Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Mike88]

Bloomberg : "In a joint statement following a meeting in Sardinia, Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi ruled out the possibility of the two right-center-parties remaining in the governing coalition, which included the Five Star Movement."

So, it's over. Snap election during October are almost certain.

[Mike88]

The Italian government colapses on the same day the ECB plans to increase interest rates by more than expected. Plus, 10 year bonds for southern european countries are already surging: Italy at 3.63%, Greece at 3.61%, Spain at 2.52% and Portugal at 2.46%.

This is going to be very complicated, because polls don't predict a stable or clear outcome at all.

[Mike88]

This will be the first GE after the expiration of Berlusconi’s public office ban.

Meloni’s party will probably do best, but once the results are in, the deals are being made and the regular instability of Italian politics is threatening new governments, he could get much leverage out of what is set to be a small Forza Italia group.

Don’t sleep on the corrupt king!

Paradoxically then, he wouldn't want his coalition to do too well - otherwise Lega and FdI might have a majority on their own (nightmare scenario, but sadly plausible). So that might lead to some fun, er, teamwork depending on how the polls look.

Time to remember this: Lady's and Gentleman, I give you Giorgia Meloni.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

[Mike88]

Average of the polls conducted in the past week:
FdI 22.8%
PD 22.2%
Lega 14.6%
M5S 11.0%
FI 8.2%
+E/Azione 4.6%
Misc. left of PD 4.4%
IV 2.6%
Italexit (lol) 2.4%

So yeah. On those numbers a united right is at 45.6%, enough to win a comfortable majority even if there's some degree of consolidation. Of course it's not necessarily impossible to bring it down - especially as they're catching a lot of flak for their role in torpedoing Draghi in this final act. We'll see how it plays out, but this is the election that should make you nervous if you care about the future of the EU and NATO.

Di Maio nowhere to be seen?

The last poll that showed numbers for his party, only gave him 1.6%. In other polls, his numbers may be so small that he fits in the "Other parties" category. I don't think he has a lot, or any at all, political strength in order to lead a successful campaign.

[Mike88]

I think a "comfortable" right-wing majority is the most likely outcome, but of course many things can still happen. I've also seen some people talk about a "supermajority", which I don't quite comprehend and is probably indicative of a misunderstanding of how constitutional revision in Italy works... in any case I don't expect the CDX to exceed 60%.

I am very sad about the timing of this election. I broke the timeline - first parliamentary election I am eligible for, first one in the second half of the year since the Republic. I also may not seek to be a poll worker this time around (and I still haven't seen the money from June lol).

I also agree that the rightwing will win, and FdI will probably be the largest party, but I'm not sure it will be a stable solution. Meloni and Salvini don't get along that easily now, right? Specially since FdI surpassed Lega in the polls, and Lega crashed like a comet entering the atmosphere. We'll see. Don't feel bad about being a poll worker, here in Portugal, several poll workers haven't received their money yet, and the elections were in January xD.

[Mike88]

M5S is doing everything in their power to be declared dead after this election (if it's not already, they just don't know it yet). I have a hunch they will poll in single digits. But, they will not be missed, IMO.

[Mike88]

La Stampa has a report saying that Salvini's team had contacts with the Russian embassy in Rome, in which the embassy asked if Lega would consider removing their support to Draghi's government. Salvini is denying the report's accusations.

[Mike88]

It seems that PD is negotiating with Renzi:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1553104522666545156

The PD opens to Italia Viva, #Letta: "Dialogue with Renzi, he is our interlocutor"

[Mike88]

Azione leaves the agreement with PD

Più Europa, Azione's alliance partner, on the other hand says that talks with PD are going well and a decision will be made in the next 48 hours:

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1556273308592734208

BREAKING - Benedetto #DellaVedova: "A Più Europa the pact with the PD is fine. We will take 48 hours to decide."

[Mike88]

According to a "forbidden poll" conducted by BiDiMedia this week, no big changes compared with the last polls from two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/ElElectoral/status/1573077474246021120

[Mike88]

When do the polls close and exit polls come out tomorrow?  I recall back in 2018 it was actually midnight Rome time.  Is that still the case this time around?

Polls close at 11PM, 10PM London time, and exit polls will start to be released at that same hour.

[Mike88]

Turnout updates: Turnout at 12pm seems to be stable in the North and Center, but low in the South.

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1573986150485823491

Overall, turnout at 12pm across the country stood at 19.1%, just minus 0.4% compared with 2018.

[Mike88]

Letta is leaving the PD leadership.

https://twitter.com/Radio1Rai/status/1574347116767576070

"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"

[Mike88]

Emma Bonino has lost her seat in Rome. Di Maio also has lost his seat.

[Mike88]

FPTP results map:

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1574300998201491456

[Mike88]

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 

In the House or Senate?

