🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: The party will meet on Monday to discuss Joacine Katar Moreira's position as MP.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1221040934491693059

A week after the tumultuous party congress, the party leadership will meet to discuss the future of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP. The meeting will be held Monday night and a decision will be made in that same meeting. At the same time, Joacine Katar Moreira is already planning her future outside Livre: she is developing a website where she will update her work as a MP. For now, that's her plans.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: According to Expresso newspaper, the mood in the congress hall is very favourable towards Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", the right-wing leader of the CDS' youth wing. However many highprofile CDS members are giving their support to João Almeida, current MP and spokesperson of leader Assunção Cristas.

Vote to be held during the evening, early hours.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1221388887634993152

"CDS will be the right arm of the Portuguese". The moment when Chicão knew he won:

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader of CDS after his motion to the congress was the most voted. 1,445 delegates voted and the results were the following:

46.4% Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos
38.9% João Almeida
14.5% Filipe Lobo d' Ávila

The vote was just for motions, not the leadership, but João Almeida conceded defeat and congratulated Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. This is a right-wing turn for CDS after many years of evolving into a moderate Christian democratic party. Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", is 31 years old and will become the youngest party leader in recent Portuguese history.

[Mike88]

First controversy in the CDS congress: New leadership team, led, and proposed, by Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, has no women.

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: Meeting to decide Joacine Katar Moreira's future postponed for Thursday, due to "procedural issues".

[Mike88]

Controversy between CHEGA and Livre: André Ventura asks for Joacine Katar Moreira to be "returned" to her country of birth after she proposed a bill that would provide for the return of heritage of museums to former colonies.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1222208186125602817

André Ventura "proposes" that Joacine "be returned to her country of origin". Livre complaints of racism:

André Ventura is under fire, today, after commenting on social media about a new bill proposed by Livre MP Joacine Katar Moreira. Ms Moreira bill proposes that former colonies heritages, currently displayed in Portuguese museums, should be returned to their country of origin. André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was quick to comment this on social media, saying that "MP Joacine should be returned to her country of origin". This comment is being criticized almost by everyone, and Livre is accusing Ventura of racism. However, Joacine Katar Moreira has yet to comment on Ventura statement.

This is the 2nd time, just this week, that Ventura and CHEGA are surrounded in controversy. During the weekend, on social media, a video of a CHEGA rally in Porto city showed at least one CHEGA supporter doing the Nazi salute during the national anthem. Ventura was forced to repudiate his supporter gesture and that he realized it on the rally and felt uncomfortable.

[Mike88]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.

About IL, they are pretty irrelevant right now. CHEGA, I'm not that sure. They appeal to a big chunk of the conservative electorate that was always very muted and voted heavily on CDS, and some also on the PSD. Now, and because CDS is completely off the rails, they feel more comfortable in CHEGA, as the party is pro-life, anti-gay rights/marriage, and very populist against corruption and "socialism". The anti-corruption in CHEGA is very hypocritical, but everyone knows that.

Everthing points that there will be a battle on the rightwing of Portuguese politics between CHEGA and CDS. The new CDS leadership is very similar to CHEGA's rhetoric and there will be a fight for that electorate.

[Mike88]

War of words between PS and PSD because of the Social Democrats proposal to reduce to 6% VAT on electricity:

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1222259469054365696

Centeno accuses PSD of making illegal proposal to lower VAT on electricity.

All of the parties represented in Parliament submitted, until yesterday, a record 1,300 changes to the 2020 budget. The PSD, the main opposition party, proposed a cut in VAT on electricity, from the current 23% to 6%, starting in July with a cost of 175 million euros, and with that being balanced with cuts in governmental management. The PS is criticizing this proposal saying it's illegal and would cost 700 million euros, although this figure has changed some times. The PSD responded saying that Mário Centeno should put all the card in table and prove the VAT cut is illegal and they accused Centeno and the PS of making stuff up and of acting like if he's the "owner of all this".

Nonetheless, the possibility of the VAT cut passing is real, as BE and CDU have similar proposals and both say they are willing to vote a reduction. The main doubt is will there be a common bill between PSD/BE/CDU.

