Colombian presidential election, June 17 2018

[Lord Halifax]

Fingers crossed for a Duque win. Not because I'm a fan of him, but because I think Petro is dangerous.

Vargas Lleras is most likely to finish second. Would you still support Duque over him?

[Lord Halifax]

Fingers crossed for a Duque win. Not because I'm a fan of him, but because I think Petro is dangerous.

Vargas Lleras is most likely to finish second. Would you still support Duque over him?

Are you crazy? Polling clearly indicates a Duque/Petro runoff.

Machines are more important than polls. You didn't answer my question.

[Lord Halifax]

Vargas Lleras is most likely to finish second. Would you still support Duque over him?

I don't why you would claim that Vargas is 'most likely' to finish second. There's a good possibility that he might (it's probably more likely that he upsets Petro for second than Fajardo), but from there to claim that he is 'most likely' to finish second is still a major stretch. Cifras/Conceptos' models are untested and are based on the assumption that the machines will be able to transfer a rather high percentage of their March votes to the candidate, which is questionable, particularly given that Vargas Lleras' campaign doesn't have much momentum and, more importantly, doesn't seem to be particularly flushed with cash (unlike the Odebrecht-funded Santos 2010/2014 campaigns) and when the machines don't receive the cash they need from central office, you get something like the 2014 first round, the plebiscite or Cartagena's mayoral by-election a few weeks ago. As I explained, presidential elections are far less defined by machines than congressional or local elections, although you still need both (which is why Duque will probably win, because he has both, unlike everyone else).

Cool, I just have more faith in machines than polls when it comes to a place like Colombia. Even in a presidential election.

[Lord Halifax]

The voto en blanco was the niche of the país nacional if I've ever seen one.

What is the país nacional?

[Lord Halifax]

I have lots more to say, but I'm not quite sure where to take this or if people have moved on to other things. Is there anything, or any particular region, you'd like me to do some analysis/commentary for?

Please continue. It's very interesting.