Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Parliament approves new parity law that increases to 40% the number of women in the electoral lists for the October general elections:

It will be a more equal Parliament after the 2019 fall elections in Portugal. Parliament approved a new parity law in which parties have to have at least 40% of women in their lists. The new law was approved by PSD, PS, BE, 2 CDS MPs, including leader Assunção Cristas, and PAN. The rest of CDS MPs and PCP voted against.

[Mike88]

PSD kicks off campaign with the unveiling of a new campaign poster:

The PSD kicked off, today, the campaign for the 2019 elections with the unveil of the 1st campaign poster for their campaign. Rui Rio, PSD leader, asks voters to take part and help the PSD in improving and changing the country.

[Mike88]

CDS internal poll for the Madeira regional elections:

Vote share % and seat projection:

36% PSD, 19/20 seats
33% PS, 18/19
  8% CDS, 4/5
  4% JPP, 2
  3% CDU, 1
  3% BE, 1
  2% PTP, 0/1
11% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

The Alliance, Santana Lopes new party, holds its 1st congress:

The Alliance, Santana Lopes new party, is holding its 1st congress in the city of Évora. Around a 1,000 party delegates, press and invitees will meet during the weekend in the founding congress of the Alliance under the slogan "from the people to the people". In his speech to delegates, Santana criticized heavily António Costa and the "left front" saying "we cannot allow Portugal to be hostage to a destructive ideological agenda or to a left government propelled by radical forces". He added that he wants to form a post-election coalition with PSD and CDS to eject Costa and the left from government. Santana, once again, had a rendez-vous with the past as he criticized President Jorge Sampaio decision, in 2004, to dissolve Parliament without the consent of the PM and that open the door to the absolute majority of the PS and the rise of José Sócrates. He said that if Sampaio had not taken that step, the country would be in a much better state.

The press is reporting that to change the view that the Alliance is an "one man show", many ordinary supporters are being asked to talk and present themselves. Some are ordinary supporters, while others are former PSD members. Paulo Sande, the Alliance's candidate for the EP elections, made a harsh speech towards the EU, defending that national parliaments should have a veto to defend their sovereignty and said that "echoes a clamor about the illegitimacy of the European Commission". Santana Lopes will make a final speech this Sunday.

In a funny note, Alliance members will vote, between 3 options, for a new party anthem. The anthems were introduced during the congress but only one received applause. Here's the 3 candidates for the Alliance party anthem. IMO, all 3 are quite lame.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on the nurses strike:

Q1: If you were PM, or a major government figure, what would you do about the ongoing nurses strike?

59.0% Forbid the strike
36.0% Allow the strike
  5.0% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the civil requisition decree by the government to force nurses to work?

78.5% Yes
20.0% No
  1.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 10 February 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Tension in BE: 25 party members break with the party with harsh criticisms towards Catarina Martins.

25 party members, including two brothers of one of the Left Bloc (BE) founders, Francisco Louçã, have break away from the party and accuse the current party leadership, headed by Catarina Martins, of persecutions, membership expulsions and of party election rigging. In a letter sent to the media, the 25 former BE members say the party has become "bourgeois", hostil to internal discussions and that the party has ceased to "serve" and is only thinking on its survival.

[Mike88]

Another government reshuffle in the making:

The elaboration of the PS european election lists will force António Costa to make another government reshuffle, with a considerable impact. The last one was in October 2018 with the change of 4 ministers and several secretaries. The choice of Pedro Marques, current minister of infrastructures, as the head candidate for the PS in the EP election in May, plus the choice of Maria Manuel Leitão Marques, current minister of administrative modernization, to be also part in the lists, will, according to the media, promote one of Costa's most important deputies, Pedro Nuno Santos, as minister of infrastructures and housing. Pedro Nuno Santos is talked as possible successor of Costa as PS leader, in the future.

