 despite attacks on his illness should've never happened.

TX: Fools gold for now, even though Cruz technically might be vulnerable.

VA: Kaine usually does well in elections

WI: Baldwin is also a good candidate, better than the other candidates i've experienced because she wins her elections and the other candidate usually doesn't. It's gonna be tricky though. WI has been disappointing and Biden only narrowly won it in 2020. Definitely the closest of the three rust belt states i believe.

WV and MT might also shift left tbh because of Manchin & Tester. Even though Manchin is done. Tester will probably be a similar result to Bullock, maybe slightly better. And Brown similar to Ryan but slightly better. In all these examples, the downballot candidates do better than Biden i think.

Peltola helps Biden a lot i think in Alaska, though I do believe given the nature of Alaska and it being split from the mainland and it having its own kind of culture & thing that it is perfectly reasonable to assume Peltola comfortably wins while Trump does as well, though with a large shift to the left.

I do think Trump winning Alaska will be by a more narrow margin than Peltola.

Aside of that, downballot candidates are great for the Dems.

NJ is one of those states that isn't, even compared to VA and NY. Trump probably also keeps NC (no senate election either here).

There are some unknowns though. Like is there split voting in WI. Does Baldwin go down if Trump wins the state. But the state might be close enough that even without much split voting Baldwin could hang on while Trump carries it. Baldwin also was up in 2012 and 2018, two solid years for the Dems (esp. 2018 in WI compared to 2016).

Wouldn’t Mark Robinson on the ballot be a bit of a drag on Trump?

Who is Mark Robinson?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Just  look at  the vote  on  the proposition  today  in Ohio. The GOP (especially  the MAGA types) really wanted to  win  that one, in  an R-leaning state. Ohio  can swing  wildly, as  between 2012 and 2016.

At this point, I  may be  excessively cautious.

OH and WI  voted  7 points  apart  in 2016, and  all of  9 points  apart  in 2020. I'd be  quite surprised  if  that gap  somehow  managed to stay  below 11%  come  next year. The 3% you're suggesting  is  implausible, to say  the least.

So is  the 7-point gap  between WI and MI. They voted  0.5% apart  in 2016  and  well under 2% apart  in 2020. I'd expect MI to vote  under 0.2% to WI's right  in 2024, if  it  even does  at all.


With regard to  the OH margin, Trump's highly likely  to carry it  by double-digits  in 2024. I certainly can't see  it  dipping below  his repeated 8-point performance, let alone  a mere 2%.


Also, I'm pretty sure "the MAGA types" are actually the least socially conservative  major bloc  within  today's GOP electorate.

- Alaska (3): Trump +2
- Iowa (6): Trump +12
- Ohio (17): Trump +12
- Maine's second congressional district (1): Trump +6
- Texas (40): Trump +7
- Florida (30): Trump +12
- North Carolina (16): Trump +3
- Georgia (16): Biden +0
- Arizona (11): Biden +1
- Wisconsin (10): Trump +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +4
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +9
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1): Biden +3
- Minnesota (10): Biden +6
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +11
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +10
- Virginia (13): Biden +7
- New Mexico (5): Biden +10
- Colorado (10): Biden +14
- New Jersey (14): Biden +9
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15
- Illinois (19): Biden +16
- Delaware (3): Biden +17
- Washington state (12): Biden +18

NE-02 voting six points to MI's right? ME-AL and NH voting to VA's left? How come?

I do believe MI swings left heavily, while i don't think VA trends left this year.