Israel General Discussion: Annus Horribilis

[Mike88]

Update: Netanyahu has fired Aryeh Deri from cabinet.

[Mike88]

Panels Politics poll: (compared with the last poll)

27 Yesh Atid (nc)
26 Likud (-5)
19 National Unity (+4)
10 Shas (+1)
  7 Otzma Yehudit (-1)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  5 RZP (nc)
  5 Yisrael Beiteinu (nc)
  5 Labor (+1)
  5 Hadash–Ta'al (+1)
  4 Meretz (-1)

55 Netanyahu Cabinet (-5)
55 Yesh Atid+National Unity+Labor+Meretz (+4)
  5 Yisrael Beiteinu (nc)
  5 Hadash–Ta'al (+1)

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1629428939725631490

[Mike88]

The most surprising thing is that even with all of the protests, divisions and the complete trainwreck management of the approval of this bill, Netanyahu would probably still win a snap election, according to polls.

Of course, in an election period everything would, probably, be different but it speaks volumes that, currently, the Opposition is just not capable to form an alternative to Bibi Netanyahu.

[Mike88]

The most surprising thing is that even with all of the protests, divisions and the complete trainwreck management of the approval of this bill, Netanyahu would probably still win a snap election, according to polls.

Of course, in an election period everything would, probably, be different but it speaks volumes that, currently, the Opposition is just not capable to form an alternative to Bibi Netanyahu.

Literally not true, all you have to do is check Wiki.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

I checked Logical. Likud still has an edge in seats over Yesh Atid, albeit one poll puts YA one seat ahead of Likud. But, even if the sum of the rightwing parties is, in general, bellow the majority threshold, an Opposition alternative, between YA, National Unity, Labor, Meretz, YB and the Arabs parties, would be very difficult to reach. Just look at the example of the previous government. For a strong alternative, one the main opposition parties, probably Yesh Atid, has to surge ahead of Likud by a lot.

[Mike88]

Gantz is now surging in the latest polls:

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1640475187886866434
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1640478804291485696

[Mike88]

New poll: Gantz party now tied with Likud. YA falls to 3rd place.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1644327849581764608

[Mike88]

Bibi's U-turn: Netanyahu "re-hires" Yoav Gallant as Defense Minister.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1645537053499871232

[Mike88]

The first poll after the start of the Israeli-Hamas war:

Lazar poll for Maariv newspaper:

41 National Unity (+12)
19 Likud (-9)
15 Yesh Atid (-1)
  7 Shas (-3)
  7 UTJ (nc)
  6 YB (nc)
  6 Meretz (+2)
  5 Ra'am (nc)
  5 Hadash (nc)
  5 Otzma Yehudit (+1)
  4 Mafdal–RZP (-2)

Poll conducted between 11 and 12 October 2023. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Well, that's him told.

Initial predictions that everybody would rally round Bibi because of this were wide of the mark.Is it not impossible that something similar is happening in Gaza?

This is an encouraging sign, but (as with his previous electoral defeats) it’s way too early to call time on his career.

Putin’s popularity has also gone up and down over the course of the war. If Israel achieves something Netanyahu can sell as victory, or if its population is brutalised by a months-long conflict in which he remains at the helm, it seems possible he comes out on top.

This is why the unity government is a trap option - if he is to serve in one, he must not do so as its premier.

Didn't the fall out from the Yom Kippur War result in gains for the right. I think Israeli politics works different especially when there was a massive security failure (which Netenahyu prides him self)

There's a lot of interviews with people on the street blaming Netenahyu for the security failure, that Egypt warn him and that he neglected it. I've seen many of them in the coverage of the war.

[Mike88]

Why did New Hope splitted from National Unity?

[Mike88]

Benny now calls for snap elections in September:

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1775607801911370040