🇬🇷 Greek politics and elections

[Mike88]

If the Center-Left has 151 seats after the 1st election they will probably form a government.

In a 2nd election they will all lose a lot of seats, and all will be in a worse negotiating position vs Mitsotakis.

That is a big incentive.

And unlike in Portugal, the Office of the Presidency in Greece is just a "cosmetic flower pot", that is also unpopular, so it plays no role. (most greeks I suspect would gladly vote to abolish it, to save money and avoid embarrassment)

I see. Well, to be honest, and to not derail this topic with "Portugalization", after an election, the President here has little power in reality. He nominates a PM "based on the election results", but Parliament can always force him to pick another PM, just look what happened in late 2015. Adding to the fact that the law forbids any dissolution of Parliament six months after the swearing in of a new one, plus, "Presidential appointed governments" are basically impossible in the current system, so in a deadlock situation, the country would get a lame duck government for more than half a year. But, I understand what you mean.

[Mike88]

Yeah, I would assume that the current PASOK voter base is basically elderly, that is still reminiscent of the "glory days" of Andreas governments.

Also, is this having any impact in the campaign?:
https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1647993762667274246

[Mike88]

Wait, the woman in question is Eleni Chronopoulou, right? She was Nikos Androulakis ex-girlfriend? I'm not finding that anywhere.

[Mike88]

Here is a Bonus:

Varoufakis has published his Plan B for Greece to leave the Eurozone, with just an 8 year delay after the deadline of the summer of 2015, called Plan Dimitra (why call it Dimitra ?):

https://hellas.postsen.com/local/310203/Varoufakis-I-hope-we-don%E2%80%99t-go-to-the-drachma-%E2%80%93-If-necessary-we-will-be-paid%E2%80%A6-with-DIMITRA.html

Basically government issued crypto.

He's still defending that?? God...

[Mike88]

New poll:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1655276972954603522

[Mike88]

Apathy is so great that most people have forgotten there is an election, which is a first in my memory.

Most MP's struggle to attract a crowd of a dozen people, even Mitsotakis struggles to get a crowd of more than a thousand even in the largest towns in his rallies, the other party leaders are faring even worse.

So another record low turnout is a very strong possibility, turnout has been gradually declining since 2009 as people become more disappointed.

A few campaign rallies/"events" by the different parties:

ND - New Democracy:

Syriza:

PASOK:

KKE - Communist Party:
https://twitter.com/gt_kke/status/1654925960548892672

MeRA25:
https://twitter.com/mera25_gr/status/1655638711973953537

EL - Greek Solution
https://twitter.com/velopky/status/1655605401545592834

Indeed, not the crowds of past elections...

[Mike88]

Worst PASOK poll since October 2021:

https://twitter.com/GreeceElects/status/1658924646714990595

[Mike88]

Last campaign rallies/events of the main parties:

ND - New Democracy

Syriza:

PASOK:

KKE - Communist Party

MeRA25:

[Mike88]

Tsipras is so desperate and so shameless that he literally begged publicly the former Golden Dawn voters to vote SYRIZA this time because they are both anti-establishment parties.
Now tell me again that the horseshoe theory is wrong.

Tsipras statement on Golden Dawn voters:

Our goal is for those people who would vote for Golden Dawn, to take them, to win them back from far-right and anti-democratic ideology and attitudes, and explain to them that it is not an anti-systemic thing to vote for Golden Dawn.

At the same time, he's also trying to win votes from ND and PASOK voters.

[Mike88]

Polls close at 7 PM, right?
And

https://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/home/en/

is still the link to results right?

Any links to live streams ?

So far, I found the Open TV live feed to start during election day:
 
Open TV

But, other live feeds could appear during the day.

[Mike88]

So, election day is here:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1660133315100196867

Until 1pm, around 31.5% of voters had cast a ballot.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: Until 5pm, 48.8% of voters had already cast a ballot.

K.O.T.E.S. (Chickens) which stands for Kapnistikes Omades gia tin Tehni kai thn Eikastiki Sigkrotisi (Smoking Groups for Art and Visual Composition)

Love the party's logo.

