What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year? (user search)

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2016 U.S. Presidential Election

What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year? (search mode)

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Poll

Question:

What are the odds that Clinton wins NE-02 and Trump wins ME-02?

#1 0-24.9%		42 (79.2%)
#2 25-49.9%		8 (15.1%)
#3 50-74.9%		3 (5.7%)
#4 75-100%		0 (0%)

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Partisan results

Total Voters: 53

Author

Topic: What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year? (Read 873 times)

Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member

Posts: 770

Re: What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year?

« on: August 29, 2016, 09:52:40 PM »

Obama won NE 02 by about 1.2% in 2008, when he won the national popular vote by 7.2%. Given that Hillary's ground game won't be as strong as Obama's, I don't think she wins it unless she wins nationwide by 8+ points.

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Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member

Posts: 770

Re: What are the odds that Maine and Nebraska both split electoral votes this year?

« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2016, 07:34:44 PM »

Brad Ashford, a democrat, won the congressional seat in NE 02 in 2014. He was one of only two dems to defeat an incumbent house republican that year. So I wonder if the district is moving left in recent years.

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