Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Did all Greek Cypriots want that?

No, but I don't think there is much doubt a majority of the island's population did. The Greek Orthodox church strongly supported it and held sway over much of the population in the post-war era.

It's a shame the British colonial administration refused to hold a unification referendum in 1949 when Greece was a democracy and Turkey comparatively weaker.

[Lord Halifax]

I don't think this Russian/Turkey proxy war will not go the way Erdogan wants.

The problem for Armenia is that they can't count on unconditional and full-hearted Russian support. Russia is courting Erdogan and they sell weapons to both sides (although slightly better ones to Armenia), they prefer the status quo but it's unclear how many resources and how much political capital Russia would actually be prepared to spend to prop up Armenia.

[Lord Halifax]

You ‘Stand With Armenia’ guys do know that Artsakh is Azerbaijani according to International Law, right? None of you would ever have the same attitude towards Northern Cyprus.

Ah yes, because all attempted breakaway states should be viewed the same and definitely don't have differing levels of legitimacy depending on the circumstances of their independence movements.

They tick the same boxes, boo radley.

Cyprus had 80% Greeks and 18% Turks before the invasion (and 2% Armenians), Nagorno-Karabakh had a 75% Armenian majority when the Soviet Union was dissolved. If the principle of national self-determination had been followed Nagorno-Karabakh would have merged with Armenia and Cyprus with Greece.

Misleading. The occupied territory is much bigger than Nagorno-Karabakh proper. The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast had 76.9% Armenians in the 1989 census vs. 21.5% Azeris (and 1.0% Russians).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_Autonomous_Oblast#Demography

[Lord Halifax]

Useful reminder that there is a logical and relatively 'fair' solution to this long-term Question, of course.

Which is?

Armenia keeps Nagorno-Karabakh proper (the former Autonomous Oblast), but hands all other occupied territories back to Azerbaijan.

[Lord Halifax]

So effectively ethnic cleansing taking place in Europe, even if it is done out of fear/precaution and not by the Azeris directly. The mood in Azerbaijan is ecstatic over the last few days.

Nah, it's in Asia. The entire region is south of the watershed of the Greater Caucasus (hence the term Transcaucasia), which forms the border between Europe and Asia.

Ciscaucasia = Europe
Transcaucasia = Asia

[Lord Halifax]

This is really unfortunate for Armenians. If they don't essentially surrender now, they might be lucky to have any part of NK proper in another 30 years.

Why are Armenians interested in North Korea?

NK = Nagorno-Karabakh, would you prefer to have it abbreviated N-K?

[Lord Halifax]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

That'll affect faith in Russia as a reliable ally around the world.

"Moscow has spent more than a decade carefully crafting the image of a great power that jealously polices its droit de regard in most of the post-Soviet space, and that of a power that sticks with its allies for better or worse – be it Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, or Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. But Russia’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seems a major reversal of both of these tenets of Russian geopolitics. Why has Russia refrained from being at least more diplomatically supportive of Armenia, a fellow member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation? And why do Russian foreign policy statements on the war sound meeker and less critical of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and less supportive of Armenia, than those of countries such as France? There are several reasons for this apparent paradox."

https://ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid/

[Lord Halifax]

Azerbaijan did (technically) have international law on their side when they attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure Azeri territory.

Shelling Armenia? That's unambiguously an act of war, and totally unjustifiable. It's also the sort of thing that could trigger Armenian alliances with Iran and Russia.

Spoiler alert: Russia isn't going to do sh!t.

which means the Iranians will have to

[Lord Halifax]

Azerbaijan is clearly in the wrong here, but they have Israel and Turkey on their side while Armenia has Russia and Iran, so no surprise that the US isn't too interested in helping Armenia.

That is part of the story, but it's also the godforsaken geography: except from the air, America can't credibly project power into the region. Armenia is landlocked and a non-Black Sea navy couldn't access it through Georgia because the Montreaux convention is active. The only other ways to get to it are through Azerbaijan and Turkey, which want this to happen, or Iran and Russia, which wouldn't support a direct American intervention.

While it can be a fun exercise to point out "Western hypocrisy" (at least a lot of online types enjoy it) there really isn't any reason for the US to do anything before we know what the Iranians will do. They're hardly going to let Azerbaijan annex Armenia.

