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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1200 on: September 29, 2018, 02:08:23 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2018, 02:11:31 PM by Mike88 »

PSD-Azores chooses the man that will face Vasco Cordeiro in 2020:


The 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio (left), Pedro Nascimento Cabral (right).

Members of PSD-Azores are voting today for a new leader. The previous leader, Duarte Freitas, resigned in July saying he didn't had political grounds to continue as leader. There are 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio, the popular mayor of the 3rd largest city in Azores, Ribeira Grande, and Pedro Nascimento Cabral, a big critic of Duarte Freitas leadership. The new leader will face the incumbent president of the region, Vasco Cordeiro (PS), in 2020. The PSD is out of power in Azores since 1996. Results will be released during Saturday night.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1201 on: September 29, 2018, 06:43:58 PM »

PSD-Azores chooses the man that will face Vasco Cordeiro in 2020:


The 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio (left), Pedro Nascimento Cabral (right).

Members of PSD-Azores are voting today for a new leader. The previous leader, Duarte Freitas, resigned in July saying he didn't had political grounds to continue as leader. There are 2 candidates: Alexandre Gaudêncio, the popular mayor of the 3rd largest city in Azores, Ribeira Grande, and Pedro Nascimento Cabral, a big critic of Duarte Freitas leadership. The new leader will face the incumbent president of the region, Vasco Cordeiro (PS), in 2020. The PSD is out of power in Azores since 1996. Results will be released during Saturday night.
Alexandre Gaudêncio wins PSD-Azores leadership election:

60.9% 1,716 Alexandre Gaudêncio
37.5% 1,058 Pedro Nascimento Cabral
  1.6%      46 Blank/Invalid ballots
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1202 on: October 02, 2018, 04:51:40 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2018, 04:56:31 PM by Mike88 »

Political update:

Leading up to 2019, political leaders are starting to give big interviews to the media and António Costa gave one last night. The interview, broadcast by TVI, was conducted in São Bento Palace, the official residence of the PM. In the interview, Costa talked about the budget, taxes, strikes, the choice of the new Attorney General (AG), and the possible electoral outcomes in 2019: Overall, the interview can be summed in a few points:


António Costa giving an interview to TVI.

- The 2019 budget: Costa said that negotiations, between BE and CDU, are going well, adding that the recovery of families incomes will continue and that the budget will not be an "electoral" one;

- Taxes/Pensions: IRS taxes will be lowered with the end of the IRS surcharge and with the creation of some new IRS grades. On the other hand, taxes in electricity and others, that were somewhat expected to be lowered, will remain untouched. Pensions will also be increased. According to the PM, 98% of pensions will be increased and 68% above inflation.

- Public workers: Costa hinted that wages for Public workers could increase but was vague on how many would see that increase. According to him, there is around 50 million euros for public workers.

- The new AG: The PM says that there weren't no problems in finding a successor for the current attorney-general, Joana Marques Vidal. He added that the new name, Lucília Gago, is a consensual name.

- 2019 outcomes: The PM refuses any coalition ideas with the PSD and says that is bad for democracy for the two main parties to be in coalition. He adds he's happy with the current arrangement, but isn't willing to include BE or CDU politicians in a future PS government.

- Pedrógão Grande and Tancos scandals: About Pedrógão Grande, the PM says that all cases need to be investigated by the police and the DA office, and about Tancos, Costa says that the government did everything they could and defended his minister of defence, refusing calls for his resignation.

- Time change: It seems that Portugal will continue in the old system, one time for the summer and another for winter. The PM said that science says it's the best option and who is he to go against science.

Political parties already reacted to Costa's interview. PSD and CDS said that Costa wasted people's time with an interview where he offered "a hand full of nothing" to the country. PCP reacted saying that it will be very difficult to be part of a second PS cabinet and that the differences between both parties are becoming bigger and bigger. BE didn't liked many of Costa stances in the interview, but will continue negotiating, with the PS, the 2019 budget.  