For the ministery of administrative modernization, the media is also suggesting that Mariana Vieira da Silva, deputy secretary to the PM and daughter of the current minister of Social Security, could also be promoted to that post.

[Mike88]

Political update:

The past few days have been dominated by the Bank of Portugal governor involvement in the Caixa Geral de Depósitos, public bank, shady and disastrous loans, the ongoing judicial war between the government and nurses unions, and the tension between private hospitals and the government, sort of.

First, the governor of the bank of Portugal. Carlos Costa, the current governor, was involved in many of the shady and disastrous bank loans given by Caixa Geral de Depósitos when he was a member of the board between 2004 and 2006. To make things worse, the loans he was involved in were the most ruinous for the public bank. After this was reported, Mr Costa announced he would excuse himself from any decision, by the bank of Portugal, about Caixa. His deputy, Elisa Ferreira, is also in hot waters because her husband was also involved in loans given by Caixa. Nonetheless, she has refused any wrongdoing and will not excuse herself. Reactions by all parties have been very negative towards Mr Costa, with some suggesting his removal from office.

PS says that Mr Costa should resign if there is prove of his direct involvement on the shady bank loans, and that he knows exactly what he did and should think very well about his position. PSD says that there isn't "untouchable" people and the PSD leader, Rui Rio, says the governor is in thin ice and should, also, think if he's still qualified for the job. If not, he should resign immediately. CDS has a similar position to PSD but asks that Carlos Costa should testify in Parliament. BE is the most active in the process to oust Carlos Costa from office. BE has proposed to the government the removal of Carlos Costa from office. This action has the support of PCP. The media is also hitting hard on Mr Costa, saying the governor is in a very precarious situation, but will he be removed from office? That's the big question.

Then, there's the ongoing legal battle between the government and nurses unions. Last week, the government approved a civil requisition to force nurses to work and stop the strike. But, nurses unions and associations have filed a subpoena that was accepted by the Courts. The government now has 5 days to present its defense. Unions want the court to declare the civil requisition, decreed by the government, as illegal. A judge will, next week, announce a decision that could be crucial in the war between unions and the government.

And finally, the tensions between private hospitals and the state health insurance, ADSE. In the last few days, many private hospitals has been tearing up the agreements between them and the ADSE, the state owned health insurance for public employees created in the 1960's during the Salazar regime. Private hospitals accuse the government of asking back 38 million euros from them and of not paying, at the right time, the services they give. ADSE says that private hospitals are using the beneficiaries of the insurance as a weapon to pressure the government.


CUF Private hospital in Lisbon.

At the same time, ADSE is open to negotiate with private hospitals to stop the tensions. ADSE is willing to accept some of the private hospitals conditions like the end of settlement of invoices, meaning, asking back the money. Opposition parties have been hammering the PS and the government about this. While PS, and the government, ask for "serene" talks between ADSE and private hospitals, PSD accuses the government of trying to destroy ADSE. CDS accuses the same thing, adding that the poorest public employees will suffer the most. PCP and BE accuse private hospitals of blackmail.

[Mike88]

CDS will present a motion of no confidence against Costa... but it doesn't feel like one:

It was the political bombshell news of the day. As the PSD and PS are preparing for their national conventions this weekend, both occur on the same day, CDS announced it will present a motion of no confidence against Costa and the PS. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, wants all parties to put out on the table if they support the government, or not, in a time of considerable social protest against the government: nurses and teachers strikes, the ADSE/private hospitals feud, the cuts in public spending. The motion will not pass, of course. BE and PCP have already announced that they would not vote in favour of it and are mocking CDS's move.

So, what's the point of this motion? In reality, the motion seems to be more against Rui Rio, PSD leader, than against Costa. The media is seeing this motion as a way for CDS to screw PSD and put pressure on Rui Rio. In reaction to the motion, PSD didn't disclose their voting intentions but said they will use the debate to criticize the government and promote alternative policies to the PS.

