Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[Mike88]

Eish... 53% don't know who to vote. This election will be very, very difficult to predict, especially with the mandatory voting thing.

[Mike88]

Polling, with just 2 weeks from the election, still shows massive undecided voters numbers. I believe the voting is mandatory, right?

Kaoras or Lumine, any updates from the campaign and possible trends? Even though the undecided numbers are massive which pretty much means the race is still wide open.

[Mike88]

That Partner 305 poll seems sketchy. Never heard of that polling company. But, even looking at that poll, the rightwing would almost win a 2/3 majority... That would be quite a turnaround.

[Mike88]

That Partner 305 poll seems sketchy. Never heard of that polling company. But, even looking at that poll, the rightwing would almost win a 2/3 majority... That would be quite a turnaround.

The government and the left are signaling to the press that "defeat is inevitable" and that the opposition will likely get over 3/5, probably based on those leaked polls. The political effect of the Left not having veto power in the council itself will remain the same, however at least the government will see it coming, unlike the plebiscite when they were delusional until the end. Apparently Apruebo Dignidad is preparing for a "Nigh of the long knives". AD wants to punish PPD for not running a joint list and recover influence within the government.

On the grassroot level, there is some panic with calls to not spoil the ballots and to vote for the Unidad para Chile list, but I think is too little too late. Although the PDG scandal could be a very good thing for the left in the north because it reduces the risk that they are shut out of seats.

That means, then, that a possible new Constitution draft will probably be a copypaste of the current one. Or even worse, due to the increase of the Republican Party. However, not sure if the Republicans and Chile Seguro will be able to agree on anything.

[Mike88]

T13 channel quick counting of the Magallanes region is the following, so far:

26.8% Republicanos
22.5% Unidad Chile
15.5% Chile Seguro
12.7% Todo por Chile
  4.2% Partido de la Gente
18.3% Independents

[Mike88]

So, far, and if I did my math is right, in Boric's precinct, 35% of votes are either Blank or Invalid.

[Mike88]

The count is finalized in Boric's precinct. The Republicanos are the most voted list. 60 invalid ballots here.

[Mike88]

First results from SERVEL are being reported, just 0.03%:

34.1% Republicanos
22.3% Unidad pr Chile
15.8% Chile Seguro
13.5% Todo por Chile
  4.3% Partido de la Gente
10.0% Independents

24.1% Blank/Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

We'll keep you updated Kaoras. Have fun at the count.

[Mike88]

According to a reporter, it seems that many, many voters voted in their preferred candidate of each of the 6 lists on the ballot and thus, invalidated their ballots.

[Mike88]

According to a reporter, it seems that many, many voters voted in their preferred candidate of each of the 6 lists on the ballot and thus, invalidated their ballots.

Lol, that meant that they fully intended to vote null.

Probably.

[Mike88]

Around 9 million votes expected, with the current trends. Could change with more data.

[Mike88]

7.81% counted:

36.2% Republicanos
26.2% Unidad pr Chile
22.0% Chile Seguro
  9.5% Todo por Chile
  5.2% Partido de la Gente
  1.0% Independents

21.3% Blank/Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

Almost 20% counted and it's 36% Republicanos, 27% UpCh and 22% ChS.

If the trend continues the rightwing could get a 2/3 majority in the Constitutional Council. Wow!

[Mike88]

Well... I mean, it sure beats the dark days of 2021, but this can't be good.

I don't think I ever wondered how a Republican-written Constitution would actually look like, because with this result they really can't drop things and pretend it's not their problem. It's all but theirs to write.

Could it be that nothing changes? I mean, I also have no idea what the Republicans want to put in the Constitution, but could they force the current one with no changes? Like the saying goes, everything changes just to remain the same.

[Mike88]

Pundits are now arguing that the Republicanos may have peaked too early, as the Convention has no real political power and that the question is if the Republicanos can hold on to this "wave" until 2025.

[Mike88]

45.96% counted:

35.8% Republicanos
27.7% Unidad para Chile
21.6% Chile Seguro
  9.1% Todo por Chile
  5.3% Partido de la Gente
  0.5% Independents

21.2% Blank/Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

Unidade para Chile has surpassed the Republicanos in the Santiago Metropolitan area by 959 votes, with 38.73% counted.

[Mike88]

Around 9 million votes expected, with the current trends. Could change with more data.

New update now says 11 million votes, around 80% turnout.

[Mike88]

And UpCh got the Tarapacá seat, there won't be more changes. REP 22, UpCh 17, ChS 11 and one Indigenous representative.

No 2/3 majority then.

[Mike88]

And UpCh got the Tarapacá seat, there won't be more changes. REP 22, UpCh 17, ChS 11 and one Indigenous representative.

No 2/3 majority then.

The threshold to approve articles is 3/5ths this time, so the right doesn't really need to reach 2/3rds. The left is still without effective veto power under those numbers.

Ah, right. Well then, that complicates things for the left.

[Mike88]

90.68% counted:

35.5% Republicanos
28.3% Unidad para Chile
21.2% Chile Seguro
  9.0% Todo por Chile
  5.4% Partido de la Gente
  0.5% Independents

21.4% Blank/Invalid ballots

[Mike88]

Results by party so far, 90.68% counted:

35.5% PLR
  9.0% UDI
  7.9% PCCh
  7.5% RN
  6.0% PS
  5.7% CS
  5.4% PDG
  4.8% Evopoli
  4.4% RD
  3.8% PDC
  3.6% PPD
  2.1% Comunes
  1.6% PR
  1.2% PL
  1.1% FRVS
  0.1% AH
  0.5% Independents

[Mike88]

I may be unjust in my opinion, but Boric's speech could be summed up on this: "He talked a lot and said nothing."

[Mike88]

So Chileans want a new constitution, but they just don't want the new constitutions made by the people they voted for?

Pretty much. It's like ordering a pizza but not wanting to be made by the pizzeria.