[Lord Halifax]

Also funny how despite the likes of RedVelvet and Compucomp arguing Atlas only cares about invasions when it’s geopolitically expedient, nearly everyone here has strongly condemned and supported sanctions against Azerbaijan (except for me but I am an exception)

Well, I will wait and see what the goal of the escalation is for Azerbaijan before I condemn them. If there goal is only to fully retake Nagorno-Karabakh, then I would support their right to use military force to reclaim their sovereign territory. However, if this is a war to conquer parts of Armenia's rightful territory, then that would've wrong and I would condemn the Azeris for it.

Azerbaijan retaking the rest of Nagorno-Karabakh would result in ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population. Nagorno-Karabakh has always had an Armenian majority, and there's no particular moral reason Azerbaijan should have it, it's just the old Soviet borders. Unlikely Ukraine where Russian possession of Crimea poses a military threat Azerbaijan is in no way threatened by Armenian possession of N-K. In general it's sensible to retain or reestablish the UN recognized international borders, but not if the price is ethnic cleansing and the transfer of territory from a (albeit flawed) democracy to a brutal dictatorship.

There is such a thing as being too principled, and principled about the wrong things.

[Lord Halifax]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

This conflict only started because Russia's losses in Ukraine showed some people that they were weak and now is the time to strike.

But if Azerbaijan makes a lot of gains, I expect Iran to invade Azerbaijan and overthrow the regime, which would anger Turkey.

Iran would have trouble doing that. Firstly, the Azerbaijani military is very well equipped, and would get further supplied by Turkey and Israel. Secondly, there are tons of Azeris in Iran who won't be happy and will keep the Iranians occupied...

The US would come to Aliyev's aid too in that scenario.

Aliyev isn't particularly popular with Iranian Azeris. On the contrary many (likely most) of them see Azerbaijan as a renegade territory that should rejoin "the Iranian motherland", from which it was unjustly separated as a result of the Russo-Persian wars in the early 19th century.

[Lord Halifax]

The US has taken a much stronger stance on the latest Azeri aggression than Russia and CSTO lol.
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570464658707947521

Iran's taken a pretty strong stance too. Strange part of the world.

The next step for an expansionist Azerbaijan is conquering NW Iran with its large Azerbaijani speaking population. It is strongly within their interest that Armenia survives.

Azerbaijan doesn't have a chance in hell of conquering any part of Iran, and apart from a tiny minority Iranian Azeris are not separatists dreaming of becoming part of a Greater Azerbaijan. Iran is an old empire perceived as a natural entity by most of its minorities.

Aliyev isn't particularly popular with Iranian Azeris. On the contrary many (likely most) of them see Azerbaijan as a renegade territory that should rejoin "the Iranian motherland", from which it was unjustly separated as a result of the Russo-Persian wars in the early 19th century.

[Lord Halifax]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

[Lord Halifax]

And FTR, Armenia would have to loved to be in a position to join the EU and NATO, but even if they weren’t rather involuntarily under the Russian “sphere of influence” the problem of Turkey raises its head. Russia hasn’t exactly been a good ally either; Moscow is Azerbaijan’s biggest source of weapons, for one, and they’re rather preoccupied by Putin’s catastrophically stupid war against Ukraine. That basically leaves Armenia with Iran. Yay even more sanctions and international isolation, and it’s not like Iran has much to offer in defense either, realistically.    

Unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan that both have tiny bits of territory north of the Greater Caucasus watershed Armenia is located fully within Asia which means it isn't eligible for EU membership.

Being fully within Asia wasn't much of an impediment for Cyprus though.

island nations are different, they aren't "within" a continent, just more or less adjacent to one.

[Lord Halifax]

Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty says that any "European state" that respects a set of principles (incl. democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law) may apply to join the EU, and that the question of whether a country is European is subject to political assessment by the EU institutions, so in principle the EU could decide that Armenia is a a European country. But the EU has never allowed a non-island country without any territory in geographical Europe to join (and e.g. requests from Morocco have been turned to due to them not being European) and I think it's obvious that Armenia, of all places, is not going to become the first such country. Not having territory in Europe provides the perfect excuse for the EU to say "partnership and no more" to Armenia.

It's just easier to allow an island state, say Cape Verde or an independent Greenland, to join than a small landlocked country in Asia or a coastal state in the Levant or North Africa for that matter. Granted Cyprus comes with its own particular set of problems due to being divided and having an unrecognized foreign statelet on its internationally recognized territory, but it's basically a special case that won't set any precedent so no reason to talk about it.