I wouldn't be surprised if PSD abstained in this motion. The motion doesn't make much sense when you are just 3 months away from the EP elections which, historically, have a tradition of punishing governments. We'll see.

[Mike88]

I imagine it will end up like the first no confidence vote here, which was pretty much a vanity show for Podemos that ended up harming them in the long run and was generally seen as a waste of everyone's time.

Maybe Portugal will be different though? Will Cristas herself have to run as a PM candidate or is it a "destructive" motion? (where Portugal goes directly into a snap election)

Motions of no confidence in Portugal don't have any constitutional meaning. If a government loses a vote of no confidence, it can try to form a new parliamentary arrangement like what happened in 1978 between PS and CDS. Portugal has had, in its almost 50 years of democracy, 28 motions of no confidence. Only one, in 1987, made a government colapse. It was the notorious "PRD motion" that led the way to the death of PRD and the PSD landslide victory of 50% in the 1987 elections. The President of the Republic can also have a say on what happens after a no confidence vote win.

Yeah, like the Podemos motion in Spain, this one will not pass. PS, BE and CDU have already said they will vote against it. It's more a way for CDS to pressure PSD and make the PSD look bad. Rui Rio hates this kind of political moves and, my hunch, is that he's furious at CDS for making this kind of pressure to the PSD. But, he knows that his caucus probably is more inclined to support the CDS motion than to abstain. It's still unclear how the PSD will vote and how much impact will this move have on all parties. Plus, the feeling is that motions of no confidence, at least in Portugal, have become banal.

[Mike88]

Your right, motions of no confidence are just political stunts in Portuguese politics in these days...

They should change the law in order to make motions of no confidence work like in Spain, IMO.

Anyway, PS and PSD national conventions were held today, with very few surprises:

First, the PS. The Socialists gathered today in Gaia city, Porto, in a national party convention for the EP elections in May 2019. The main attraction was to be the announcement of the name of the PS headlist candidate, Pedro Marques, but his name was leaked in the last few days to the press, so the suspense was zero. The main headlines were Costa's speech and the, surprise endorsement of Emmanuel Macron to António Costa and the PS. The French President made a video endorsing the PS and Costa, and, like Macron, Costa received endorsements videos from Alexis Tsipras and Stefan Löfven.

And finally, the PSD.  The Social Democrats held in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro, their National Strategic Council Convention which will write and put forward the party's election manifesto for the October general elections. This convention, just like the PS, didn't had many surprises. Some policies were announced like the idea to change the electoral system or reduce the number of MPs or to rethink the closure of courts in more rural areas that occurred in 2014 in the previous PSD/CDS government. Like the PS convention, the main headline was Rio's speech and the announcement of Carlos Moedas, current EU commissioner for research, science and innovation, as the PSD campaign trustee for the EP elections.

[Mike88]

4th government reshuffle becomes official:

The Presidency of the Republic has published, in their website, the government reshuffle proposed by António Costa and approved by Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. This reshuffle happens as Pedro Marques, still minister of infrastructures, and Maria Manuel Leitão Marques, still minister of administrative modernization, are leaving the government to contest the EP elections in May. The new ministers are the following:

- Pedro Nuno Santos: Minister of Infrastructures and Housing;

- Mariana Vieira da Silva: Minister of the Presidency and Administrative Modernization;

- Nelson Souza: Minister of Planning;

Duarte Cordeiro, current deputy mayor of Lisbon city, will succeed Pedro Nuno Santos as secretary of Parliamentary Affairs. The new ministers and secretaries of state will be sworn in this Monday afternoon.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from February:

Vote share %:

36.4% PS (-1.3)
24.4% PSD (+0.3)
  9.3% CDS (-0.1)
  8.9% BE (+0.1)
  6.3% CDU (-0.9)
  2.5% PAN (-1.0)
  1.6% Alliance (+0.4)
  7.6% Others/Invalid (+2.3)
  3.0% Undecided (+0.2)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

9.4 António Costa (-0.8 )
8.8 Catarina Martins (-1.0)
8.2 Assunção Cristas (+0.5)
7.7 Rui Rio (+1.3)
7.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-2.0)

Preferred PM:

52.7% António Costa (-2.7)
31.4% Rui Rio (+4.5)   
14.1% Neither (-2.2)
  0.6% Both (-0.2)
  1.2% Undecided (+0.6)
   
Poll conducted between 5 and 10 February 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.   

