Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[Mike88]

At the same time, UNITA's press conference has just started and the UNITA spokesperson is saying that their internal counting says that UNITA is leading and "on course to winning".

UNITA is also saying that in several polling stations, MPLA staff are refusing to sign results certificates or tearing them up because they are showing UNITA in the lead.

[Mike88]

If the election was partially free, with reasonable campaign coverage and with a transparent Electoral Commission, UNITA would win easily. But, everything in Angola, from the Courts to the Electoral counting is totally controlled by MPLA and they are not willing to accept defeat or lose power.

No one was expecting anything but this outcome as, like I said, MPLA controls everything and is not willing to accept democratic rules.

[Mike88]

Clashes between Police and Angolan voters in front of the Angolan Consulate in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/angolanboy_/status/1562600790250115072

According to the Lisbon Police, several people were throwing rocks against a bus that was transporting embassy workers. In the video, protesters are shouting "They are running away with our votes". Results from Portugal weren't posted outside the Embassy, which infuriated voters. The police, however, didn't arrest anyone.

[Mike88]

Ok.  So it has been 9 hours since the first batch of results.  Surely some more votes have been counted since then whose tallies CNE can report?

Nothing yet. It seems that CNE had a press conference schedule for around a hour ago, but it's being delayed and delayed.

[Mike88]

CNE just announced new results: (86.41% of polling places reporting)

52.1% MPLA
43.0% UNITA
  1.2% PRS
  1.1% FNLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.7% CASA-CE
  0.5% APN
  0.4% P-NJANGO

[Mike88]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

[Mike88]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

Massive poverty and unemployment is eroding MPLA's support in urban areas. Plus, almost 60% of Angola's population is bellow 25 years old and they live, in their majority, in urban areas.

[Mike88]

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

Yes, Luanda is a very expensive city and that status masks a complete lack of infrastructures from roads, hospitals, sewage systems and job opportunities, among others. Several "businesses" that the Eduardo dos Santos clan made in Luanda were to build modern high-rise skyscrapers and luxury resorts in the city. Some, however, didn't went ahead.

[Mike88]

Given that Luanda count is lower than the overall count it seems UNITA's vote share will only rise from here.  They will not win but their vote share will be a record for them and break the ~40% vote they got in 1992.

That seems plausible and the results match almost that "poll" that TPA announced yesterday's evening. However, these results are a disaster for MPLA, even though there are doubts about their reliability. MPLA lost their 2/3 majority and could even win a majority just by a "hair". Like I said in previous posts, if this election had a decent coverage and opportunities for both sides, MPLA would lose.

[Mike88]

Ballots by party: (86.41% reporting)

2,872,603 MPLA
2,370,543 UNITA
     65,208 PRS
     59,082 FNLA
     56,531 PHA
     40,757 CASA-CE
     26,930 APN
     23,672 P-NJANGO

5,515,326 Total

Source: https://twitter.com/infogovao/status/1562760146018635781

Not sure how many ballots are yet to be reported from Luanda or from the rest of the country.

[Mike88]

A few clashes between protesters and police are being reported in the streets of Luanda:

https://twitter.com/wamadjiwanna_/status/1562754579946938368

According to CNN Portugal, a spontaneous protest erupted in the streets of downtown Luanda but it was received bu robber bullets and tear gas by the police.

UNITA is set to have another press conference during this afternoon, and I heard on TVI, if I recall correctly, that CNE is expected to release the final results at around 8pm this evening. We'll see.

[Mike88]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:

After minute 16:28.

115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

[Mike88]

Official results page from CNE:

https://resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

Cabinda is the place with the lowest vote reporting: just 21.7%. Here, MPLA leads UNITA by just 95 votes. Maybe 128,000 ballots to be reported.

In Luanda, looking at the turnout and the number of precincts yet to report, I would say around 500,000 ballots are yet to be released.

In Bié, 13% is yet to be counted, maybe around 50,000 ballots. In Huíla, 12% is yet to be counted, around 60,000 ballots. In Cuando Cubango, 11% is out, around 15,000 ballots. In Moxico, 10% is also out, around 21,000 ballots and in Uíge, around 37,000 ballots are out there. In the rest of provinces, 95%+ of votes are now tabulated.

It's also surprising how low turnout is being, just 46%.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

[Mike88]

Popular vote: 97.03% counted

3,162,801 MPLA
2,727,885 UNITA
     70,398 PRS
     65,223 FNLA
     63,002 PHA
     46,750 CASA-CE
     29,740 APN
     26,268 P-NJANGO

6,192,067 Total

[Mike88]

One should never discount the possibility of electoral rigging in countries like this. The opaque counting process makes it all the more suspect.

I don't disagree, at least here. But then that raises the question - why would they let their majority get so small? Especially with the slow vote count. It would be easy to inflate that margin and make it more comfortable if they wanted, right? Instead of, say, MPLA with a mere 52-53% of seats.

