Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Lord Halifax]

So what exactly are the policy differences between the SNP and Alba? Are there any substantial differences at all? Does Alba have any unique selling points that would actually motivate any SNP voters to defect besides the big ego of Salmond?

My understanding is that Salmond (i don’t know whether this is official Alba ‘party policy’), wants to push the SNP in the direction of adopting a new currency as soon as practicable after a putatively successful independence vote. At the moment, as far as I can make out, the SNP’s official policy is to continue using sterling after independence, but without remaining in monetary union with the UK (something ruled out by the British government years ago). The transition to a new currency will only take place once six economic ‘tests’ (fiscal sustainability, sufficient reserves, good economic environment etc) have been passed. This could take a long time and as far as I’m aware the SNP membership actually voted at conference for a much more rapid transition to a new currency along the lines proposed by Salmond. Needless to say, both of these options are fraught with risk (the former, so-called ‘sterlingisation’, has only been adopted historically by less developed countries when their own currencies have been devalued to almost nothing), but they’re the only options on the table if the UK government holds the line on saying no to monetary union.

Of course, if Scotland plans to rejoin the EU as an independent state then Euro membership will be a necessity, so the above won’t matter very much in the long run, although that depends on how long the application process for the EU takes.

Have they considered forming a monetary union with some other small country that still has its own currency? E.g. one of the three Scandinavian countries. Might be an easier temporary solution than setting up their own since they're planning to eventually adopt the Euro anyway.

[Lord Halifax]

I don’t particularly see how the SNP can resile from committing itself to rejoining the EU, given how it has milked Scotland ‘being forced out of the EU against its will’ mercilessly over the last five years (plus committing to rejoin might help steady nerves in the financial/business sector if it does look like things are going to head south for the economy).

Wouldn't an EEA membership (the "Norway option") be sufficient?

[Lord Halifax]

And why did Salmond name the party Alba and Caledonia? Alba is whole of Britain

It means Scotland in Gaelic.

"Historically, the term refers to Britain as a whole and is ultimately based on the Indo-European root for "white".[2] It later came to be used by Gaelic speakers in the form of Alba (dative Albainn, genitive Albann, now obsolete) as the name given to the former kingdom of the Picts which when first used in this sense (around the time of king Causantín mac Áeda (Constantine II, 943–952)) had expanded."

[Lord Halifax]

When will we get the results?

[Lord Halifax]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

Does he mean on their own? I thought that was more or less out of the question after Dumbarton (unless they win Aberdeen West).

[Lord Halifax]

Off topic but how close and what is needed and likely for a English assembly that is like the Scottish one

Not very likely. The context of the original Anglo-Scottish Union was that Scotland got economic advantages and England ensured that Scotland would not be a hostile foreign threat. Time has largely erased that context.

I think the problem, from the point of view of UK level politicians, is that an English Parliament and Government (with comparable powers to the Scottish equivalents) would be over mighty subjects. The English First Minister might well wonder why we keep all these useless Westminster parasites, when it is the English authorities who carry out all the governmental functions most people care about in England.

I could easily see the English level authorities dissolving the Union, if they see no real advantage in its continuing. Something might happen rather comparable to Boris Yeltsin, as the leader of Russia, humiliating Mikhail Gorbachev in the last days of the Soviet Union.

What about going the German route and dividing England into a number of "länder" loosely based on the old Anglo-Saxon kingdoms: Northumbria, Mercia, Wessex, Sussex, Kent and East Anglia-Essex and let (Greater) London be a separate state like Berlin? Afaik none of those would have a bigger share of the UK's population than NRW's of the German.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could then simply be states with slightly more autonomy than the rest (or perhaps only Scotland). Cornwall has a population the size of Bremen and could also be it's own state. It seems to work fine in Germany that the size of the states vary widely.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

SNP 40.3, Greens 8.1 and Alba 1.7 = 50.1%, a majority for the pro-independence parties.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1391121713484685312

SNP 40.3, Greens 8.1 and Alba 1.7 = 50.1%, a majority for the pro-independence parties.

Barely. To all intents and purposes, the Scottish electorate is split down the middle regarding independence, which is hardly a mandate for another referendum. That said, there was no mandate for Brexit either, and yet here we are....  

A majority is a majority. It doesn't really matter in this context how small it is since it eliminates the unionist argument that the pro-independence parties "only" won a majority of seats but not votes.