Full interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZM5YxDCw-Qg
(It can be translated from Português to Inglês)

The next party leader to give an interview is Rui Rio, PSD leader, this Thursday on RTP1.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1203 on: October 04, 2018, 04:57:43 PM »

The Tancos scandal just hit the government with full force:

The Tancos air base robbery scandal just dropped in the government like a bomb. Today, newspapers started reporting that the Defense minister, Azeredo Lopes, and his secretary knew about the alleged cover up to find the stolen weapons and the name of the alleged robber of the weapons. The minister and his secretary, according to the media, knew about this in December and hid the information. The revelation was made in court by one investigator of the military police who was arrested.


Azeredo Lopes, Defense minister.

The minister has already denied he had any knowledge of the case, and Costa has already said he has "full confidence in the Defense minister". Parties have already reacted to this. Rui Rio, PSD leader, said that if he was PM, the minister would he exonerated immediately. CDS is willing to call Costa himself to testify in a committee in Parliament, while BE and PCP want the defense minister to testify in Parliament.

The big question, if the accusations are true, is how long will the defense minister last in office.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1204 on: October 05, 2018, 02:16:37 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2018, 02:52:29 PM by Mike88 »

Political update:

Today marks the 108th anniversary of the implantation of the republic, but celebrations were overshadowed by the Tancos scandal, involving the minister of defense, and the teachers protests in Lisbon. In the Republic commemorations in Lisbon city hall, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic (PR), said that "there isn't democracy without democrats and without giving the proper attention to the armed forces", clearly alluding to the Tancos scandal. The PR warned also of the dangers of neglecting the armed forces, citting examples from the past, and said also "everyday we built or destroy democracy".


The President of the Republic giving his speech in Lisbon city hall.

Arriving at the ceremony, António Costa was received, far behind, with protests from teachers unions and with many reporters making questions about the future of the defense minister. Costa, once again, reaffirmed his confidence in the defense minister adding that both the minister and his former secretary have denied any previous knowledge of the cover up. Nonetheless, the PM said that there are still many questions to be answered.


Teachers protests in front of the Finance ministry.

Like i said above, teachers unions ended a 4 day strike with a rally against the government in Lisbon. Many teachers from across the country protested in Lisbon against the government's plan to only count 2 years of the teachers progressions and past salaries rather than 9 years. According to the police, more than 20,000 teachers protested in Lisbon. Teachers unions will sue the government and will put forward a complaint against the government to the International Labor Organization.

Yesterday was also the interview of Rui Rio, PSD leader, on RTP1. The interview was mainly dominated with national affairs, with Rio demanding the resignation of the defense minister saying "if and when i am PM, and if the allegations are true, the minister would be sacked immediately". Rio also said that he's on the teachers unions side saying "the government promissed something that they couldn't keep and that's wrong". He also acknowledged that the PSD isn't in a good moment right know, but he believes that by September 2019, the PSD will be neck and neck with the PS. He also said he wants to win the 2019 elections and asked for his critics to stop because their only helping the PS.


Rui Rio in a interview to RTP1/RTP3.

With André Ventura's campaign still ongoing, it seems he has around 3,000 signatures of PSD voters and members, many of the possible candidates against Rio are saying that Rio should lead the party on to the 2019 elections and refuse a snap leadership contest. Ventura's campaign could be condemn to be a failure, but, many development could still shake things up. We'll see.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1205 on: October 06, 2018, 06:59:59 AM »

André Ventura plans to suspend his campaign to bring down Rui Rio after all PSD local/district structures refused to support him:


André Ventura in a campaign event in 2017.

André Ventura is planning to stop his campaign to bring down Rui Rio after all PSD party structures, local and district, refused to support him. He's also thinking of resigning from his post as councillor from Loures city. Mr Ventura says he's disappointed with Luís Montenegro, Rio's strongest opponent, because he said that the party needs unity and maturity, and that Rio should lead the party on to the 2019 elections. Ventura added that he also feels like he was "stabbed in the back" by all PSD party structures particularly PSD-Loures and PSD-Lisbon, which totally refused any support to his campaign and pledge total support to Rui Rio.  