[Mike88]

"Negative coalition" between PSD/BE/CDU to lower VAT on electricity looming:

The BE announced today that they will vote in favour of any bill that lowers VAT on electricity for families, accusing the PS of governing with "blackmail and intransigence". The PSD and CDU haven't announced how they will vote, but it's becoming more and more possible the likelyhood of PSD/BE/CDU coalition, which IL and CDS could be part of it to, against the PS minority government. Costa is attacking those who want to pursue this policy. In a speech to PS MPs, Costa said that some people are in a hurry to bring down the government and the VAT reduction is unfair, and bad for the environment.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1222590753605672960

António Costa criticizes PSD proposal to reduce VAT on electricity.

Rui Rio, PSD leader, responded to the PM, on twitter, accusing him of making up illegalities:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1222584628239896578

It seems to Mr PM that the alleged illegality depends on who proposes it and not on the measure itself. Yesterday, Minister Mário Centeno seemed to follow the same line of thought, only with much less discursive competence.

In other news, the CHEGA-Livre controversy continues. Ventura is being heavily criticized by the left and the right for his comments, and some parties, like PS and BE, will present votes in Parliament to condemn his remarks. Ventura himself, however, is doing some TV interviews and isn't retracting a single word of his statement:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1222619344187904001

Videos - "If we are so racist, what is she doing here?": André Ventura after suggesting the deportation of Joacine Katar Moreira

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM:

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.1)
  1.9% CDS (-2.0)
  1.7% Livre (+0.6)
  5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Another controversy on CDS: New deputy leader, Abel Matos Santos, praised Salazar, the former secret police PIDE and criticized Aristides Sousa Mendes on social media.

https://twitter.com/itwitting/status/1222833601030520833

Abel Matos Santos. PIDE was "one of the best police forces in the world"

The new CDS leadership is involved in another controversy. This time, some media outlets found, on the Facebook page of CDS's new deputy leader Abel Matos Santos, several posts were he praised former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar saying he was one the best Portuguese ever, hailed PIDE as "one of the world's best police forces" as they only harass communists and those who attempted against the State, and defined Aristides de Sousa Mendes as a "Jewish moneylender". He accuses the media of decontextualize his words.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM:

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.1)
  1.9% CDS (-2.0)
  1.7% Livre (+0.6)
  5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Wow, big yikes for CDS. Is this the end of CDS? They would be dead as the dodo if they drop that low. May as well merge with Chega or PSD honestly.

On that note also surprised to see Chega that high. Any talks of putting a "cordon sanitaire" on them? Or would PSD reach a deal easily with them?

CDS is in fact going to through a rough time, However, the poll was conducted before the CDS elected its new leader, but, to be honest, I doubt that would make any difference as the party is still divided, many CDS moderate members are already saying bad things about the new leader, and there are already 2 controversies surrounding him, just in one week. If CDS would to merge, which is very unlikely, it would be with PSD, not CHEGA. CHEGA, right now, is literally enemy nº1 of CDS, as Ventura has stolen the hard line conservative electorate from CDS.

Right now, on the center-right, the PSD has a carefull approach towards CHEGA. Rio isn't antagonizing CHEGA and avoids being involved in their controversy. The left, however, attacks constantly Ventura and CHEGA.

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: Joacine Katar Moreira loses support of Livre but will remain as a non-registered MP:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1223175982175137792

Livre Assembly removes confidence in Joacine Katar Moreira:

It was expected, but now it's confirmed. Joacine Katar Moreira will no longer represent Livre in Parliament, but will remain as a non-registered MP. Livre loses parliamentary representation, but will continue to receive public funding, as the party got more than the required 50,000 votes in October, but Joacine Katar Moreira MP funding will be cut from 117,000 euros to 57,000 euros per year.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %:

68.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)
  8.7% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  7.4% Marisa Matias (BE)
  3.2% Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
  1.6% Carlos César (PS)
10.6% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Note: Carlos César, Jerónimo de Sousa, Marisa Matias and André Ventura are hypothetical candidates for the moment.

[Mike88]

Euthanasia approval likely: Parliament will vote on February 20th as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1222877508875386881

Euthanasia: Parliament schedules debate for February 20

After the failed vote of 2018, Euthanasia could become legal in Portugal. Parliament has schedule a vote on the legalization of Euthanasia on 20 February, as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it. These 4 parties/coalition have a total 143 seats, more than enough to pass a bill. On the right, PSD leader Rui Rio will give freedom of vote to PSD MPs. Rio himself is in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia. The Liberal Initiative could also present a bill to legalize and monitor euthanasia practices in Portugal. The only parties totally against are CDS and CHEGA, which only have 6 seats in Parliament. However, it's expected that a big portion of the PSD caucus will vote against any legalization of euthanasia.

