🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Extremely happy that SDP is going to win this. The Germans are making the right choice, punishing corrupt and elitarian boring politicians like Baerbock and Laschet, and going for someone competent, pragmatic and caring as Scholz. I certainly support SDP even if i didn't like them during most of my life.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The victories in Peru and Germany and the two Democratically elected senators in Georgia would single-handedly make 2021 not the worst year ever. Despite it being quite bad in terms of non-election events.

I know the election has yet to happen, but I think the only way from now on is up, because SPD is now seen as a viable candidate party, and given Scholz is very popular, and that many people have yet to decide. They probably break 30%. Some Greens and Linke voters might change from ship too, but we will see.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Latin America, Europe, the US…the political right is in shambles .

Australia, India, Israel, Canada, Poland, France, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Ecuador, Colombia, most of Eastern Europe? And even the US isn't really a valid example, with Biden double digits underwater. It's rather strange to try and paint some global picture when Germany, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Spain?, and New Zealand are the only examples of such a trend, and a good number of those countries are the result of left wing parties (ie the Greens) moving right.

??
I have absolutely no idea what criteria are you using, for both sides. But in any case, I think you are treating that comment way too seriously.

Australia -- Liberals won in 2019 unexpectedly. Not in disarray.

Canada -- Conservatives leading in polls

Colombia -- Conservative government/dominance for last 30 years

And Argentina and Spain I said were places where the right was in disarray, not places where it wasn't.

are the right leading in polls in spain though?

yes due to collapse of C's.

PP + Vox = 45% (with C's maybe 50%)
PSOE + Podemos = 35% (with Mas Pais maybe 40%).
Others are minor/regional parties at the moment.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

21% for AFD

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1675929481251266562

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Right now these are projection of the seats (by constituency).

Wahlkreisprognose 26 june

Union: 139 (-4)
SPD: 82 (-39)
Grüne: 19 (+3)
AFD: 57 (+41)
Linke: 2 (-1)
FDP: 0 (same)

election.de 23 june

Union: 189 (+46)
SPD: 48 (-73)
Grüne: 16 (same)
AFD: 43 (+27)
Linke: 3 (same)
FDP: 0 (same)

INSA is even more optimistic for Union.

acc to election.de's last poll

AfD:
Safe: 7 (+6)
Likely: 22 (+13)
Lean: 14 (+5)

SPD down from 30 safe seats to 2 safe seats and down to 18 likely seats (from 59).
Union up from 28 to 78 safe seats.

299 seats are awarded by FPTP constituencies. The others (about 300) through state lists. I think based on that Grand Union at this point still remains possible. CDU-FDP-Grüne probably too.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

AfD getting close in some states





But these are for state elections