Rui Rio may have just had a huge sigh of relief.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1206 on: October 07, 2018, 06:55:37 AM »

Marmeleiro parish, Guarda, local by-election this Sunday:


Location of Marmeleiro parish in Guarda municipality.

A total of 478 registered voters are being called, today, to elect a new parish assembly in Marmeleiro parish, Guarda. The previous PSD minority assembly fell after disagreements between PSD and PS/CDS on the composition of the parish government. Marmeleiro is a PSD bastion in general elections, it has voted PSD or in PSD-led coalitions in all general elections since 1979, but in parish elections it is a swing parish. It has been run by CDS, Independents, PS and, since 2005, by the PSD. Only PSD and CDS have submitted candidates for this by-election.

This will be the last local by-election this year, probably.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1207 on: October 07, 2018, 10:20:32 AM »

Question:

Why were the turnouts in the 1998 and 2007 Abortion Referendums in Portugal so low?

Referendums in Portugal have always very low turnout rates. It's one of the main reasons that everytime there's a discussion about a possible referendum about something, gay marriage, euthanasia, you name it, pundits and politicians raise to, basically, say it's useless and a waste of money to hold referendums.

Now, the 1998 referendum had low turnout because it was held on a hot summer day and because voters just didn't care, i believe. In 2007, the history was somewhat similar, although turnout increased to 44%, against the 32% in 1998. But, overall, voters just don't care about referendums and the issues that are brought up in those referendum. Even the Nov. 1998 regionalization referendum only had a 48% turnout.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1208 on: October 07, 2018, 02:56:44 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2018, 06:30:53 PM by Mike88 »

Marmeleiro parish by-election: PSD hold

52.9% PSD (+10.3), 4 seats (+1)
41.6% CDS (+6.0), 3 (nc)
  5.5% Invalid/Blank (-1.7)

62.9% Turnout (+3.7)
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1209 on: October 07, 2018, 08:47:24 PM »

Aximage poll from October:

Vote share %:

38.9% PS (-1.0)
24.0% PSD (-0.1)
  9.2% CDS (nc)
  9.1% BE (+1.3)
  7.4% CDU (+0.3)
  9.4% Others/Invalid (-0.6)
  2.0% Undecided (+0.1)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

10.8 António Costa (-1.1)
  9.8 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
  9.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
  8.8 Assunção Cristas (+0.7)
  8.3 Rui Rio (-0.9)

Preferred PM:

55.3% António Costa (-2.3)
30.1% Rui Rio (+2.1)

Poll conducted between 1 and 3 October 2018. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1210 on: October 09, 2018, 02:47:22 PM »

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1211 on: October 10, 2018, 05:13:42 PM »

This combined with Santana Lopes' new party is pretty hilarious. The right looks a bit in disarray due to Rui Rio. Neither one of my grandfathers likes Rio, and my maternal grandfather (who votes at the consulate) says he will back Santana Lopes' party if it gains traction.

Well, André Ventura isn't comparable with Santana. Santana could have a lot of credibility issues, but he was still admired by many in the PSD. That's not the case with Ventura. He was relatively unknown until he made the "romani/gypsy remarks" in the 2017 election campaign. Since then, many in the PSD want distance from him and his departure is more about the lack of acknowledgement from Luís Montenegro and others, than Rui Rio himself. Rui Rio isn't perfect, i my self a regular PSD voter, supported him in the primaries earlier this year, and i acknowledge that he is sometimes a bit awkward and inconsistent, but his internal opposition is also tiring. It seems they have toned down a bit, elections are just around the corner of course, but Rio will have to prove his tough in campaigning. The EU elections will be a critical test for him.

