W Bush was strong in CA in 2004 (user search)
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  W Bush was strong in CA in 2004 (search mode)
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Author Topic: W Bush was strong in CA in 2004  (Read 1343 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: July 07, 2020, 05:53:11 PM »

It still blows me away that Bush 04 lost CA by "only" 10 points: the strongest GOP performance in the state since his dad won it in 1988. Yes, the 9/11 attacks helped him as the incumbent, but he lost NY (the state most affected by the attacks) by 18 points. And one would think that Bush, a Texan evangelical Christian, was cultural anathema in California.
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Arbitrage1980
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Posts: 770
« Reply #1 on: July 07, 2020, 07:12:05 PM »

He did do pretty well with Hispanic voters in 2004, and outreach to those voters was a major part of both his 2000 and 2004 campaign. I think Karl Rove once even suggested that Bush could win California, and even if he didn't believe that he did at least help to create a strategy that gave Bush the best performance among Hispanic voters for a Republican on record. He won about 43% to 47% (depending on the source) of the Hispanic vote nationally. That coupled with a strong showing in the suburbs no doubt helped him out in California and made the race much closer than it otherwise might have been. It probably was crucial in his winning New Mexico, as well.

The early 2000s GOP really wanted to expand it's appeal to new demographic groups, but clearly they have given up on that at this point. But Bush clearly shows that the strategy can yield some results.



The studies done after the election show that Bush probably got closer to 40% of the Latino vote rather than the 45% that was initially reported. It's still a very strong showing for a Republican, better than Reagan's. Bush 04 was the opposite of Trump 16: strong with Latinos and college educated suburban whites but weaker with working class whites in the Rust Belt.

The Bush strategy no longer works. College educated whites are far more liberal than they used to be, and culture is driving the political battles moreso than economics or foreign policy.
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