[Mike88]

So Salvini will return as Interior Minister? Will Silvio "Bunga Bunga" Berlusconi take any cabinet position?

From what I've heard in the media, President of the Senate is a possibility.

[Mike88]

Results by town/municipality:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574388089472122882

[Mike88]

Vote transfer diagram:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1574701994866085894

[Mike88]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

[Mike88]

Meloni refuses to give a cabinet post to Salvini:

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574612181806911490

Meloni's veto on Salvini: "Matteo will have no key ministries"

Inside Lega, Salvini's leadership is also being questioned and some say that it's time for a new leader.

She may regret that as he has a huge ego and I cannot see that going over well.

It depends if Salvini remains as leader of Lega or not. Right now, several in the party want to boot him out, mainly because of the catastrophic results, but also because the party's founder, Umberto Bossi, failed to be elected to the Senate, and this is being perceived, within the party, as total humiliation of Bossi with Salvini the only responsible.

[Mike88]

Alleged Meloni-Draghi pact: la Repubblica newspaper reports of a deal between Draghi and Meloni regarding the next government, but the PM's office denies any deal.

https://twitter.com/repubblica/status/1574969290885038082

Kiev and public accounts, Draghi’s contacts with the EU: "Meloni will stay at the pacts" [by Tommaso Ciriaco]

The premier acts as guarantor with Brussels, Paris and Berlin. The three conditions: support for Ukraine, loyalty to NATO and not to blow up the debt. Palazzo Chigi denies

ROME - A compromise to gain accreditation with Europe. A somersault to survive warlike slogans impossible to respect. A few hours after the end of the electoral campaign, Giorgia Meloni shelve the political caresses in Orbán and the promise to "break the back" of the Franco-German axis. And she relies on Mario Draghi. At its "umbrella" with the continental Chancelleries. According to diplomatic sources in Paris, Berlin and Brussels, the president of the Council in office contacted Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Ursula von der Leyen. Guaranteeing for the leader of the Brothers of Italy. And reassuring the big names of the Union on the three pillars that will guide the action of the future government.

These are three conditions that the former banker previously submitted to the leader of the Brothers of Italy. And that Meloni has undertaken to accept. First: the new government will continue to support the commitment - including military - for Ukraine and to keep the sanctions against Moscow united. Second: the stable and indisputable anchorage to NATO, without hesitation or unmarking. Third: it will not approve new budget shifts, in order to keep public debt under control.
(...)
THE DISMISSAL OF PALAZZO CHIGI

In the late morning, the denial of Palazzo Chigi "The Prime Minister has not made any agreement or made any commitment to guarantee anything. The President of the Council maintains regular contact with international interlocutors to discuss the main dossiers on the agenda and remains committed to allowing an orderly transition, in the context of correct institutional relations ".

[Mike88]

Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.

[Mike88]

Meloni seems to be becoming like your average Premier who promisses a lot of "change" but then... nothing. Actually nothing, neither radical or moderate, just managing daily affairs.

There are in fact some relatively substantive reforms underway. However, instead of being about the kitchen-table concerns Italians have in their daily lives (and that drove Meloni to power in the first place) they are about the longstanding ideological obsessions of the right. One is judicial reform, always in the direction of sticking it to the judges/prosecutors who are accused of being too hard on politicians (and to be fair there is also a lot of corruption in the Italian judiciary, though not more than in other branches of government). The other is the law on "regional autonomy", which promises to let regions keep a higher share of their tax revenue. Of course that's good news for wealthy regions like the right-wing bastions of Lombardy and Veneto, and less good news for the South which is a lot more dependent on state support. So Meloni is definitely getting busy in government - but her priorities aren't exactly those of ordinary Italians.

Sure, but it's nothing surprising. The justice reform thing you point out, and the criticisms of judges going "after" politicians, is a bit "whatever" in Southern Europe, as those who are in power, and have a lot of investigations around them, try to "paint" a negative image of the justice system. And the regions tax reform, is also similar to other countries, my own for example.

My earlier point is actually summarized by your last remark, she's just managing things in order to remain in power, just like other Premiers, and not tackling the main issues affecting Italy's society and economy.

[Mike88]

Almost final results:

Lombardia, 9,227/9,254 counted:

54.7% Attilio Fontana (FdI, Lega, FI)
33.9% Pierfrancesco Majorino (PD, M5S, AVS)
  9.9% Letizia Moratti (A–IV)
  1.5% Mara Ghidorzi (UP)

41.7% Turnout (-31.4)

Lazio, 5,216/5,306 counted:

53.8% Francesco Rocca (FdI, Lega, FI)
33.6% Alessio D'Amato (PD, A–IV, AVS, +Eu)
10.8% Donatella Bianchi (M5S)
  1.0% Sonia Pecorilli (PCI)
  0.9% Rosa Rinaldi (UP)

37.2% Turnout (-29.4)