[Mike88]

Aximage poll on Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's job performance:

Q: How do you rate the job the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is doing?

67.1% Approve (-7.2)
24.2% Disapprove (+7.2)
  8.7% Undecided (nc)

Poll conducted between 5 and 10 February 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PSD will vote in favour of CDS's motion of no confidence, but says it's useless:

The Social Democrats ended the only suspense about the CDS motion of no confidence against Costa and the PS. The PSD will vote in favour of CDS's motion of no confidence, but they downplay the motion it self. Rui Rio confirmed the decision via twitter adding that "it's clear that the CDS's motion to censure the Government has no practical effect." The motion will not pass as the 107 votes of PSD+CDS are well short of the combined 122 votes of PS+BE+CDU. PAN sole MP is the only doubt.

Some of pundits thought Rio would decide to abstain rather to vote in favour. Rio probably made this call to calm down his caucus, at the same time he hammers the CDS for presenting a motion without any sense and, maybe, tries to portray the image that the PSD is saving CDS from humiliation, thus trying to gain some voters that have gone for CDS.

[Mike88]

Deputy leader of the Alliance, Carlos Pinto, accused of embezzlement. Santana Lopes considers dropping him:

Carlos Pinto, deputy leader of the Alliance and former PSD mayor of Covilhã city, Castelo Branco, is being accused of embezzlement and prevarication by the authorities. It is suspected that Mr Pinto built his house, in Covilhã city, in an illegal way and he, apparently, used municipal money to pay for his own judicial costs. Mr. Pinto denies the accusation and says the authorities are reading too much "police thrillers". In 2017, Carlos Pinto was sentenced to three years of suspended sentence for the crime of prevarication.

But, Santana Lopes is considering dropping his deputy because of these accusations. Santana says he has talked with Mr. Pinto about this, but wants a face to face talk with him before making a decision.

[Mike88]

CDS motion of no confidence fails in Parliament, as expected:

The motion of no confidence presented by CDS against the government failed, today, in Parliament. The motion had 115 votes against and 103 in favour, 12 MPs were absent. The results were widely  expected and motion itself had little media impact. Nonetheless, the debate had a very bitter CDS accusing the Costa and the PS of running the country without a plan. The PS and the left parties, BE and CDU, mocked Cristas for using the motion to only scoring points against the PSD and said the real target of Cristas is Rui Rio. The PSD was in low profile mode during the debate, giving the stage to Cristas even though she, in her speech, mocked a little the PSD.

Also, about the Alliance deputy leader case, he was suspended from his job, by the party leadership, until his case is resolved.

[Mike88]

Update on the opinion poll chart since 2001:



The current average of polls gives something like this:

37% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDS
  9% BE
  7% CDU
  3% PAN
  2% Alliance
  8% Others/Invalid

[Mike88]

Passos Coelho returns. Former PSD leader accuses PS of making more austerity than his own government:

Former PM and PSD leader, Pedro Passos Coelho, appeared yesterday in the political stage with a very harsh speech against Costa and the PS. Passos Coelho accused the PS of applying more austerity than his own government in the NHS and the Educational sector, adding that those same ministers that in 2011 left the country in pre-bankruptcy are still around, today, with the same speech, concluding that the PS hasn't learn a thing from the past.