[Mike88]

Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.

Yes, previous polling showed that legalization of Euthanasia was approved by a considerable part of the electorate, and even in the PSD, although their electorate is divided, the legalization of euthanasia has a lot of support, almost half. I myself as a PSD voter, approve the legalization of euthanasia. About marijuana, it could also pass in the future as the PSD, I believe in 2018, voted in congress a motion to legalize marijuana. We'll see.

A side note: The most curious vote will be the VAT on electricity in the next few days. PSD, BE, CDU, and maybe CDS, want to lower it from 23% to 6% and, according to the media, the PSD is analyzing the possibility of increasing VAT on hotels in order to please BE and for their cuts in government management be accepted by BE and CDU. I'm skeptical that anything will pass, but what would be Costa's reaction, if this goes ahead? He cannot force a political crisis as parliament can only be dissolved until May. Or could this accelerate Mario Centeno's exit from the government earlier than expected?

[Mike88]

2020 Budget final vote: VAT cut on electricity likely to fail as PSD budget cuts aren't supported by BE/CDU:

Parliament is voting, bill by bill, the final draft of the 2020 budget. So far, some bills will be added to the budget against the wishes of the PS, but the main one, VAT cut on electricity, might fail. According to last weekend's press, the PSD was willing to increase some taxes, on the environment f.e., to please BE and CDU, but either they retracted or used the media just for spin, as the party says that they will not propose any tax hike. The PSD proposed cuts in government services were struck down by PS, BE and CDU, but the PSD says that they will fight for VAT cut until the last minute.

A number of bill passed during the afternoon:

- Extra increase of pension, of 10 euros per month, for those who earn at least 658 euros of pension;
- A CHEGA bill was passed, with the votes of PSD, BE, PAN and CDS to force the government to publish, every 3 months, a list of all institutions, public and private, funded by the government;
- A PSD bill giving university teachers the "full restoration" of their frozen career progressions, approved by PSD, BE, CDU and PAN;
- Extra financing of Lusa, the main news agency in Portugal, by 1,5 million euros, after the PS flip flopped their vote;

Other bills were struck down:

- Joacine Katar Moreira's bill of giving back all former colonies patrimony to their respective countries was struck down with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS, CH and IL;
- A PSD bill failed by just one vote as André Ventura, CHEGA MP, arrived late. The PSD bill was to stop funding cuts to Foundation of Science and Technology;

[Mike88]

Tancos air base scandal trial begins: Judge says he's perplexed by the different versions of the Tancos case.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1224432566779797509

Tancos case. Azeredo Lopes heard of a manufactured call and did not report.

Former Defense Minister Azeredo Lopes assumes he was aware that the weapons of Tancos' storerooms were found following a manufactured call, SIC said.

Argued in the process, Azeredo Lopes was heard this Monday by the investigating judge, Carlos Alexandre.

The former defense minister said he did not inform the authorities about the staging because he had no duty to do so, SIC said.

[Mike88]

Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job.

Joacine Katar Moreira leaves Livre for good. She announced she handed over her party membership card and becomes a full Independent MP.

Also, there seems to be a small revolt in the PS caucus regarding VAT on bullfights. The plan to increase VAT from 6% to 23% in bullfights events is creating a bad mood in the PS caucus, as 38 MPs are totally against the policy but are forced to vote in favour as the party is forcing vote discipline, meaning that any MP that violates the order could be punished. However, they say that this matter will not end here.

[Mike88]

2020 budget vote: Huge tensions regarding VAT on electricity and the vote against a circular line in Lisbon's subway:

It's still ongoing, but the day was full of tensions. VAT on electricity and the cancellation of a new circular line of Lisbon's subway created a huge moments of tensions between the PS and the opposition, but especially with the PSD. First the subway vote. The government was planning to change the map of the Lisbon subway to create a circular line and this line would force the construction of 3 new underground station in the center of Lisbon. The leftwing parties proposed a bill to cancell the line and it was approved by all the opposition parties, which infuriated the PS. The parliament is then advising the government to expand the subway to the northen suburbs of Lisbon. The PS is furious and accuses the parties, especially the PSD, of irresponsibility and of jeopardizing almost 100 million euros in EU funds and say they will send the bill to the Constitutional Court.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1225145990769971215

