🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[Mike88]

Finally, a nationwide tally. 30.5% counted

41.1% ND
20.1% Syriza
12.7% PASOK
  6.7% KKE
  4.5% EL
  2.9% NIKH
  2.6% PE
  2.3% MeRA25

[Mike88]

With the votes counted, the seat projection:

145 ND
  71 Syriza
  44 PASOK
  24 KKE
  16 EL

[Mike88]

What is NIKH? They have close to the 3% threshold but I can't find any information about them.

Democratic Patriotic Movement - NIKH. I assume it's a right wing party.

[Mike88]

While the lead will narrow as more of Athens get reported it is a clear of rejection of Tsipras. He has to go.

The problem for Syriza is that the repeat election will be in a month and a half. They are basically stuck with him until then.

[Mike88]

I believe this is the final projection, just released, by the Electoral Commission:

41.0% ND, 146 seats
20.0% Syriza, 71
11.7% PASOK, 42
  7.2% KKE, 25
  4.5% EL, 16
  2.9% NIKH
  2.8% PE
  2.5% MeRA25
  7.4% Others

But, I'm not sure. I not fluent in Greek, to say the least.

[Mike88]

Is a ND-EL coalition possible? Although there is very little incentive for ND to form a coalition when they can get a majority of their own in July.

I think you just answered your own question.

Yeah, after this massive result, I would guess that both ND and PASOK would want an election repeat. PASOK can even see themselves surpassing Syriza after these results.

[Mike88]

Syriza is only leading in Rodopi. The rest is a sea of blue:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1660349624790425602

[Mike88]

It seems that ND is floating the idea to do a repeat election on 25 June. In just over a month. We'll see.

[Mike88]

What a terrible result for Syriza, which may lose every single district to ND. Also not a great day for Greek opinion polls.

Is Rodopi the only possible exception because it's where the remaining Muslim Turks live?

To be fair to polling companies, there were a lot of undecideds during the last days of the campaign. I would say that Tsipras "ridiculous" remarks in the last few days may had been the nail in the coffin, and that may have swayed tons of voters to scrap Syriza.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 60.02%, with 83.07% counted. Higher than expected.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 60.02%, with 83.07% counted. Higher than expected.

About the same as last time.

Tsipras just said that there is no time to change before the next elections.
His refusal to resign might doom SYRIZA to 3rd.

Greece back to basis.

[Mike88]

PASOK should agree to merge (or "form a united front") with SYRIZA under the sole condition that Tsipras resigns and a leadership election is held or some sort of collective leadership is instituted.

It's the only way for the Greek Left to suceed.

Why would PASOK even think of some kind of deal with Syriza if they have a clear shot of becoming, once again, one of the two major parties in Greek politics? Plus, there is a cliff of differences between both parties and don't forget about Tsipras ego, he's not one to bow down easily.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1660696073562669083

The repeat election will probably be called between Wednesday and Friday. Curious to know who will be nominated as interim PM. Maybe a Supreme Court judge?

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1660927936038334465

Elections are basically set for 25 June.

[Mike88]

First poll after last Sunday's election, from Kapa Research:

Vote share (%):

41.3% ND (+0.5)
19.5% Syriza (-0.5)
14.4% PASOK (+2.9)
  7.2% KKE (nc)
  4.6% EL (+0.1)
  3.9% PE (+1.0)
  3.5% NIKI (+0.6)
  2.0% MeRA25 (-0.6)
  3.6% Others (-3.9)

Poll conducted between 22 and 23 May 2023. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.00%.

On election day, Kapa Research did an exit poll of its own and the results were somewhat similar with the final ones: 40-43 ND; 21-24 Syriza; 11.5-13.5 PASOK.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1661309349308801029

It's official now.

[Mike88]

No one is pointing that out, but the Greek Ecologists had a massive surge of 100% in this election. From 0 votes in 2019 to... 1 vote last Sunday. Tremendous.

[Mike88]

What is the sticking out white bit?

Mount Athos. It's an area with several Eastern Orthodox monasteries and they are governed by monks and respond only to the Patriarchate of Constantinople. Also, women are forbidden to enter in Mount Athos.

[Mike88]

I read it in the Greek Elects twitter page. Why were pollsters afraid of being bullied by Syriza if they showed the real voting intentions rather than the ones they presented that overestimated the party?

[Mike88]

National Creation (ED) has been dissolved. It polled at some point between 1-2%, but it ended with just 0.8%. It is now asking their voters to vote ND.

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1663515267710763015

My hunch is that number of parties running will probably decrease in the repeat election.

[Mike88]

New poll:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1664355117049454592

[Mike88]

And the economy hasn't slid into a recession by any definition. A couple of days ago it was announced that it grew 2.1% in the 2Q.

In the 1st Quarter of 2023, the Greek economy grew 2.1% annually, compared with the Q1 2022, but dropped to -0.1% compared with the Q4 of 2022. It is not, for now, in a "technical recession" situation, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

More in here: https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/greece

[Mike88]

My hunch is that number of parties running will probably decrease in the repeat election.

Not that much, from 36 lists in the May election to 33 in the the June election:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1666871996569866241

[Mike88]

Latest poll by GPO:

44.5% ND (+0.6)
18.9% Syriza (-2.0)
12.4% PASOK (+0.2)
  6.9% KKE (nc)
  3.7% EL (+0.5)
  3.7% PE (-1.0)
  3.1% NIKI (-0.5)
  2.7% MeRA25 (+0.5)
  2.2% Spartans (new)
  1.9% Others (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 12 and 14 June 2023.

[Mike88]

  2.2% Spartans (new)

Spartans is a far-right party supported by former Golden Dawn leaders:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1666873069678231559