2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[Mike88]

Does anyone have any TV links for the results coverage which aren't geoblocked?

Many thanks!

DC

More live feeds:

[Mike88]

Quite a dramatic turnaround compared with the previous election. Labour loses 23.4% of the vote, while the Nationals gain 13.7%. All minor parties also gain votes from Labour.

[Mike88]

The newshub election coverage closing was weird... xD

[Mike88]

The big story of course is what happened to Labour-this has to be a record vote loss both in New Zealand and even would stand out internationally.

Looking in general, Labour's vote loss seems to be in the top 5 of the largest incumbent party falls in a western-style democracy, with the 2012 Greek PASOK sinking, the 1982 Spanish UCD bang and the 1993 Canadian PC collapse on 1st, 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. In 4th, you have the 2010 Hungarian MSZP result.

[Mike88]

The big story of course is what happened to Labour-this has to be a record vote loss both in New Zealand and even would stand out internationally.

Looking in general, Labour's vote loss seems to be in the top 5 of the largest incumbent party falls in a western-style democracy, with the 2012 Greek PASOK sinking, the 1982 Spanish UCD bang and the 1993 Canadian PC collapse on 1st, 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. In 4th, you have the 2010 Hungarian MSZP result.

Here in Canada, the John Diefenbaker Progressive Conservative government didn't lose in 1962, but in 1958 it won 208 out of 265 seats, and in 1962 was reduced to a minoroty of 116 of 265 seats.

Or maybe even more to the point (if not on a '93 Kim Campbell level), the Libs went from 147 out of 282 under Trudeau in '80, to 40 out of 282 under John Turner in '84.

Of course, things can go even more extreme in provincial legislatures: the ruling provincial PCs being wiped out in a full-house Lib sweep in New Brunswick in '87 (and likewise in PEI in '35); the ruling BC NDP being reduced to 2 seats in '01, the BC Socreds reduced to 7 seats and 3rd place in '91, the Ontario Liberals reduced to 8 seats and 3rd place in '18...

I wrote about vote share changes. In the 5 cases I posted, the vote share falls were above 20%. In 1962, the PC lost 16% of the votes, and in 1984, the Liberals lost also 16%.

[Mike88]

The final results are expected to be published this Friday, 3 November. We'll see if NAT+ACT will be enough for a majority or will Peters be needed.

[Mike88]

And here it is. What cabinet post will Peters ask for? Foreign Affairs again?