What would Beto’s primary path be? (user search)
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  What would Beto’s primary path be? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would Beto’s primary path be?  (Read 1199 times)
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,726
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

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« on: November 22, 2018, 06:12:43 AM »
« edited: November 22, 2018, 06:17:20 AM by Lakigigar »


Red is Joe Biden, although Sherrod Brown could also fit the role pretty well. Old white guy #populist type, basically.

Green is Sanders, Yellow is Harris, and MA is Warren.



Wow, wait a minute. I think Biden will do better in states like Alabama and Arkansas than in "those red states", and Beto is definitely not going to win those states unless Biden drops out (and the AA candidate too), and Beto end up being the frontrunner, but i don't know when all the primaries are, and it's hard to take that in account, and create a map. Harris will win California and not Beto. (it's probably early in the primary season).

About Beto. I think he has a chance in NH depending on what the field might look like. It might also be critical to end second or third in those states, but Nevada seems like Beto's best early state (demographics similar to Texas, and Beto has lot of hispanic support, and Nevada has some progressives and rural areas too), but Las Vegas metropolitian area will probably go for Biden or Harris (if the latter one is at least the front runner among casual / modern liberals). Nevada isn't also far away from California.

Iowa might indeed be key to Beto. Iowa -> finishing 2nd in NH -> Nevada -> Winning Texas, and ending at least 2nd in California are critical. Depending on whether Sanders / Warren / different progressive are still in the race, he also might have to win Minnesota, Colorado (he definitely will do very well there), and potentially Vermont and Massachussets, maybe Virginia and maybe Oklahoma (esp. if Biden and Sanders dropped out of the race). I think Beto needs a lot of the progressive vote in order to win
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,726
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2018, 06:38:44 AM »
« Edited: November 22, 2018, 06:42:06 AM by Lakigigar »

My scenario:
Red = Kamala Harris
Green = Bernie Sanders
Blue = Beto O'Rourke
Yellow = Richard Ojeda
Grey = Elizabeth Warren

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