Many of the state's smaller metros (Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe) have stagnated or are still swinging and trending R as they have been since at least 2000. Jefferson seems like the only GOP parish that could reasonably flip anytime soon, as all the other fairly urbanized parishes are either still losing Dem support (as with the above) or are such blowouts that even big trends barely dent them (Bossier, St. Tammany). I agree that the GOP still has plenty of room to fall in metropolitan areas if current trends continue, but I don't think it'll be enough without a stronger baseline elsewhere. As much as Georgia's blue trend is attributed almost solely to Metro Atlanta, those trends would be meaningless if smaller metros such as Savannah or Augusta voted like Lafayette or Lake Charles, or even the red-leaning smaller metros such as Valdosta or Warner Robins, which now at least give Democrats 40%.
Yeah exactly, and in Louisiana people more switched to the GOP outside of metro New Orleans due to the culture wars, but I don't believe they're really into the small government stuff the way that Republicans in other places are.
If anything, I think the GOP is becoming a better and better fit for Louisiana, and if anything the state will become more solidly Republican.
