🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Mike88]

First poll after the Scholz announcement:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1293537329601273856

[Mike88]

If the Union drops below 30% in September, it's actually possible another government is able to gain a political and mathematical majority. Six months of course is a long time and politics, but the CDU/CSU corruption scandals keep popping up and people get increasingly frustrated with the pandemic missmanagement. And latter especially with the leadership from Union politicans both federal and at the state level.

The SPD just needs a few more points to overtake the Greens to make Olaf Scholz chancellor and either form a red-red-green or (preferably in my opinion) trafficlight coalition. Scholz can make a real case that he's a pragmatic and experienced leader while neither Habeck nor Baerbock come close to his resume as former Labor Minister, First Mayor of Hamburg and now Finance Minister.

I think CDU/CSU desperately need to go back into opposition. They have no new ideas for the future, especially in areas in which we're lagging behind. Not to mention their corruption issues that have revealed deep seated structural problems. A traffic light coalition, despite the differences between SPD/Greens and FDP, could set new impulses in securing social safety in the era of globalization and bringing together environmental protection and sound economic policies paired with a pro-EU, reliable foreign policy.

Well, 16 years is a long time, indeed, but I think that if the Union, in 3 months time, continues bellow 30%, they will deploy Markus Söder as Chancellor candidate and dump Laschet's dream of being the main candidate. But, I would be fine with Olaf Scholz being Chancellor, he seems moderate and has also been in government for a while so he could continue many of Merkel's positions in Germany and the EU.

[Mike88]

The other scenario, with Söder as Chancellor candidate, CDU/CSU crushes it with 38%, 19 points ahead of SPD:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1383105688717639680

The Union and FDP would have 46% in this scenario, would that be enough for a majority?

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384550418026573832

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384603909306691590

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

True, but it still covers the trainwreck nomination process by CDU.

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

True, but it still covers the trainwreck nomination process by CDU.

Yes, but ignoring who a clear majority of voters, and almost certainly also party members and MPs, wanted is a far more decisive event. I doubt the nomination process itself would have influenced the polls much if they had allowed their parliamentary group to elect Söder. The result of the nomination process (the candidate) matters far more than the process, only media types and political junkies really care about the procedure, most ordinary people don't.

Fair point. However, I believe that if even Söder was the nominee, the CDU/CSU would probably take a hit as it was a complicated nomination. However, here's the INSA poll, conducted on the same day as the Forsa poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384605081446801417

[Mike88]

Yikes, SPD at 13%...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1386065566377680897

[Mike88]

Who are the 8-10% sonstige who seem to crop up in most polls voting for?

Most of them intend to vote in the Free Voters (FW), a liberal party that focus on regional issues. Some polls put them somewhere between 3-4%.

[Mike88]

Just 2 % points now separating CDU/CSU from SPD:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1427854413876576257

[Mike88]

Kantar poll: (compared with the last poll)

22% CDU/CSU (nc)
21% SPD (+2)
19% Grüne (-2)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (nc)
  7% Linke (nc)
  8% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 August 2021. Polled 1,920 votes.

[Mike88]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

[Mike88]

What? The Social Democrats are surging big league? And I thought the CDU would rule Germany forever. Is this just because Mr. Laschet is a horrible candidate?

Mainly yes and also because Scholz is seen as a competent Finance minister and the more likely "heir" of Merkel's policies in German's voters minds, according to polling.

[Mike88]

Interestingly, most pundits think that this was a good night for Laschet and a solid night for Scholz. Very weird statement given the post-debate Forsa poll. This somehow worries me that the Forsa poll might have been a fluke, but this would not be the first time in this election cycle in which German political punditry--which is absolutely full of itself--makes wrong predictions.

I think that is common in all countries. Pundits barely get one right because, at least that the case in my country, almost half of them are failed politicians who never won or achieve anything.

Anyway, there are still 3 debates left, one of them with the 6 parties. The last one is one 23 September, just 3 days before election date. Because of postal voting, this debate may be a bit worthless... When is the deadline to submit postal voting?

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1432790985092829191

[Mike88]

Wahlkreisprognose is still a highly questionable pollster with an intransparent methodology. Their results are really lopsided compared to other polls, although the Scholzmentum is visible throughout the polling landscape.