Will it get any traction? Also, will it be just a socially conservative party, or will it also try to become some sort of right wing populist party? (being against inmigration and the like)

Most likely not. Like i said above, Ventura isn't Santana. He doesn't have the connections or the popularity, in party ranks, that Santana has, or had. And creating a party, at least in Portugal, is hard work. You have to collect a minimum of 7,500 signatures, write very precise party rules and have a good structure. You also need money. Santana clearly has, Ventura, well, i doubt but, who knows.

Ventura, if his party, goes ahead, would lead a right-wing populist party, focused on law and order, end political correctness, against abortion, gay marriage, etc. Immigration isn't an issue in Portugal. Unlike the rest of Europe, we need more immigrants to maintain the population stable and to have new minds and people in our economy. Ventura himself is in favour of more immigration to Portugal.

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1212 on: October 11, 2018, 04:53:07 PM »

More updates in the Tancos scandal:

It was reported yesterday, and during today, that unlike initial reports, the former chief of staff of the minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes, had info that the recovery of the Tancos base weapons was all a cover-up and a hoax. The former chief of staff had, in fact, the info since mid 2017, and, initially, he denied any knowledge. He has already sent the documents, after the press reported their existence, to the DA office, but lawyers involved in the case say that the former chief of staff of the minister of defense may had committed several crimes and want him questioned.

Azeredo Lopes' position as minister is becoming more and more unstable.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1213 on: October 11, 2018, 05:23:37 PM »

Average of polls and projected seats:

Vote share and seats: (seats compared with 2015)
(116 for a majority)

40.5% PS, 112 seats (+26)
26.1% PSD, 71 (-18)
  8.7% BE, 17 (-2)
  8.5% CDS, 16 (-2)
  7.2% CDU, 14 (-3)
  1.1% PAN, 0 (-1)
  7.9% Others/Invalid

From here.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1214 on: October 13, 2018, 07:04:56 AM »

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Also, big news yesterday: Azeredo Lopes, defense minister, resigned.

The minister of defense, Azeredo Lopes, tendered his resignation to the PM, this Friday, in order to prevent wearing the armed forces. Azeredo Lopes was in the middle of a very complicated scandal involving the robbery and subsequent discovery of weapons from Tancos air base, Santarém district. In the letter he continues to deny any knowledge of the cover-up and did absolutely nothing to protect the robbers. António Costa accepted the resignation of Mr. Lopes and in a statement sent to the press, he thanked the minister for the service to his country.


António Costa and Azeredo Lopes hugging during the swearing in of the new AG.

Azeredo Lopes was seen with the PM, on Friday morning, in the swearing in of the new Attorney General (AG), and hours later he announced his resignation. Party leaders have already reacted to the resignation. Rui Rio, PSD leader, said that Mr. Lopes resignation only failed to be late and that he showed more sense of duty than António Costa.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1215 on: October 13, 2018, 10:28:43 AM »

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

Not really, because the CDS hates his guts. They withdrew their support from him in 2017 and since then want nothing to do with him.

Why is that?

They didn't liked his comments about the gypsy/romani community in Portugal and immediately withdrew their support from him in the 2017 elections, and started campaigning against him. Cristas pressured the CDS-Loures to drop their support to Ventura because she doesn't want CDS candidates, or CDS supported candidates, to say or defend comments that could be labeled as racist.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1216 on: October 14, 2018, 06:51:49 AM »

Costa makes the biggest government reshuffle in his term: New ministers of Health, Economy, Culture and Defense.

Hours after the government approved the final draft of the 2019 budget, Costa announced he had reshuffled his cabinet and dismiss the ministers of Health, Economy and Culture. The new ministers are the following:

 
New ministers: Top left: João Gomes Cravinho; Top right: Marta Temido; Bottom left: Graça Fonseca; Bottom right: Pedro Siza Vieira.

