If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 12, 2024, 02:00:32 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls?
#1
Pleased
 
#2
Relaxed
 
#3
Nervous
 
#4
Panicked
 
#5
In Trump We Trust
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 126

Author Topic: If you're a Clinton supporter, how would you describe your mood about the polls?  (Read 1730 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« on: September 07, 2016, 10:28:22 PM »

They should be at least nervous. I think Trump is going to vastly outperform the polls; I think we'll see that there are a lot of Trump voters out there who weren't willing to admit to supporting Trump to pollsters but will do so in the secrecy of the voting booth.

thus far there has been no evidence of that. Only evidence of the opposite: people who are saying they'll vote for Trump, but as soon as they get in that voting booth, reconsider that choice. And admittedly, even evidence of that is scant.

Well there can't be any definitive evidence for it (or against it for that matter) until the results of the election are in. But we do have some circumstantial evidence that supports my concern, and that is that Trump does better I online polls than in live polls.
538 did a piece on this... Trump actually underperformed his polls by about a point during the primaries. Now, 1 point isn't a significant difference, and it may well have been noise, but it definitely doesn't point to a "Shy Trump effect".
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 11:12:31 AM »

Every last week poll underestimated the margin. Every single one.

No. Of the twelve polls conducted the week before the vote, three showed a lead for Leave, and one was a tie. I agree that's hardly impressive, but it wasn't every single one.
Huh Yes.
Brexit won by 3.8%. Every single poll underestimated Brexit. Some polls by 2% (the best one), some by 14% (worst one), on average by 6%. So yeah, every single poll underestimated Brexit. During the last week.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Polls got him almost perfectly right, when he was getting about 30%-40% (~his hard-core base).
When he started to get 40-60% (after NY), i.e. even those who hadn't Trump as first choice started to vote for him, the polls started to underestimate him.

It is not an evidence, but it might be an indication.
OTOH, Trump was rising steadily in the polls during that period, so it is understandable that he would end up higher on Election Day.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.03 seconds with 13 queries.