Beginning of the End of Northern Ireland?

[Lord Halifax]

But you have the problem of 5-10% of the population that is viscerally opposed to this. That would still be a huge problem with no easy solution. N

You could relocate the Ulster loyalists to Appalachia, they'd feel right at home.

[Lord Halifax]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

[Lord Halifax]

Remaining part of the UK still has a ten point lead. Support for Irish unity is higher than in most recent polls, but the drop in support for the union is not statistically significant. This is at most an argument that a border poll in two decades time might be close.

that's ignoring demographic change (UI leads among voters under 45 and pensioners are the most unionist) and that the poll has 52% saying they aspire to a UI at some point in the future (given a point over 10 years in the future) with only 44% saying they would never support leaving the UK.

It very much is not ignoring demographic change - that is the reason it might be close in two decades time, even if it isn't right now.

An "aspiration" towards a united Ireland isn't particularly meaningful, because it's hard to say what that might mean in practice - is that a "I'd like it, but it'll never happen", is it a theoretical maximum for support for a UI, is it a "we can look at that once we've fixed public services"? The word can bear any of those interpretations, without everybody agreeing meaning all of them.

If polls start showing support for a UI rising above 45%, it'll become a much more contentious issue. Right now it's just a way for politicians on both sides to rally their base and a displacement activity to avoid engaging with their day jobs.

assuming young people getting the vote during the next two decades would be at least as pro-UI as the youngest category in this poll and most who are 65+ now would be dead it'll result in a clear pro-UI majority - and those seem to be reasonable assumptions.