Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[Ozymandias]

OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161

This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early...

Benjamin Lazarus ‏@ben_d_lazarus  8m8 minutes ago
(4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early

...which matches current Ohio EV exactly.

[Ozymandias]

OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161

This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early...

Benjamin Lazarus ‏@ben_d_lazarus  8m8 minutes ago
(4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early

...which matches current Ohio EV exactly.

And as it turns out that's no coincidence, since they weighted by the early vote (don't think anyone else does that):

"Of the 1194 total interviews, 497 were conducted among respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee or in-person, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These respondents were weighted down to an effective sample size of 160 so that the early vote sub-sample represents 17 percent of the overall sample, which is the percent of registered voters, as of the morning of November 4, 2016, who have voted early according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. The early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, race, and media market of the overall population of early voters in Ohio who had participated as of the morning of November 4, 2016"

[Ozymandias]

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2401

FLORIDA

Of the 65% (575/884) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 47
Trump - 43
Johnson - 2
Stein - 0
Other - 1

Rubio - 48
Murphy - 46
Other - 2

NORTH CAROLINA

Of the 67% (583/884) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 52
Trump - 40
Johnson - 2
Other - 2

Ross - 51
Burr - 43
Other - 2

Cooper - 56
McCrory - 40
Other - 1


 

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf

Of the 63% (504/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 49
Trump - 40

Ross - 52
Burr - 42

Cooper - 52
McCrory - 43

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.7.16.pdf

Of the 71% (607/853) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton still leads the early vote by roughly 8%"

[Ozymandias]

USA

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf

Of the 21% (242/1151) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 39

[Ozymandias]

USA

This 49-42 lead applies to the 37% (1360/3677) of respondents who said they already voted:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/95dcxi5lf1/econToplines_lv.pdf

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

[Ozymandias]

where did you get theses numbers? source?

I have separate posts with links for all of these polls earlier in this thread.

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

PPP: 73% (514 EV)-- Clinton +11 (52-41)

Keating: 68% (414 EV)-- Clinton +4 (44-40)

Magellan: 64% (322 EV)-- Clinton +6 (46-40)

Denver Post: 54% (300 EV)-- Clinton +17 (53-36)

YouGov: 28% (279 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)


There's a lot more variance in Clinton's polled EV leads in Colorado (though note that Trump's share is always between 36-41), but I think it's reasonable to assume that Clinton has at least a 6-pt lead among the 77% of the voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote).

[Ozymandias]

IOWA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Emerson: 37% (262 EV)-- Clinton +23 (57-34)

Selzer: 34% (272 EV)-- Clinton +22 (53-31)

Loras: 26% (131 EV)-- Clinton +28 (57-29)

Quinnipiac: 21% (166 EV)-- Clinton +34 (61-27)


So even though Democratic early vote share is down vs. 2012, and Clinton is behind in most Iowa polls, she actually appears to have at least a 20% lead among the 40% of voters who have already voted  (based on total 2012 vote).