-Economy minister: Pedro Siza Vieira

-Culture minister: Graça Fonseca

-Defense minister: João Gomes Cravinho

-Health minister: Marta Temido

The new ministers will be sworn in next Monday morning.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1217 on: October 14, 2018, 10:53:49 AM »

Secretary of state for Energy is also out:

It seems that Hurricane Leslie, that made landfall in Portugal last night, has also hit the government. After Costa ousted 3 of his ministers and chose new ones, 2 women and 1 men, the secretary of energy, Jorge Seguro Sanches, will also leave the government. Mr Sanches has recently been involved in many controversial nominations to the energy regulation sector. It's unclear if this has anything to do with his departure from Costa government.

Is Costa's reshuffle complete, or will more governmental members be ousted? We'll see.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1218 on: October 14, 2018, 02:49:18 PM »

Party leaders reactions to Costa's major government reshuffle:

Rui Rio (PSD): "The PM has acknowledged that the PSD, in a way, was right in the areas of Health, Defense and Economy. (...) However, he left out Education, and that means he thinks things are OK in the education sector and we know everything is not OK.(...) Also, a doubt arises, did the ministers exited on their own, left because of disagreements with the 2019 budget, or were ousted by the PM? This question should be answered by the PM."

Assunção Cristas (CDS): "This reshuffle shows how weak António Costa is right now.(...) Who needs to be reshuffled is António Costa as he doesn't have the stature to be governing Portugal".

Both PCP and BE weren't informed by Costa of the major government reshuffle.

Jerónimo de Sousa (PCP): "Who knows about the life of the convent, it's who goes there." Meaning it's Costa's decision but, he added that what's important is the policies not the people leading the ministries and that is what the PCP is worried.

Catarina Martins (BE): "The country was caught a little unprepared"

Heloísa Apolónia (PEV): "We regret that this governmental reshuffle happened just before the discussion of the 2019 budget.(...) The timing doesn't seem adequate."

André Silva (PAN): "The government choose the best time to make a governmental reshuffle because it will not become the center of a political debate."
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1219 on: October 16, 2018, 05:04:45 PM »

The 2019 budget was delivered to Parliament:

The 2019 budget was delivered, yesterday, to Parliament by the finance minister, Mário Centeno. The budget predicts an economic growth of 2.2% in 2019, an unemployment rate of 6.3%, a reduction of the public debt to 118.5% and a deficit of 0.2%, meaning almost a balance budget. Mário Centeno says that the budget doesn't has any electoral policies and that what wins elections are good and credible economic policies like the 2019 budget proposes. The PM, António Costa, also hailed the budget proposal and gave a response towards the opposition saying " many people did not believe that we would be here to present the fourth budget".


Mário Centeno delivering the budget to the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues.

But the budget also has other policies, fiscal and social, of high relevance. The main policies are the following:

- An extraordinary pension adjustment of 10 or 6 euros for pensioners with pensions equal to or less than around 450 euros;

- Reduction of the value of tuition fees in college;

- Extension of free textbooks for all compulsory schooling;

- Recruitment of 1,000 workers with higher education to rejuvenate and strengthen the Public Administration;

- First installment of the housing tax will be reduced in 100 euros and get paid in May;

- 50% IRS discount for returning migrants;

- Increase in the value of family allowance according to age, in the first six years of life;

- Reduction of VAT on tickets for live shows: 6% in Mainland Portugal, 4% in the Azores and 5% in Madeira;

- Lower costs to public transportation tickets and passes. Families will only have to spent no more than 80 euros in Public transportation across the country. Tickets for children below 12 years old will be free;

- Reduction of VAT on electricity, from 23% to 6%, for households with contracted electrical power that not exceeds 3.45 kVA;

Parties have already reacted to the budget goals and proposals. PSD says the 2019 budget is resemble of the nefarious electoral 1999 and 2009 budgets, respectively from António Guterres and José Sócrates. The party added that next year budget is a wasted opportunity. CDS also criticizes the budget, saying "it is more of the same" and that Costa "gives with one hand and takes with the other".