I had a hunch about what you said about Wahlkreisprognose, but I was afraid I was confusing with Forschungsgruppe Wahle.

[Mike88]

GMS poll:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

25% SPD (+10)
23% CDU/CSU (-7)
17% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (+1)
  6% Linke (-1)
  6% Others (-2)

Poll conducted between 1 and 6 September 2021. Polled 1,004 voters.

[Mike88]

Two weeks left, and the momentum is still all for SPD. Quoting Dan Rather: "This is one of the greatest comebacks since Lazarus".

Curiously this can also apply for the Union if they, for some weird reason, come back from the dead. But, that seems very unlikely now.

[Mike88]

Just saw this report:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1435934784488939524

German prosecutors raided the federal finance and justice ministries in Berlin as part of a probe into whether officials at an anti-money laundering unit failed to handle cases correctly.

The investigation is looking into whether officials at the Financial Intelligence Unit -- part of the finance ministry under Social Democrat chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz -- failed to act on money-laundering warnings they received from banks, prosecutors in the city of Osnabrueck said Thursday in an emailed statement.

This comes at a sensitive point for Scholz, who opinion polls suggest has a good chance of becoming Germany’s next chancellor after the Sept. 26 election. The finance ministry has been under scrutiny for the failings of its agencies, FIU and BaFin, to detect the Wirecard AG scandal.

Germany has come under repeated pressure from international organizations, like the OECD, and transparency campaigners that say the country massively failed to comply with anti-money laundering standards. The demise of Wirecard last year increased these worries as allegations emerged that the company was heavily involved in whitewashing money from illicit sources.

This seems to have been already in the headlines, but could it hurt Scholz or at least halt his momentum? However, I'm not sure how the CDU/CSU could attack him on this because, well, CDU/CSU are also in government.

[Mike88]

Congrats, Laschet.


https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-olaf-scholz-pressured-over-money-laundering-probe/a-59147944

As of now, I am still skeptical that this incident will derail Scholz' campaign, but I could see the unstoppable surge coming to an end and SPD stabilizing at ~25 % unless some more scandals break out.

I posted yesterday about that, and said CDU/CSU attacking Scholz on this would be complicated. I mean, at the end of the day Scholz was a minister in a government headed by a CDU/CSU chancellor.

[Mike88]

Does Germany also have the famous "reflection day ", where there's no campaign, publication of polls, etc?

[Mike88]

Does Germany also have the famous "reflection day ", where there's no campaign, publication of polls, etc?

Not really in that sense, today is the final day of campaigning and well, tomorrow is election day. I am not sure if pre-election polls are allowed to be published on election day, at least no reputable pollster does that.

Nevertheless, Germany is quite strict when it comes to publishing preliminary results of post-election exit polls. Anyone who publishes those (they have some level of uncertainty, especially now with increased postal voting) can be fined with up to 50,000 €. It happens undercover though, since the party leadership gets access to the data - I had also received leaked exit poll data of the 2018 elections in Hesse and Bavaria, which was somewhat accurate.

Postal voting increasingly becomes a strategical challenge for pollsters, and right now there is a pending lawsuit on whether pollsters are allowed to ask the respondents whether they have already voted by mail and if yes, for whom two days ago, a court ruled that they are allowed to include postal voting in their questionnaires. Opponents of this method argue that this violates one of the constitutional election principles, secrecy.

Right, so today is a normal campaign day. The criticisms of those who oppose questioning voters who cast a ballot by mail, doesn't make sense, IMO. If this violates secrecy, then asking people as they leave their polling station "Who did you vote for?" in order to make an exit poll, also violates secrecy.

[Mike88]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

[Mike88]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

Newspaper TAZ just posted a meme with the picture saying "don't worry guys, Laschet isn't aiming to become polling station volunteer, just chancellor."

Thank God for that.

[Mike88]

Polls close in about 3 hours from now, right?

[Mike88]

These Germans are in the paleolithic... they use paper ballots!

A lot of European countries do, including Britain.

From my recollection, the Swedish ballots are even more insane.

Here we are given 3 ballots today for the local elections.