Vote rigging may have occurred, when results are announced like this, it's complicated to see if they 100% reliable. However, like I said in posts above, there was election fraud in the way that MPLA basically forbid opposition campaign events to be broadcast and publish in the media, so the opposition had never an equal ground with the government party. MPLA, with all of this control and hold of institutions, winning just 51% is a victory is a big, big setback, to say the least.

[Mike88]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Maybe, the electoral page has frozen and doesn't have the new updates yet. Also, I believe it was you that said this election was similar to the Zimbabwe 2018, well, the results literally mirror each other:

Angola 2022:

51.1% MPLA
44.1% UNITA

Zimbabwe 2018:

51.4% ZANU–PF
45.1% MDC–T

[Mike88]

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Luanda still has 6% out there, maybe 140,000 ballots, UNITA could still close the gap yet.

Maybe the low MPLA vote share is a way for the MPLA to signal to the opposition parties, especially UNITA, the following: OK, please let us be in charge for 5 more years without a fuss. We are going to be reasonable and make sure you get a share of the loot instead of us hogging everything.  And 5 years from now we promise to give you a real shot a winning,

We'll have to see, but I'm not 100% sure that MPLA will understand what happened in this election. They still have a majority and their reaction is that they have a confortable majority to govern "without constraints". This is not the best thing to say after a very close election like this one. UNITA is silent right now, as the party is conducting their own counting and is maybe wanting to finalize it and then react. So, this could take a while.

[Mike88]

Another interesting data: Since 2008, MPLA has lost around 10% of votes in each election:

2008: 81.6%
2012: 71.8% (-9.8%)
2017: 61.1% (-10.7%)
2022: 51.1% (-10.0% provisional)

UNITA 2008-2022:

2008: 10.4%
2012: 18.7% (+8.3%)
2017: 26.7% (+8.0%)
2022: 44.1% (+17.4% provisional)

[Mike88]

Presumably a narrow majority is still a big problem for the MPLA, because that means they only need a few MPs who are close to the Dos Santos than to Lourenco to cause problems.

Not sure, because MPLA MPs were hand picked by Lourenço, so they are from his line of the party. That doesn't mean, of course, that others within the party will not criticize Lourenço during his term and create tensions within the party.

The MPLA opposition, in Parliament, now has 43% of seats and 47% of the votes. PHA is anti-UNITA and some accused them of being a satelite party of MPLA. MPLA controls everything in the State, from committees to Courts, everything, and UNITA with 90 seats would be entitled to some power in Parliament. It will be interesting to see what MPLA will due, but I'm not optimistic, like I wrote in a previous post.

Also, we need to wait and see the final results. The mood is tense as both MPLA and UNITA are quite silent and analysing the situation.

[Mike88]

This was a bit expected. The mood is tense and we'll have to see how this pans out. UNITA proposes an international committee to analyse the results, but the party also showed some votes of their parallel counting in which they accuse the CNE of "brutal discrepancies":

- In Luanda, CNE says UNITA has 1,230,213, while UNITA's counting has them at 1,417,447;

- In Moxico, CNE says that UNITA has 45,058 votes with 95% of the precincts counted, but UNITA says that their count has them at 61,378 with just 79% reporting;

- And in Cuanza Sul, UNITA says that MPLA only has 154,628 votes, while CNE has MPLA at 233,160 votes;

[Mike88]

Today, starts the funeral of José Eduardo dos Santos, in the middle of a tense post-election mood. Few people are following the funeral procession, looking at TV images. Several foreign leaders, like the President of Portugal Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, are present in the funeral.

At the same time, several protests against the election results are schedule for today. We'll see how they unwind.

[Mike88]

None or few protests happened yesterday nor are more expected for today. Luanda is seeing a massive police presence across the city, and, according to TV coverage, people step back and avoided protesting. However, a few protesters were arrested.

Regarding the results, CNE says that some changes could happen as they are analysing the contested votes, but added that no party has entered, so far, with a formal complaint. UNITA is saying this isn't true and that they have already sent a formal complaint to CNE.

[Mike88]

CNE approved the final results, but UNITA continues to reject them:

The Electoral Commission approved, this morning, the final results of last week's general election. The CNE analysed just 11,153 contested ballots and only 7,925 were accepted, with MPLA winning the majority of them. CNE will now send a certificate to the President of the Republic and the Constitutional Court, and the parties will have 72 hours to contest the results. The final tally will be announced later this afternoon.

UNITA is rejecting the results and is considering challenging the results and adds that people are free to protest and that any violence is full responsibility of the government.

Tension is still high and during this morning, police arrested several citizens which where waiting for a press conference of an association which is protesting against the results. The police forbid people from people attending that area.