On the other hand, the PS rejects any kind of "electoralism" in the budget and says that the 2019 budget "accomplishes and consolidates the successes that for the opposition were impossible". PCP says that the budget has some positive measures but that is still heavily limited by the options of the PS, while BE says that net year's budget "doesn't demonstrate everything we wanted, but it has fair and good measures for the economy".
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1220 on: October 19, 2018, 05:11:26 PM »

Some controversies involving ministers after Costa's big reshuffle:

Pedro Siza Vieira, new Economy minister, is once again in the middle of a controversy. This time, it's because he's married with the president of the Association of Hoteliers of Portugal, a big association involved in tourism, and Siza Vieira oversees the tourism policy area. The government refuses any kind of incompatibility and, at first, downplayed the case. But, pressed by reporters in Parliament, Mr Siza Vieira said he will excuse himself, in the future, in any dealings involving the Association of Hoteliers of Portugal and, once again, refused any incompatibility.

The husband of the new Health minister has resigned from the presidency of the National Health Council. Marta Temido's husband, Jorge Simões, alleged personal reasons for his resignation. The presidency of National Health Council is an office nominated by the council of ministers at the advice of the Health minister. Everthing points that this resignation is to prevent any kind of incompatibilities.

Also, another controversy, this one surrounding pensions. Just after the 2019 budget was announced, it was understood that workers that asked for early pensions, would be less punished, but it seems that was false. The government approved legislation to punish early pensions in 2019. This caught everyone by surprise, particularly PCP and BE, because they hailed the announcement of an ease on early pensions. Now they they are upset with the Social Security minister and accuse him of creating a "huge mess". The minister proposes creating a transition period for changes in pensions.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1221 on: October 20, 2018, 07:12:12 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2018, 07:21:31 AM by Mike88 »

Honestly these defections only made it more likely for me to vote for PSD.

Good to see you back, Crals. Would like to hear your thoughts on how is Azores politics right now. The PSD-Azores just elected a new leader. How do you rate him? Do you think he has any chances against Vasco Cordeiro in 2020?
Thank you! And thank you for the updates too, this thread is a better news source than our national newspapers. Tongue

Sorry for not replying sooner, I meant to but forgot about it until now. About Alexandre Gaudêncio, I'm afraid I (and most people in my island) don't really know him. Which is bad for PSD, as Cordeiro has both name recognition and the strong position of the national PS helping him. I don't know how people in São Miguel feel about him however, but he seems to be pretty popular in his municipality judging on his results on local elections (as you probably know he's the mayor of Ribeira Grande and won it from PS in 2013). Who knows what can change until 2020, but so far I see no reason why PS wouldn't win again to be honest.

Thanks for the feedback. Smiley

Interesting analysis of Azores politics. Well, about name recognition, Gaudêncio has 2 years to make him noticeable for the Azores electorate, but the issue is, like you said, what will the mood be in 2020. In 2012, the PSD, in my opinion, had a real shot of taking back Azores but the whole "SS contribution fiasco" and the following mass protests, blew up everything for the PSD. It doesn't help that polling in Azores is also almost impossible.

Also, is Cordeiro popular as president, or people, with currently no strong alternative, just became accustomed to him? We know a lot about Madeira on this issue, Azores not so much.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1222 on: October 20, 2018, 05:36:24 PM »

2019 budget update:

Parties are already position themselves for the November budget vote. Today, PSD announced they will vote against the budget, with Rui Rio saying that the 2019 budget is, in summary, "a budget orgy" with lots of electoralism. On the other hand, BE announced that they will vote in favour of the budget, although they acknowledge that the budget has its limitations. CDS has already announced that they will vote against the budget, like the PSD. That leaves out PCP which hasn't made a decision yet, but it's basically a forgone conclusion.

That said the 2019 budget has currently 105 votes in favour, plus the very likely 17 votes of PCP/PEV, and 107 votes against.
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1223 on: October 24, 2018, 05:57:44 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2018, 04:19:21 PM by Mike88 »

Political update:

The last few days, or week, has been dominated, essentially, by the 2019 budget fallout and subsequent reactions, and confusions from the government. But, other stories, with some relevance, have also dominated headlines.