[Mike88]

Updated live TV feeds:

Open TV:

[Mike88]

In the Aljazeera live update, their correspondant on the ground says that party sources are telling him that exit polls are giving a very strong ND result and that the margin between ND and Syriza could be larger than expected.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: Until 5pm, 48.8% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Looks like the pre crisis period of 70%+ turnout are long gone.  I guess the crisis plus economic contraction turned off a bunch of voters from the process. 

Maybe the final turnout will be similar with the 2019 one, we'll see. I believe that in the past, voting was mandatory but there were no real penalties for not voting. Nowadays, I believe that was revoked and, of course, the last decade events have taken a tool in the electorate's view of the political system and class.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: Until 5pm, 48.8% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Looks like the pre crisis period of 70%+ turnout are long gone.  I guess the crisis plus economic contraction turned off a bunch of voters from the process. 

Maybe the final turnout will be similar with the 2019 one, we'll see. I believe that in the past, voting was mandatory but there were no real penalties for not voting. Nowadays, I believe that was revoked and, of course, the last decade events have taken a tool in the electorate's view of the political system and class.

Let's not forget that the number of registered voters is grossly inflated. There are people who have died five and ten years ago but their names still haven't been purged from the voter rolls.

Indeed, but the numbers of voters turning out to vote have decreased a lot in the last elections. Until 2009, the 7 million voters mark was easily surpassed and nowadays that's just a mirage.

[Mike88]

Turnout update: Until 5pm, 48.8% of voters had already cast a ballot.

Looks like the pre crisis period of 70%+ turnout are long gone.  I guess the crisis plus economic contraction turned off a bunch of voters from the process. 

Maybe the final turnout will be similar with the 2019 one, we'll see. I believe that in the past, voting was mandatory but there were no real penalties for not voting. Nowadays, I believe that was revoked and, of course, the last decade events have taken a tool in the electorate's view of the political system and class.

Let's not forget that the number of registered voters is grossly inflated. There are people who have died five and ten years ago but their names still haven't been purged from the voter rolls.

Indeed, but the numbers of voters turning out to vote have decreased a lot in the last elections. Until 2009, the 7 million voters mark was easily surpassed and nowadays that's just a mirage.

You wouldn't believe the partisan fervor this country experienced from the 70's to the mid-90's.
Now people are much cooler when it comes to politics.

Of course. I saw videos of the rallies of both PASOK and ND in the 80's, 90's even in the early 2000's and they were massive and it was clear the fervor and excitement from both sides.

[Mike88]

One hour until polls close and exit polls are released.

[Mike88]

Exit poll:

36.0-40.0% ND
25.0-29.0% Syriza
  9.5-12.5% PASOK
    6.0-8.0% KKE
    3.5-5.5% EL
    2.5-4.5% MeRA25
    2.2-4.2% PE

121 ND
  86 Syriza
  35 PASOK
  22 KKE
  15 EL
  11 MeRA25
  10 PE

[Mike88]

So repeat elections it is.

Yep. 2 July is the most widely expected date for the repeat election.

[Mike88]

Question: Looking at previous election results, why are KKE so strong in the islands?

Tradition.

Doesn't the civil war be one of the reasons for it? I don't know, just asking.

[Mike88]

So far, only district results are being published. But, you know it's bad for Syriza when, with the current counting, the whole of Crete is painted with ND blue.

[Mike88]

Based on initial results does it look like PE will cross the 3% threshold?

I would say probably, with the precincts so far counted in both Athens and Thessaloniki, PE is polling at around 3-4%. But, it's still early and we don't have a nationwide picture yet.

[Mike88]

Updated exit poll:

Exit poll:

37.5-41.5% ND
23.5-27.5% Syriza
11.5-12.5% PASOK
    6.5-7.5% KKE
    4.3-5.3% EL
    2.5-3.5% MeRA25
    2.5-3.5% PE
    2.5-3.5% NIKH

[Mike88]

So far, only district results are being published. But, you know it's bad for Syriza when, with the current counting, the whole of Crete is painted with ND blue.

PASOK is doing very well there, they've overtaken SYRIZA in two of the four districts. Not too surprising but still interesting.

Indeed. With the current trends, PASOK could only poll behind Syriza in Chania. In Heraklion, both are neck and neck.

And in several rural districts, PASOK and Syriza are quite close. PASOK is even leading Syriza in a few, so far, of course.