Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Mike88]

It will be interesting to see how Benny Gantz will position himself in these elections: Will he run? Run in his own party? or join Yesh Atid, for example?

The latest poll, the Midgam one, shows Gantz with growing support and the main challenger of Netanyahu:

28 Likud
16 Gantz Party
13 Yesh Atid
12 The Joint (Arab) List
10 Zionist Union
  9 Bayit Yehudi
  7 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
  6 Yisrael Beitenu
  5 Kulanu
  5 Shas
  5 Orly Levy
  4 Meretz

60 Current Right-Religious Coalition
60 Current Center-Left-Arab Opposition

[Mike88]

This election is shaping up to be a "walk in the park" for Netanyahu.

Anyway, interesting graph, i found, about the history of Israeli elections since 1949:

[Mike88]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?  

[Mike88]

I read something that Gantz was accused by a woman of sexual harassment. How is the media reporting, or are they dismissing it as a "non story"?

Also, this election seems to have a lot of "2015 election" vibes. I mean, Bibi is the underdog, like in 2015, faces a major center-left coalition, like in 2015, and seems to have everything against him, like in 2015. Is it possible that Bibi figure could polarize almost every rightwing votes in Likud and put Shas, UTJ and other rightwing forces under water?

The media isn't reporting it much and the consensus seems to be that the allegations are false.

And let me note- no one thought Bibi was the underdog in 2015. The ZU was only norrowly leading him in the polls and there wasn't really ever a danger he'd not be able to build a right wing government. The big story was just that the left had at least some measure of hope.

Yeah, i meant that he was defeatable in 2015 and that he used that "status" to rally support even on election day, like that famous video when he said that Arabs were voting in droves.

Like Oryxslayer said, the rightwing could be fearing a centralization of votes in Likud, as they seem to be losing some moderate voters who had enough of Netanyahu. He could persue the same tactic, of 2015, of fear mongering on election eve to rally up rightwing voters around Likud.

[Mike88]

Almost 3 hours after polls closed. Why is ballot counting so slow in Israel?

[Mike88]

Isn't Likud headquarters in the same place of the ZU HQ in 2015?

[Mike88]

Votes Counted: 828K
Likud:                29.15%
blue and white:  25.27%
Shas:                 6.08%
Beitenu:             5.29%
UTJ:                   5.01%
Labor:                4.55%
Kulanu:              3.75%
United Right:      3.5%
            Threshold
Meretz:              3.19%
New Right:         3.08%
Hadash:             2.21%
RAAM BALAD:    2.8%
Zehut:               2.71%
Gesher:             1.8%

Seat allocation with these results counted:

43 Likud
38 Blue and White:
  9 Shas                
  7 Beitenu         
  7 UTJ               
  6 Labor            
  5 Kulanu             
  5 United Right    

[Mike88]

There is a lot of talk lately about a secular national unity government with Liberman and Kaholavan. It's not clear if there's anything to those rumors, but apparently Lapid and Liberman, who actually share many of the same core political priorities, met in Europe to discuss a unity government. Liberman has definitely been acting a little strange since the election, not at all embracing the idea of entering into another religious-right coalition with the Haredim. So we'll see if there's anything to this.

The political weakness for the right wing in Israel has always been its reliance on religious parties in an very secular country. A lot of what the Likud does, even the ugly stuff like the nation-state law, is fairly popular. But settlers and the Haredim are some of the most disliked groups in Israeli society and especially politics. The majority of Israelis share almost none of Haredi political priorities (huge majorities support civil marriage, separation of religion and state, breaking up the chief rabbinate, public transit on Saturday, drafting Haredim, gay rights, etc). At some point people are going to get tired of their Likud votes empowering Haredim.

Also, both UTJ leader Yaakov Litzman and Aryeh Deri (of Shas)  are likely to be indicted within the next year for crimes arguably more serious than Netanyahu's.  I never thought we'd get to the point where Liberman is the least corrupt leader in government, but, alas. In any case, the Haredim are loyal coalition partners but they are very unpopular and Liberman seems pretty tired of dealing with them. So it's possible that Bibi could use Liberman's intransigence as a ruse for bringing Kaholavan into to the coalition. It would also be massively among the public.

Who is Kaholavan?

Kahol Lavan is the Blue and White coalition, i assume.