First, it was the resignation of Helena Roseta, PS MP, from the Parliamentary housing committee after the PS asked, for the 3rd consecutive time, a postponement of the parliamentary vote on the proposals from the committee. Ms Roseta said that between her conscience and her duty, she opted for her conscience and resigned. Se added that the PS's subsequent delays hit with the warnings from many institutions, like the PS controlled Lisbon city hall, that the housing question is deeply urgent.


Helena Roseta, PS MP, announcing her resignation to the press.

The vote is therefore scheduled for December, but the PS has nominated a new chairman for the committee and it seems that the controversy could still be present for a few more days. The PS choose MP Hugo Pires as new committee chairman, but it seems that Mr Pires has a lot of dealings with real estate. He owns 50% of a real estate company, is also owner and manager of an architecture, engineering and construction company that also develops tourist accommodation. So, yeah, this may stick around for a few more days. We'll see.

The other story is Cavaco Silva's new memoirs. The former Prime Minister and President of the Republic has published the 2nd edition of his memoirs and he trashed everybody, expect Pedro Passos Coelho. The 2nd edition focus on the years between 2011 and 2016. Cavaco trashes his long time foe, Paulo Portas, saying his actions in the 2013 governmental crisis were "childlike", "irresponsible" and that he was "unpatriotic". Cavaco also hits on António Costa, current PM. Cavaco labels Costa as "an artist of never saying no" and "someone who pushes for later the problems of the economy and the country." Passos Coelho, former PM, is the only that is saved. Although Cavaco says that Passos is a bit naive, he admits that "he ushered a new cycle of growth and improvement of the Portuguese well-being".


Cover of Cavaco Silva's new book.

The reactions were expected. While PSD is silent, Rui Rio says he didn't read the book yet so he will not comment, the PS is furious. Many PS members and MPs criticize the lack of "sense of duty or state" of Cavaco Silva because he bashes people and politicians he had private conversations. Costa, on the other hand, decline to comment saying he didn't read the book also, but said that, for him, conversations between him and a head of state are just between both and no one else.

And then there's some other smaller stories: A candidate for the Socialist Youth leadership was caught making stuff up about her CV. Maria Begonha CV says she has a master degree in political science when she never finished it, her birth date is also modified and she made up that she led the students association of the Faculty of Social and Human Sciences (FCSH), Universidade Nova de Lisboa. Still, a funny story.

And then there's a controversy between the Interior minister and police unions. Last week, 3 dangerous felons escaped from a court in Porto after a police officer authorized one of the felons to say goodbay to his girlfriend. The felon stole the keys from the police and freed the other two. For 24 hours, a huge police operation was developed to find them. They were caught in a camping camp 34 kms (21 miles) from Porto city. During the moment, some police officers took photos of the 3 felons when they were caught and the minister was shocked by the police action and called it "unacceptable". Police unions were outraged by the ministers remarks and published more photos of elderly people that were, allegedly, beaten up by those 3 felons. But it seems that the photos were fake. Of course, this escalated into a full "twitter war" between the minister and police unions.


The photo, of the 3 felons in the moment of capture, in the center of the controversy.

And now, anti-racist organizations have published a photo of one the leaders of the police unions, the 2nd largest, in a meeting with the PNR, National Renewal Party, the biggest right-wing party in Portugal similar to FN or AfD, in 2009. The union leader met at least twice with the leader of PNR to discuss and alert to the situation of the police force. The union in question has already sent a memo to the media saying they "reject the ideas and policies proposed by the PNR".
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Mike88
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,438
Portugal


« Reply #1224 on: October 25, 2018, 04:19:02 PM »

Santana Lopes' s new party has been legalized by the Constitutional Court:

Santana Lopes's party, the Alliance, has been legalized by the Constitutional Court. The announcement was made by Santana Lopes, via facebook, and then confirmed by the Court's spokesperson. It is yet to be announced the abbreviation the party will have. The Alliance is now, officially, the 23rd registered party in Portugal. The party may also appear in polling data in the next few weeks.
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