Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[Lechasseur]

So Armenia called for Russian support and Russia said "Yes, we will intervene if Armenia is attacked inside the territory of Armenia proper".

Which means "We will stand aside while Azerbaijan and Turkey take all of NK".

That'll affect faith in Russia as a reliable ally around the world.

"Moscow has spent more than a decade carefully crafting the image of a great power that jealously polices its droit de regard in most of the post-Soviet space, and that of a power that sticks with its allies for better or worse – be it Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine, or Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Belarus. But Russia’s reaction to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict seems a major reversal of both of these tenets of Russian geopolitics. Why has Russia refrained from being at least more diplomatically supportive of Armenia, a fellow member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation? And why do Russian foreign policy statements on the war sound meeker and less critical of Turkey and Azerbaijan, and less supportive of Armenia, than those of countries such as France? There are several reasons for this apparent paradox."

https://ecfr.eu/article/a_captive_ally_why_russia_isnt_rushing_to_armenias_aid/

Yeah I personally wouldn't be surprised if Armenia ends up in the Western camp pretty soon after this.

Which is ironic, as I think Armenia were traditionally on the Russian side and Azerbaijan the Western one. Looks like that will flip now.

[Lechasseur]

I mean, was anyone actually expecting Armenia to be routed so completely?

I didn't

[Lechasseur]

Armenia has just invoked CSTO’s self-defence clause:

https://www.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1570042320363589634
It claims Azerbaijan now occupies its territory (presumably, not just Artsakh).

This is a win-win: helps Armenia, and hopefully diverts some Russian troops from Ukraine too.

It’s a win-win if Russia actually sends troops. They aren’t likely to yet, in my view. The borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not strictly charted in law, allowing Russia to weasel out of article 4 until Azerbaijan starts taking major settlements in Armenia proper.

Edit: if Russia does nothing then, CSTO will lose a lot of credibility, but I think Russia is willing to make that sacrifice for the sake of its war in Ukraine.

If Russia does nothing than CSTO probably collapsed like the League of Nations.

If Russia does nothing than it is proven to be a worthless ally.

And yeah Russia seems to have totally destroyed its credibility this year, even with its allies. It's turning itself into a pariah state.

[Lechasseur]

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/15/update-azerbaijan-and-armenia-agree-to-call-a-truce/

A truce has reportedly been agreed, but Iran refuses any changes to the border and has mobilized troops at the border, while France and Greece have reportedly offered Armenia military aid.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220915-armenia-azerbaijan-agree-on-cease-fire-after-new-clashes

According to France 24, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a ceasefire.

And according to the article, the protests yesterday were sparked by rumours that the Armenian Prime Minister had agreed to cede Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan in exchange for Azeri forces pulling out of Armenia, something that PM Pashinyan denies.

[Lechasseur]

It’s genuinely appalling the lack of coverage this has gotten compared to the slightest discontent between Israel-Palestine.

Well, at least you can count on Adam Schiff talking about this.

I wonder how long it'll take until we start hearing the natsec ghouls say it's okay for Azerbaijan to ethnically cleanse Armenians because Russia and Armenia are allies.

I'm seeing plenty of people saying it Armenia's fault for making a poor choice of allies, as if cutting ties with Russia would have caused the west favor them over Turkey and Azerbaijan. Then you also have the clowns who insist that Armenia needs to "accept reality" and improve relations with the country that still denies their genocide and the ethnonationist regime to their east, as if they would have been willing to do the same had they been in Armenia's position.

Yeah, blaming Armenia for this is straight-up victim-blaming and unconscionable. People with a principled view of foreign policy (admittedly not many of these people around) should really know better.

Agreed

[Lechasseur]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220916-macron-voices-his-support-for-armenian-sovereignty-amid-azerbaijan-ceasefire

Emmanuel Macron has stated his support for Armenia's sovereignty

[Lechasseur]

Armenia is a member of the Council of Europe. It's not considered to be less European than Georgia or Azerbaijan by absolutely anybody.

Exactly, either they're all European or none of them are

[Lechasseur]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/19/armenian-protesters-demand-their-country-leaves-moscow-led-military-alliance

There's been a protest in Yerevan demanding that Armenia leave the CSTO.

Frankly it should. If Russia won't protect Armenia, it has no reason to stay allied with it.

Armenia should get closer to the West.