Will Macron get reelected? (user search)
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  Will Macron get reelected? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will Macron get reelected?  (Read 7053 times)
Lechasseur
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Posts: 10,799


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

« on: January 02, 2021, 09:34:08 AM »

I think he will simply because half the population would prefer him to any likely runoff opponent. He'd obviously beat Le Pen again. Against someone like Fillon he'd also get the reluctant support of the left. Meanwhile the right would definitely back him over someone like Melenchon.

French runoffs don't always work by a strict median-voter paradigm (otherwise Mitterrand would have won 1974 but lost 1981, for example). Sometimes a candidate wins because they're the most charismatic, or there's a huge anti-incumbent backlash, or the time is right in some other way, even when it seems like they're too extreme on paper.

I agree that Le Pen and Mélenchon would both probably lose, but I'm not necessarily convinced that less toxic figures from the right or the left would. I could see two general profiles who could defeat FBM: either someone from the ""social"" wing of the right (ie mildly/performatively #populist Purple heart with a general law-and-order vibe but not mouth-foamingly xenophobic, like Xavier Bertrand), or someone who's able to consolidate both the yuppie bobo left who was disappointed by FBM and the #populist Purple heart left at the same time. That's not an easy task, of course, but it's what allowed so many ecologist mayors to win last year, so it's far from impossible.

What do you mean by Mitterrand winning in 1974 but losing in 1981 instead of it being the other way round like IRL with the median-voter paradigm? What do you mean by that?

That being said, essentially what happened IRL is VGE won in 1974 because he was a young modernizer at a time when that's what France wanted, and he lost in 1981 because Chirac told his supporters behind closed doors to vote for Mitterrand (and the VGE vs Chirac rivalry I think played a big part in Chirac losing in 1988, as a lot of UDF voters who logically should have been voting for the non-left candidate broke for Mitterrand in the second round. While I do think that's in big part due to the fact that Mitterrand was probably the most charismatic and leader like president France has had along with De Gaulle, I think part of it as well is a lot of UDF voters didn't like Chirac and also weren't comfortable with his pre-1990s Euroscepticism (Chirac became pro-EU in the early 1990s when he understood he'd never become president without supporting it).

Also, how is Xavier Bertrand? What do you think of him? How different is he from Macron in your opinion? And also, what do you mean by being law and order without being xenophobic? How different is he from other LR politicians?

And yeah, I think the left could do quite well if they'd just agree on one non-Melenchon candidate to run. Who do you think would be the best person for the left to run? I'm thinking Anne Hidalgo, but I'd like to hear what you think.
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Lechasseur
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*****
Posts: 10,799


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2021, 09:35:50 AM »

Probably, but I still get somewhat of an inkling he'll be Jospin'd.

Frankly it's not impossible.

He even lost my dad's support, and he was his biggest cheerleader until this year.

If he has a serious non-Le Pen challenger in either round, his reelection bid is in huge trouble imo.

And the scary thing is he's disliked enough by most people I could see Le Pen winning because so many people just stay home this time round, even though I think Macron is still favoured against Le Pen.
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Lechasseur
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*****
Posts: 10,799


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2021, 12:51:32 PM »


That article is a year old

That's from January last year, no one is going to be stating they're running for president 2 years out and especially during a relatively competitive reelection campaign (this was 2 months before the mayoral election first round).

I think she will run, it's not like PS really have anyone else.
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