Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[rones358]

Recent polls have shown Sergio Moro consolidating that third position, surpassing Ciro Gomes. I think he has the most room to grow.

[rones358]

I always thought the polling was wrong. I thought it was super questionable these polls that had the between 50-60% of the electorate with a household income of up to 2 minimum salaries when the latest study in 2021 by PNAD had the number at 41%. Bolsonaro was generally ahead in all other income categories with a household income above 2 minimum salaries. Additionally I thought the state polling was an absolute joke with Lula winning comfortable in states like Sao Paulo, Rio or Rio Grande do Sul.

However people that want to see Bolsonaro defeated need not despair, this is a classic case of falling below expectations in terms of the margin, but if the goal was to beat Bolsonaro, that is still very likely to happen. Lula is more likely to increase his lead (slightly) in the 2nd round than lose it.

The congress that its been elected is pretty conservative, and the governors outside of the North East are predominantly allied to Bolsonaro. Lula is very much likely to win in the 2nd round but he will have a very hostile congress and will have to govern a lot more moderate than many of his supporters would like. This is going to be a challenge.

[rones358]

Did crime actually decrease under Bolsonaro?

Yes, the murder rate is at its lowest point in about 30 years. It hasn't fallen by that much in he North East. However public safety is more a function of state and local politics than the federal government.

[rones358]

New Parana Pesquisas Poll. This pollster was the most accurate in the first round.

Total votes
Lula 46,9
Bolsonaro 44,5
Branco/Nulo: 5
Undecided: 3,6

Valid VotesLula
51,3 (-0,6)
Bosonaro 48,7 (+0,6)