The remarks were made in a PSD conference in Coimbra city that will end this Sunday with the presence, and speech, of Rui Rio, PSD leader. It will be interesting to see if Passos Coelho will take part in the PSD campaign for the fall general elections. My hunch is that Rio and his team will not invite him, but if he shows up to support Rio, they cannot rebuke him. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Assunção Cristas is being investigated for, allegedly, favouring Cavaco Silva's son-in-law in the sale of Lisbon's biggest arena in 2013:

The DA office has confirmed that they are investigating Assunção Cristas decision, as minister in 2013, of selling the biggest arena in Lisbon, Atlantic Pavilion, to Luís Montez, the son-in-law of former President and PM Aníbal Cavaco Silva.

This story broke last week when TVI television reported that wiretaps prove that Luís Montez had privilege information as he, at the time of the sale, was the manager of the company that was managing the arena. His company, however, was bankrupt and was able to win the sale by the help, according to TVI, of BES bank and Ricardo Salgado, former BES chairman and currently accused of several corruption crimes. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, denies any wrongdoing, denies she's a friend of Luís Montez and says she follow the law.

[Mike88]

Local by-elections in Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish, Águeda, Aveiro district, today:


Location of Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish in Águeda municipality.

2,027 voters are today called to elect a new parish assembly in Travassô e Óis da Ribeira parish, Águeda, Aveiro district. 5 party lists are on the ballot plus 1 independent movement. Voters were called to vote in a snap poll after the PSD led minority, elected in 2017, was unable to form a government and, therefore, resigned to call an election. It's expected a close result between PSD and the independent movement "Together".

[Mike88]

Travassô e Óis da Ribeira by-election - PSD hold:

53.6% PSD (+12.5), 6 seats (+2)
20.1% Independent (-15.9), 2 (-2)
13.1% CDS (new), 1 (new)
  7.9% PS (-7.7), 0 (-1)
  1.5% BE (new), 0
  1.4% CDU (-0.5), 0
  2.5% Invalid ballots (-2.9)

65.9% Turnout (-2.9)

[Mike88]

Eurobarometer for Portugal - Fall 2018

1. Most important issues facing the country (two possible answers)

33% Healthcare and Social Security
32% Inflation/Cost of living
27% Unemployment
19% Pensions
17% Taxes
16% The economy
15% The government debt
  9% Education
  6% Housing
  4% Crime
  3% Immigration
  3% Environment/Global warming
  1% Terrorism

2. Trust in Political institutions (compared with the last Eurobarometer)

43% Government (-12%)
37% Parliament (-11%)
17% Political parties (-9%)

3. Would Portugal face the future better, being out of the EU?

69% No
20% Yes
11% Undecided

4. Trust in the media:

68% TV
68% Radio
61% Newspapers
41% Internet
26% Social Media

Poll conducted between 8 and 19 November 2018.

[Mike88]

Most interesting thing about that graph is probably how CDS managed to easily survive the coalition with PSD. I'd have expected them to be absorbed by the larger party.

There was the doubt, during 2011-2015, that CDS would face the same fate the Lib Dems faced in the UK. But, the difference is that PSD was perceived as more radical, in terms of policies, than CDS and the constant clashes between PSD and CDS ministers reinforced the view that CDS was successful in calming down the "radicalization" of the PSD. However, some pundits argue that the PSD-CDS coalition in 2015 saved CDS, as they say that, in a scenario where PSD and CDS ran alone, closer to election day, voters would bipolarize options between PSD and PS, leaving CDS in danger. The fear of a PS victory could have made many CDS voters to vote PSD, even though they weren't fans of Passos Coelho.

[Mike88]

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, is considering leaving the leadership in 2020:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader since 2004, is considering leaving the party leadership in 2020, year of the next PCP national congress. But, he adds, that he could make another decision by that time saying "life will tell". It will be interesting to see who could succeed Jerónimo de Sousa, as there isn't a clear frontrunner or "natural" successor. The 2019 elections results could also be critical for the Communists. They currently are polling at record low levels, around 6%.