Politics - PSD's proposal to lower VAT on light should fail. PCP will abstain

Then, VAT on electricity. Until today, everyone though the bill was dead, but the PSD changed its bill and gained the support of BE, CDS, CHEGA and IL. The PS is, once again, furious with the PSD accusing them of being irresponsible and of making the governance of the country chaotic. But, a breaking development arised, as PCP will abstain in the PSD vote meaning that VAT reduction could still fail. We'll see.

https://twitter.com/semanariov/status/1225142051085389824

Tancos: António Costa may have violated justice secrecy. Carlos Alexandre informs the DA office.

Costa is also in hot waters today, as he delivered his responses to the Tancos scandal judge... but posted them on twitter. The judge is very upset with the Prime Minister and says that Costa could have violated justice secrecy and will send this to the DA office for investigation.

[Mike88]

2020 budget: Tense final vote as PSD tried to pass their VAT cut on electricity, but PCP and CDS saved the government.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1225716968210092032

High voltage led electricity VAT decrease to suffer blackout in Budget vote.

The PSD last minute change seemed, according to the media, to put the government in panic mode. The PSD gained the support of BE, CHEGA and IL, and was supposedly from the CDS, but we'll get to that. PCP was the big doubt but in the last minute, they voted against the PSD demands of lowering the tax only in October 2020, and the PSD withdrew their bill. But, the big surprise was the CDS position as they abstained in the vote, killing the PSD tax cut and helping the government. Rio himself accused the CDS of now helping Costa and being an "ally of the PS". In fact, according to this weekend's media, Costa talked with the new CDS leader during the VAT Parliament debate and they the PS gave the CDS their approval for a CDS bill in exchange of a CDS abstention in the PSD VAT tax cut.

In the end, the 2020 budget was approved with the PS votes, while the leftwing parties, BE and CDU, abstained and PSD, CDS, CHEGA and IL voted against. This time the 3 PSD Madeira MPs voted against the budget.

[Mike88]

PSD national congress starts in Viana do Castelo city:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1226100371623251969

The PSD national congress started yesterday evening in Viana do Castelo city. Rui Rio opened the congress with a speech where he highlighted the biggest challenge the PSD faces right now: the 2021 midterm local elections. He said it's very important for the party to win a lot of cities and councillors to have then a good momentum to win the next general elections. He asked for loyalty and credibility from party members and defined the PSD as not rigthwing or leftwing, but a centrist party that represents all people. He also said he's willing to lead a rightwing front against the PS.

The congress is expected to be quite boring and without many surprises. Rio's opponents in the primaries, a few weeks ago, will speak today.

[Mike88]

New polling.

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (+0.2)
26.7% PSD (+0.2)
  9.0% BE (-0.6)
  6.5% CDU (-0.1)
  3.3% CDS (-0.2)
  3.1% PAN (-0.5)
  2.5% CHEGA (+0.3)
  1.1% IL (-0.2)
  0.5% Livre (-0.1)
  9.9% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 2 and 6 February 2020. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on Rui Rio's leadership:

Q1: Do you think Rui Rio is the best candidate to face the PS in the next general election?

41.2% Yes
40.4% No
18.4% Undecided

Q2: Do you think Rio will last as PSD leader until the next general election?

61.6% Yes
21.0% No
17.4% Undecided

Q3: What do you think is best for the PSD right now?

44.6% Rio as PSD leader
33.1% Someone else as leader
  8.9% Pedro Passos Coelho as leader

Q4: About Rio's main challenger, Luís Montenegro, what do you think about his future?

44.1% Still has a shot in leading the PSD
35.7% His political career is over
20.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

JUST IN: André Ventura, CHEGA leader, announces his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic in 2021.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1226134342268637184

MP criticizes Marcelo's silence on topics such as fighting corruption and says that the current President of the Republic is the "face" of the system.

The leader of Chega, André Ventura, announced this Saturday that he will run for President of the Republic in the January 2021 elections.

In a video released by TVI24, Ventura states that he will not suspend his MP mandate in the Assembly of the Republic and admits losing the presidential candidacy.

The deputy justifies the entry into the race to Belém with "the silence" of the current President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in the face of the "big problems" that Portugal faces.

[Mike88]

Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.