WI-GOV (Marquette): Evers +1/+5

[Hollywood]

Just look at the Internals that includes 68% of voters that live within the Milwaukee City Limits. The end result is just a +1 Evers advantage among Likely Voters, and the wider gap of +5 among registered voters is primarily individuals that pick the independent in protest against Biden or the Democrat Party.  This poll gives the Democrats a turnout model that is better than 2018, and shifts the 2020 Party ID away from Republican to Democrat by 7 points among likely voters.  Yet, Evers kills Barnes by 6 points, and Michaels is statistically tied with Michaels among Likely Voters.  Democrats are blessed with 46% (+1 point advantage including leaners) of the voter share, and have essentially been reduced to their base + Democrat-Voting/leaning Independents.  It's becoming increasingly noticeable from the issues across all state polls that Republicans have a nice coalition of economic, education, foreign policy, immigration, and anti-woke.  The Democrats are the party of abortion, and I can see from polls like Marquette that it's not enough to gain substantive advantages in the suburbs.  I think all this loose talk of nuclear war mixed with inflation that is happening throughout Democrat and Neocon circles is also a possible X-Factor, because I've been finding pro-abortion and AA Democrats that are voting for Republicans due to fear that Biden's dealings with Russia, China, Iran, and their allies like BRICS, etc. is revealing huge cracks among the publics.  It's bubbling under the surface, particularly when exposed things like that NY nuclear attack PSA.    

I think there are some huge warning signs for Democrats that feel confident in blue states, because the polling models their preferred D outlets have been utilizing some fundamentally flawed assumption that were noticeable from the 2021 NJ and VA polls.  I have looked at some Republican and Democrat internals indicating soft support in Democrat areas, and big-time under-estimations in Trump Country.  Those polls indicating Republican victories in the Oregon Senate, as well as Districts in NY, CT, PA, NJ, NH, and other states due to white small town, suburban, and rural voters.  They have major problems in some solid districts in Texas, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, etc., due to shifts in Hispanic Voter priorities.  They are also seeing problems with black voter turnout.  It's also not as if they don't have weak candidates whom lean voters could completely abandon such as Fetterman.  

Despite polls showing strength, Democrats need to use all their resources to defend the GA, AZ, NV, and PA Senate, because FL, OH, and WI are most likely fools gold.  Why?  Because some of the internal politics at the district level are going to push Republicans closer to 50%, and these third party candidates like the one in 2021 VA will probably fall by the waist-side where they aren't taking votes away from Democrats due to attitudes about protesting Biden, far-left, and Democrat over-reach.  In a state like Florida, I think its clear that Rubio would be in a much closer race, or maybe in deep S###, if DeSantis wasn't buoying the entire ticket.  Demmings is actually a decent candidate that has a lot of money-propping up her image.  Probably one of the better Black Democrat Candidates in the Country.
And Rubio is hated by many Republicans (Party Leaders have discussed anti-Rubio sentiments at  Meetings, because they realize it's a problem).