2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[Lord Halifax]

The betting markets now have Moran as the favorite. Why is she suddenly considered more likely than Davey?

[Lord Halifax]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.

But has there really been that big a turnover in the LibDem membership? Most members are presumably people who joined before the coalition.

[Lord Halifax]

The LibDem's Federal Appeals Panel has ruled that the party's Federal Board can only revoke the timetable and suspend a leadership election in "exceptional circumstances" and not as far into the future as May 2021, unless the "exceptional circumstances" continue until then. So the Board has to review the election timetable and come up with an earlier date.

[Lord Halifax]

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

I suppose that party would have to be the Tories given their structural advantage, how likely is such a result?