LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,705
Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78
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« on: December 27, 2018, 04:49:17 PM » |
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« edited: December 27, 2018, 04:55:10 PM by Lakigigar »
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Beto is going to do best in Nevada, and possibly Iowa, with a respectable showing in New Hampshire, and than win Texas by a large margin.
Kamala is going to do best in South-Carolina, with a respectable showing in Iowa and Nevada and than needs to win by a large margin California
Biden probably best placed in Iowa, followed by NH and SC and than win the smaller Super Sunday states. He's favoured when Kamala or Booker aren't candidates, as that would make him front-runner in SC.
Sanders best placed in NH, but could do well in Iowa and Nevada too, with at least respectable showings, but i think he has the toughest path of all four main contendors i've named here, as he has a tough map on Super Sunday.
Other candidates probably need one or multiple candidates above not running, and would have to gain momentum through debates or coverage to have a shot. Warren's path includes winning NH and doing well in Iowa and Nevada (same path as Bernie). Klobuchar needs to win Iowa probably (or an upset there). Gillibrand's path might be the same as Warren's one. Low-profile candidates need to win Iowa (like Ojeda) or end at least as a close 2nd or 3rd. Bloomberg needs NH too. Booker respectable showings in IA and NH, and needs to win SC. Less sure about Gabbard's path, but probably respectable showings or maybe upset in IA and NH, followed by a respectable showing in NV or win.
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